JSOMA Breakout Design Group Simulation

1. JSOMA Breakout Design Group Simulation Enduring Freedom in Chaos

2. Simulation Purpose and Objectives SIMULATION PURPOSE: • PROVIDE A VENUE THROUGH WHICH THE 2013 – 2014 JSMOA CLASS CAN DEMONSTRATE KNOWLEDGE OF THE THEMES AND TOPICS COVERED DURING THE ACADEMIC YEAR IN A COMPETITIVE SETTING BASED UPON A REALISTIC STRATEGIC PROBLEM. • HAVE FUN (POTENTIALLY “SERIOUS” FUN – SOME DEBATE STILL REMAINS…) SIMULATION OBJECTIVES: • THE SIMULATION CONSTRUCT WILL INCORPORATE BI-LATERAL AND MULTI-LATERAL DIPLOMATIC EXCHANGES (UNC / US ARMY WAR COLLEGE EXERCISE MODEL) BETWEEN FIVE PRIMARY COMPETING TEAMS IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES AT THE EXPENSE OF OTHER TEAMS’ SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES WITHIN A REGIONAL STABILIZATION SCENARIO. THESE EXCHANGES SHOULD INCORPORATE CONCEPTS AND COURSES OF ACTION INCLUSIVE OF ALL THE INSTRUMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER. NEGOTIATION STRATEGIES WILL DRAW UPON THE THEMES AND TOPICS COVERED THROUGHOUT THE JSOMA PROGRAM. NO WRITTEN DELIVERABLES WILL BE REQUIRED FROM THE TEAMS DURING THE SIMULATION. EACH TEAM MUST VERBALLY NEGOTIATE IN ORDER TO SECURE ALLIANCES AND TREATIES, CONTAIN AND DETER THREATS, AND INCREASE AND EXPAND THEIR REGIONAL AUTONOMY AND INFLUENCE IN ORDER TO MEET SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES. A SHORT WRITTEN AAR WILL BE DUE FROM EACH TEAM FOLLOWING THE EXERCISE.

3. General Simulation Scenario • THE UNITED STATES AND AFGHAN BI-LATERAL SECURITY AGREEMENT NEGOTIATIONS WERE PLAGUED BY DELAY, DISSENT, AND DISRUPTION THROUGHOUT A CHAOTIC AND CORRUPT ELECTION PERIOD THROUGHOUT 2014 IN WHICH PRESIDENT HAMID KARZAI RETAINED CONTROL OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN (GIROA). • THE LAST US AND NATO FORCES DEPARTED AFGHANISTAN ON 31 DECEMBER 2014 WHEN PRESIDENT KARZAI REFUSED TO SIGN A STATUS OF FORCES AGREEMENT AND BROKE OFF NEGOTIATIONS FOR A BI-LATERAL SECURITY AGREEMENT, PUBLICALLY DECLARING THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN (GIROA) NO LONGER NEEDED WESTERN SUPPORT FOR INTERNAL STABILITY. • BY JANUARY 2016, TWELVE MONTHS AFTER THE US / NATO WITHDRAWAL, PRESIDENT KARZAI IS OVERTHROWN BY A RENEWED TALIBAN EFFORT BASED IN QUETTA, PAKISTAN. THE AUTONOMOUS STATE OF THE ISLAMIC CALIPHATE OF GREATER PASHTUNISTAN (ICGP) IS FORMED FROM THE PASHTU TRIBAL MAJORITY WITHIN SOUTHERN AFGHANISTAN AND WESTERN PAKISTAN. THE STATE LEADERSHIP’S PUBLIC FACE IS THE TALIBAN, BUT IS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE HAQQANI CRIMINAL NETWORK AND CORE AL-QAEDA PERSONALITIES. • THE NON-PASHTU TRIBES IN NORTHERN AFGHANISTAN UNITE BEHIND HAZARA TRIBAL LEADERSHIP AND MAINTAIN THE GIROA AND HAVE ASKED THE UNITED STATES AND NATO FOR ASSISTANCE. THE US AND NATO HAVE AGREED TO ASSIST AND ADVISE THE GIROA. THE EXACT LIMITS OF INTERACTION HAVE YET TO BE DETERMINED. • UNDER INCREASED INTERNAL PRESSURE FROM THE PASHTU CULTURAL UNIFICATION, PAKISTAN FRACTURES. THE REMNANTS OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN, CONTROLLED SOLELY BY THE INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE (ISI) ORGANIZATION (IRP/ISI), MAINTAIN A TENUOUS CONTROL OVER THE GOVERNMENT’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS. • THE REPUBLIC OF INDIA (ROI) AND THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN (IROI) HAVE SIGNIFICANT INTERESTS AND SECURITY CONCERNS IN THE REGION AND MANEUVER FOR INFLUENCE AND ADVANTAGE AMIDST THE CHAOS. • EMERGENT IN THE SCENARIO IS A PAKISTANI LOOSE NUKE SITUATION. THIS GROUP COULD BE PLAYED BY THE JSOMA PROFESSORS OR THE SIMULATION CONTROL GROUP. THIS GROUP’S INTENT IS TO UPSET THE SIMULATION’S BALANCE AND FACILITATE AN AGENDA CHANGE FOR ALL PARTICIPANTS.

4. General Simulation Construct • FIVE PRIMARY TEAMS (ICGP, GIROA, IRP/ISI, ROI, IROI) WILL COMPETE FOR REGIONAL STABILIZATION AND SECURITY OVERTLY, AND REGIONAL POWER AND LEGITIMACY COVERTLY. A SIXTH TEAM (LOOSE NUKE GROUP) WILL INTERACT WITH EACH OF THE FIVE PRIMARY TEAMS, OFFERING ADVANTAGE AND THREAT, AND GENERALLY FORCE COMPETITION AND / OR COOPERATION TO CONTAIN OR DIRECT THE LOOSE NUKE. • EACH TEAM WILL PLAN FOR, REQUEST, AND EXECUTE BI-LATERAL AND / OR MULTI-LATERAL DIPLOMATIC NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE OTHER TEAMS IN ORDER TO FORWARD THEIR RESPECTIVE AGENDAS. • EACH PRIMARY TEAM WILL HAVE MAJOR AND MINOR OBJECTIVES WHICH THEY WILL ATTEMPT TO ACCOMPLISH THROUGHOUT THE SIMULATION (TREATIES, TERRITORIAL GAINS, ALLIANCES, ETC.). MAJOR OBJECTIVES WILL BE WORTH MORE POINTS THAN THE MINOR OBJECTIVES, BUT ARE MORE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. EACH TEAM’S MAJOR AND MINOR OBJECTIVES DIRECTLY OPPOSE THOSE OF THE OTHER TEAMS, THUS ENSURING THAT THE PRIMARY TEAMS WILL NEGOTIATE ACROSS COMPETING INTERESTS TO ACHIEVE THEIR OBJECTIVES. • AT THE END OF THE SIMULATION, THE PRIMARY TEAM THAT ACCOMPLISHED THE MOST OF THEIR OBJECTIVES WINS. • THE SIMULATION CONTROL GROUP WILL UTILIZE TWO METHODS TO FACILITATE COMPETITION AND INFLUENCE THE SIMULATION: A PUBLIC “SCOREBOARD” INDICATING TEAMS’ RESPECTIVE RANKINGS, AND THE “MEDIA” WHICH WILL DISSEMINATE HEADLINES THROUGHOUT THE SIMULATION GENERALLY INTENDED TO INFLAME, INSTIGATE, DECEIVE, AND AMUSE ALL PARTIES INVOLVED…. FACT IS NOT NECESSARILY A LIMITING FACTOR FOR EITHER THE SCOREBOARD, OR THE MEDIA.

5. Simulation Execution Timeline MONDAY, 19 MAY 2014 • 0900 – 1200: SIMULATION INTRODUCTION AND INITIAL COLLECTIVE EXCHAGE. THE SIMULATION CONTROL GROUP WILL INTRODUCE THE SCENARIO, THE CONSTRUCT, AND BEGIN INSTIGATING COMPETITION. • 1300 – 1600: TEAMS WILL ENGAGE IN BI-LATERAL AND MULTI-LATERAL DIPLOMATIC EXCHANGES IN PURSUIT OF THEIR RESPECTIVE AGENDAS AND OBJECTIVES. TUESDAY, 20 MAY 2014 • 0900 – 1200: TEAMS WILL ENGAGE IN BI-LATERAL AND MULTI-LATERAL DIPLOMATIC EXCHANGES IN PURSUIT OF THEIR RESPECTIVE AGENDAS AND OBJECTIVES. • 1300 – 1600: SECOND COLLECTIVE EXCHANGE IN A GROUP SETTING. THE SIMULATION CONTROL GROUP WILL INTRODUCE THE LOOSE NUKE PROBLEM AND FACILITATE DISCUSSION, DEBATE, AND ARGUMENT. WEDNESDAY, 21 MAY 2014 • 0900 – 1200: TEAMS WILL ENGAGE IN BI-LATERAL AND MULTI-LATERAL DIPLOMATIC EXCHANGES IN PURSUIT OF THEIR RESPECTIVE AGENDAS AND OBJECTIVES. • 1300 – 1600: TEAMS WILL ENGAGE IN BI-LATERAL AND MULTI-LATERAL DIPLOMATIC EXCHANGES IN PURSUIT OF THEIR RESPECTIVE AGENDAS AND OBJECTIVES. THURSDAY, 22 MAY 2014 • 0900 – 1200: FINAL COLLECTIVE EXCHANGE TO ADDRESS THE MOST PRESSING ISSUES, FACILITATE PUBLIC DISAGREEMENT, AND GENERALLY FORCE AN UPSET AT THE LAST MINUTE. - EVENING (TBD): SOCIAL EVENT. VENUE AND FUNDING TBD. INTENT IS TO CELEBRATE THE END OF THE ACADEMIC YEAR.

6. Simulation Task Organization SIMULATION CONTROL GROUP MIKE M. – STEVE G. – JAMON O. – CHAD M. – SCOTT D. – JAIME V. ISLAMIC CALIPHATE OF GREATER PASHTUNISTAN STEVE E. – BRYANT S. – JAMES S. – (4 X JSOMA) GOVERNMENT OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN KAEL L. – ALICIA A. – TRAVIS J. – (4 X JSOMA) ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN (INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE) MIKE N. – RYAN D. – SCOTT D. – (4 X JSOMA) REPUBLIC OF INDIA KITE F. – DAVE S. – ERIC J. – (4 X JSOMA) ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN MARCUS F. – DOUG K. – WILL M. – (4 X JSOMA) LOOSE NUKE GROUP COULD BE PLAYED / MANAGED BY THE JSOMA PROFESSORS, THE SIMULATION CONTROL GROUP, FIELD MARSHALL VON BASSFORD, ETC. ADDITIONAL PLAYERS (TISS, SOF COMMUNITY, ETC.) CAN BE DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE FIVE PRIMARY TEAMS.

7. Administrative Notes - THROUGHOUT OUR DISCUSSION, PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT, REHEARSALS, AND AFTER ACTION REVIEW, THE BREAKOUT DESIGN GROUP COURSE INTENT IS TO LEAVE BEHIND A SELF-CONTAINED “GAME IN A BOX” THAT CAN BE UTILIZED BY FUTURE JSOMA CLASSES. • THE BREAKOUTEX@JSOMA.ORG ADDRESS SHOULD BE CC’D FOR ALL OFFICIAL TRAFFIC REGARDING THE SIMULATION. • PLEASE USE THE JSOMA BREAKOUT DESIGN GROUP WEBSITE AS A REPOSITORY FOR ALL PRODUCTS (THROUGH DR. BASSFORD) TO ASSIST WITH THE OFFICIAL RECORD OF THE PROCESS. • PLEASE USE THIS SLIDE FORMAT FOR ALL FUTURE PRODUCTS. (FONT: HELVETICA, SMALL CAPS, ETC.) • ALL PRODUCTS NEED TO BE DEVELOPED WITH A PROFESSIONAL ACADEMIC AUDIENCE IN MIND, RATHER THAN OUR NORMAL AUDIENCE FOR MILITARY PRODUCTS.

8. Simulation Way Ahead Plan 23 JANUARY 2014: • UPDATED CONCEPT PRESENTATION – MIKE M. • SIGNIFICANT EMOTIONAL ISSUES DISCUSSION (WHAT NEEDS TO BE CHANGED BEFORE WE MOVE FORWARD?) • WAY AHEAD PLAN DISCUSSION (FOR SYLLABUS PRODUCTION) – MIKE M. • SIMULATION SCENARIO DISCUSSION – JAMON O. / SCOTT D. • SIMULATION CONSTRUCT DISCUSSION – CHAD M. / STEVE G. / JAIME V. 30 JANUARY 2014: • FINAL SYLLABUS DUE FOR REVIEW – MIKE M. • DRAFT SIMULATION SCENARIO DUE FOR REVIEW – JAMON O. / SCOTT D. • DRAFT SIMULATION CONSTRUCT DUE FOR REVIEW – CHAD M. / STEVE G. / JAIME V. - TEAM MAJOR AND MINOR OBJECTIVES DISCUSSION – TEAMS (SPECIFICALLY…) 06 FEBRUARY 2014: • DRAFT TEAM MAJOR AND MINOR OBJECTIVES DUE FOR REVIEW (COMPARTMENTED) – TEAMS (SPECIFICALLY….) • SIMULATION VENUE REQUIREMENTS DISCUSSION – STEVE G. / JAIME V. • TEAM SCENARIO BACKGROUND INFORMATION DISCUSSION – TEAMS (SPECIFICALLY…) 13 FEBRUARY 2014: - SIMULATION VENUE PLAN DUE FOR REVIEW – STEVE G. / JAIME V. • TEAM SCENARIO BACKGROUND INFORMATION PRODUCTS DUE FOR REVIEW – TEAMS (SPECIFICALLY…) • ADDITIONAL PARTICIPANTS DISCUSSION AND INVITATION – TEAMS (SPECIFICALLY…) 24 – 28 FEBRUARY 2014: • RESEARCH AND WRITING WEEK AT NDU – FORT MCNAIR • MEETING WITH CASL’S ELLIE BARTELLS (READING ASSIGNMENTS…) • MEETINGS WITH ALAN MISENHEIMER, DOS DIRECTOR, OFFICE OF ANALYSIS FOR THE NEAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA BUREAU OF INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH

9. Simulation Way Ahead Plan 20 FEBRUARY 2014: - FOG OF WAR DAY. RESERVED FOR SOMETHING THAT WE ARE MISSING THUS FAR…. CONFIRMATION OF REHEARSAL SCHEDULE AND REQUIREMENTS. ALL EXTERNAL INVITATIONS COMPLETE – TEAMS (SPECIFICALLY…) 06 MARCH 2014: - REHEARSAL OF SIMULATION INTRODUCTION AND INITIAL COLLECTIVE EXCHANGE – SIMULATION CONTROL GROUP 13 MARCH 2014: • REHEARSAL OF DIPLOMATIC EXCHANGE PROCESS (BI-LATERAL AND MULTI-LATERAL SCHEDULING PROCESS, MEETING LENGTHS, FORMALIZATION OF DECISIONS, ETC.) – TEAMS (SPECIFICALLY…) 20 MARCH 2014: - REHEARSAL OF LOOSE NUKE INTRODUCTION AND SECOND COLLECTIVE EXCHANGE – SIMULATION CONTROL GROUP 03 APRIL 2014: - REHEARSAL OF FINAL COLLECTIVE EXCHANGE, SCOREBOARD PROCEDURES, AND MEDIA PROCEDURES – SIMULATION CONTROL GROUP 10 APRIL 2014: • FINAL CLASS MEETING. RESOLVE ANY REMAINING ISSUES. DISSEMINATE SIMULATION MATERIALS TO TEAMS. IDENTIFY AND TASK SCENARIO SET-UP REQUIREMENTS. 19 – 22 MAY 2014: - SCENARIO EXECUTION