USD259 Estimating Separation Rates

1. USD259Estimating Separation Rates Center for Economic Development and Business Research W. Frank Barton School of Business Wichita State University Presented at Wichita Area Outlook Conference February 14, 2007 Janet Harrah, director Debra Franklin, regional labor force analyst

2. Separations • Total separations • identify the flow of individuals leaving an occupation for any reason, without regard to persons entering the occupation (total recruitment needs). • Net separations • summarize the movement of workers into and out of an occupation over a specific period • quantify the need for new entrants and if training is required, identify minimum training requirement

3. Total and Net Occupational Entrants and Separations USD259 2005-2006

4. Net Separations Methodology • Employment data • By age • Two points in time • If employment in an age group has declined over five years from the base-year age group to the next older age group, the decline is recorded as a net separation from that occupation. • Current Population Survey • USD259 data

5. Reasons for Separations Not identifiable from data but include: retirement employee changing occupations competitive employment employee leaving the labor force unemployment sickness or death Net separation rates indicate whether the size of the original age group decreased.

6. All Teachers, 1947-1951 Birth YearsUSD259 Separation Rate Calculations • 2006 2011 2016 • Age 50-54 Age 55-59 Age 60-64 Age 65-69

7. All Teachers, 1947-1951 Birth YearsCPS Separation Rate Calculations • 2006 2011 2016 • Age 50-54 Age 55-59 Age 60-64 Age 65-69

8. All Teachers, 1947-1951 Birth YearsUSD259 rate top graph, CPS rate bottom graph Age 50-54 Age 55-59 Age 60-64 Age 65-69

10. Teacher Sub-Groups • Preschool & kindergarten teachers • Elementary & middle school teachers • Secondary school teachers • Special education teachers (also studied janitors & building cleaners) Each sub-group has individual separation profiles.

11. Teacher Sub-Group Separation Profile

13. Value of Information • Create strategies to maintain employees • Plan recruitment efforts • Forecast need for occupational training programs • Identify needed in-service programs • Succession planning • Knowledge management

14. Specific issues for USD259 • Examine age distribution in teacher sub-groups. • Unequal age distribution

15. Specific issues for USD259 Examine age distribution in teacher sub-groups.(Numbers in parentheses identify CPS category)

17. Comparison of USD259 and CPSSeparation Rates

18. Limitations of Methodology - CPS • The CPS is conducted primarily to obtain current data on the labor force status of individuals, rather than data that measures changes over time. • Individuals may respond differently to the same CPS question about their occupation • Interpreted or coded differently by interviewer or computer processor • Occupations with fewer than 50,000 employees

19. Limitations of Methodology – Local vs CPS Sampling (messy data) • Precision in assigning employees to occupation groups in same manner as CPS • Local dynamics influence separations • Local retirement options • Local labor market competition

20. Supply vs Demand

21. Occupational Replacement: Newly Licensed Teachers From College Kansas State Department of Education Licensed Personnel Report, State Profile 2005-2006 1,734 new teachers from college in 2006 New teacher retention 69.7% with mentor 52.5% without mentor

22. Occupational Replacement: Newly Licensed Teachers From College 1,734 new teachers from college in 2006 New teacher retention 69.7% with mentor 52.5% without mentor 11.2% proportioned to USD259 194 new teachers from college in 2006 135-101.8 new teacher retention after 1 year

23. Occupational Growth: Additional Labor Demand Considerations Kansas Department of Labor 2012 Kansas Occupational Outlook 740 additional elementary school teachers jobs between 2002 and 2012 for the South Central region (approximately 541 for Sedgwick County). KDL did not provide additional projections for other types of teachers

24. Occupational Growth: Additional Labor Demand Considerations USD259 increased total number of teachers 3,054 in 2001 3,499 in 2006 14.57% increase 89 teachers per year average growth

25. Occupational SeparationsUSD259 319 actual net separations 2001-2006 63.8 teachers net separations per year

26. Estimated Supply 194 new teachers from college 135-101.8 new teachers retention after 1 year Demand 89 teachers per year growth 63.8 average annual separations ------------------------------ 152.8 additional annual net demand USD259, 2001-2006(Annual Data)

27. Estimated Supply 194 new teachers from college 135-101.8 new teachers retention after 1 year Estimated Demand 89 teachers per year growth 85.2 average annual separations ------------------------------ 174.2 additional annual net demand USD259, 2007-2011(Annual Data)

28. Registered Nurses Methodology applied to regional occupational dynamics

29. Registered NursesAnnual Projected Net Demand, 2000-2010

30. Registered Nurses Annual Projected Supply 1,227 graduates of Kansas Professional Nursing Programs in 2005. 73% pass rate for the National Council Licensure Examination (NCLEX)

31. Registered NursesAnnual Projected Supply

32. Registered NursesProjected Net Demand and Additional Supply, 2000-2010

33. USD259Estimating Separation RatesandGraying Sedgwick County Full reports are available on line: www.wichita.edu/cedbr Special Reports