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Northwest River Forecast Center

Northwest River Forecast Center. National Weather Service Implementation of Community Hydrologic Prediction System CHPS Acceleration Team ABRFC, CNRFC, NERFC, NWRFC, and OHD Delft |WL Hydraulics, Deltares National HIC Meeting February 2009. 1. Outline. CAT background and history

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Northwest River Forecast Center

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  1. Northwest River Forecast Center National Weather Service Implementation of CommunityHydrologic Prediction SystemCHPS Acceleration Team ABRFC, CNRFC, NERFC, NWRFC, and OHD Delft |WL Hydraulics, DeltaresNational HIC Meeting February 2009 1

  2. Outline • CAT background and history • Describe Baseline Operational Capabilities (BOC) • CAT Timeline • Present Baseline Operational Capabilities (BOC-II) • Follow-on RFCs timeline (CAT-II)

  3. Accolades There are so many of people who made this project happen and have contributed immensely to its current successes. • Gary Carter , Pedro Restrepo for supporting the RFCs in this endeavor on many levels • OHD staff for their program management, budget, software, and technical support • J.Roe, C.Dietz, R.Rieman, J.Gofus, many others • Delft|WL Deltares • The caliber of staff and dedication to maintain the aggressive schedule has been simply outstanding 3

  4. Definitions • CAT CHPS Acceleration Team • BOC Baseline Operational Capability • CAT-II The 9 follow-on RFCs • BOC-II Updated version of the BOC 4

  5. Pilots/Demonstrations BOC Migration 20062007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Parallel Ops Operational Operational Parallel Ops Migration BOC-II Software Development BOC-II Retire NWSRFS CAT & CAT-II Timelines Today CAT RFCs BOC Software Development CAT-II RFCs 5

  6. Implementation Strategy CAT – CHPS Acceleration Team • Develop Implementation Strategy and Plan to address NWSRFS-to-CHPS migration at CATs • The CAT basin demonstrations captured the varying hydrology and hydraulics as the first foray into FEWS • Success relies upon the strategy, planning, and execution on part of all the players • OHD, Deltares, CATs • Well organized approach to strategy and planning • Frequent and direct interfacings/workshops • Basis of CAT activities followed a Baseline Operational Capability, or BOC 6

  7. Implementation Strategy Develop a Baseline Operational Capability • BOC required examination of the end-to-end forecast system • Clearly defined requirements to duplicate operations without NWSRFS • Process served to define/direct software development & model transition activities at OHD and Deltares 7 7

  8. CAT Recommendation BOC had Resource Implications • Re-direct OHD resources toward CHPS & FEWS • Terminate “dead-end” NWSRFS enhancements • Align/re-evaluate HSMB-oriented “Research to Operations” (RTO) projects • Establish a priority work plan at the RFC • Not above forecast operations 8

  9. Baseline Operational Capability BOC - Baseline Operational Capability defined • BOC is the minimum set of software, hardware, and information infrastructure to operationally support the 4 CAT RFCs • Models, Operations, Display utilities • Consistent with operational service delivery as of Jan 1, 2008 • Snapshot of 4 CAT RFC determined functionality and operations that would be included in initial CHPS system • Mechanical change only • No re-calibration of models/basin • Except HEC-RAS 9 9

  10. Baseline Operational Capability BOC – Empower facilities delivered with FEWS • Comprehensive database/repository • Time Series • Point/grid/mean areal • Model states • MODs • Approved/non-approved runs • Archive capable • Backup potential • System synchronization • Built-in GIS facilities • Technology upgrade 10 10

  11. Baseline Operational Capability • Ensemble Capabilities • Calibration • Archive • Training • Strategic and Tactical Planning Following slides will highlight several areas the CAT, OHD, and Deltares addressed based on the BOC roadmap • Data processing • NWSRFS OFS Pre Processors • Observed and forecast forcings • Evaluate Models and Operations • Post processing 11 11

  12. Baseline Operational Capability Hydrologic/Hydraulic Configuration • Workflows will emulate Forecast Group and Segment structure of current NWSRFS implementations • This will help simplify migration 12

  13. Baseline Operational Capability NWSRFS Model/Operations OFS Models and Operations 3-classes of Models or Operations changes related to porting NWSRFS system • Re-written into JAVA • Adapters added to current NWSRFS functionality and ported to FEWS • Employing functions within FEWS 13

  14. Baseline Operational Capability NWSRFS Model/Operations • SNOW-17, Unit-HG, SAC-SMA • Apply adapters for other models and operations • Reservoir Models • Routing Models • Consumptive Use • RES-J, RES-SNGL, BASEFLOW, SARROUTE, CONS_USE, LAG/K, LAY-COEF, TATUM, TIDEREV, MUSKROUT, RES-J, RSNWELEV, CHANLOSS, SSARRESV, STAGEREV, RES-SNGL • Replace with similar functions embedded within CHPS • Time series or data manipulation • CLEAR-TS, CHANGE-T, ADD/SUB, SET-TS, MULT/DIV, NOMSNG, MERG-TS, MEAN-Q, WEIGHT-TS, LOOKUP3, LOOKUP, DELTA-TS, ADJUST-Q, ADJUST-H, ADJUST-T, PLOT-TS, PLOT-TUL Models re-written into Java • Hydrologic/Hydraulic Models • Soil Moisture Models • Snow Models 14

  15. Baseline Operational Capability Migration Tools • Deltares will develop the necessary tools to convert NWSRFS to FEWS • Transform NWSRFS configurations/definitions to FEWS • Transfer parameters/model states to FEWS 15

  16. Baseline Operational Capability Display Concepts • System Forecaster Interactivity • FEWS has been engineered to employ and expand upon D2D display and functional concepts • Increase the analysis time of forecaster • Reduce mechanics (clicking) to information panels • Allow use of expanded screen real estate per user needs • Can use “twin-view” screen expansion • Take advantage of tabs, docking, earlobes, tear-offs techniques • User mechanical state (configuration) memorized and used on re-entry 16

  17. Baseline Operational Capability Introduce and Develop “MODS” in FEWS • Deltares developing MODs interface and capability • FEWS Interactive Forecast GUI meeting (Aug 2008) • Emulate NWSRFS functionality with more sophistication and intuitiveness • Modify states or data to models & time series • Soil Moisture States • Snow States • Simulated Forecasts • Regulation 17

  18. Baseline Operational Capability Data Flow • Existing data flows re-mapped to provide same point, areal, and gridded data currently provided by NWSRFS • Ofs_de/batchpst • Track data sources for MAP comparisons between RFS and CHPS grid-generated data • Data flows will support archive and verification requirements • QC will remain external to FEWS via tools and applications • QC within FEWS propagates to external systems and repositories • Question IHFS database existence at RFCs 18

  19. NWSRFS Pre Processors Baseline Operational Capability Observed and Forecast Forcings • Forcings will remain external to FEWS • Goal is for all input forcings to be in grid form • FEWS will transform input to mean areal • FEWS will also support both point and time series data ingest • Eg., post time series data to FEWS • (NWS) RRS Quality Control within FEWS will propagate to external systems and repositories 19

  20. Baseline Operational Capability NWSRFS OFS Preprocessors • CAT RFCs agreed to retire all OFS Pre-processors and employ routines within FEWS to generate mean areal time series data • CAT/HSEB formed team to address OFS PP • All input forcings will be in grid form • Validate techniques in mean areal computations against current OFS PP data • Adjust for biases • Maintain temporal considerations of 6 & 24 hour time series 20

  21. Baseline Operational Capability Post Processing • FEWS to export XML and SHEF messages • Forecast generation (and transmission) will be by forecast group or single segment • Ability to visually (read-only) monitor forecast process by other users • eg. WFOs? 21

  22. Baseline Operational Capability • ESP - Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Services • FEWS will provide for existing level of ensemble operations, products, and services • Retreat from ESPADP due to reliance on FS5files • Employ XEFS Ensemble Product Generator (EPG) • Initial version this fall 2009 • Completed by fall 2010 • Ens-Pre and Ens-Post are considered part of BOC 22

  23. Baseline Operational Capability • XEFS - Experimental Ensemble Forecast System • Right behind NWSRFS migration • Prototyping at CN, CB, MA, OH, and NERFCs in 2010 • Operational in 2011 at CNRFC 23

  24. Baseline Operational Capability • Calibration System • Commitment to continue supporting current calibration system • Currently limited to existing NWS model/operations • Action from January CAT workshop raised the priority and accelerated support for calibration program linked to CHPS • Not in initial BOC • Targeted for Jan 2010 • Needed to support hydrologic services 24

  25. Baseline Operational Capability Training • Key component to CHPS transition and migration • Combination of contractor/NWS training • Deltares visiting CAT RFCs to provide both system and migration training. • Hydrology training remains responsibility of RFC 25

  26. Baseline Operational Capability System Support/Maintenance • NWS models/operations are passed to Deltares • Available to all other users (share concept) • FEWS software builds delivered by Deltares • FEWS software architecture responsibility of Deltares • OHD/OCWWS HSD will be first line support • Maintenance NWS operations only • Other FEWS bugs reported/fixed by Deltares • 2nd line support direct from Deltares 26

  27. Pilots/Demonstrations BOC Migration 20062007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Parallel Ops Operational Weekly CAT Calls Mar WS Jun WS Sep WS CAT Timeline and Workshops Today CAT RFCs BOC Software Development Dec WS Decision Meeting CHPS Training Jan WS Jun WS Jan WS Mar WS Mar WS CAT/OHD/Deltares Workshops August Design Meeting Jun WS Sep WS Sep WS Dec WS Data Flow Changes OFSde/CHPSpst December 2008 Software Acceptance/Testing 27 • FEWS update • Apr - Models and operation • Jun - Interactive/MODs FEWS minor/major updates 2x/year

  28. CAT Timeline & Activities 2008 • January • CAT-recommend implementation of Delft-FEWS as the software infrastructure for CHPS approved by Gary Carter, OHD • Weekly CAT calls to discuss and monitor activities and progress 28 28

  29. CAT Timeline & Activities 2008 • June 2008 Workshop Objectives (Silver Spring) • First CAT workshop • Software design and development • CHPS Implementation strategy • Highlights • Data Processing (I/O, QC) • Hardware architecture • Migration of model operations and FEWS adapters • Interactive forecasting capability (NWRFC design meeting) • Ensemble, calibration, verification systems • Flash Flood Guidance 29 29

  30. CAT Timeline & Activities 2008 • August 4-6 Design Meeting(NWRFC) • Interactive forecast system • MODs capabilities • Deltares, ABRFC, NERFC, and CNRFC participating • Each CAT sent a forecast representative to hammer out interface and MODS design • Laud Deltares for being open to ideas and suggestions and for providing invaluable input 30 30

  31. CAT Timeline & Activities 2008 • September 2008 Workshop (NERFC) • Highlights • Status of development at OHD and Deltares • PreProcessor requirements • Data processing (Time series, grib, xmrg, netcdf ) • Prepare for CHPS testing and configuration support tools • MODS technical implementation • Interactive forecasting capability • Ensemble, Calibration, verification system • Archive • CHPS hardware and infrastructure • FFG again 31 31

  32. CAT Timeline & Activities 2008 • December 2008 Software Acceptance Testing • Model and TS-Operations comparison between CHPS & NWSRFS • Compare models/operations between RFS & CHPS • SAC-SMA, Snow-17 • Time Series • Testing settled on output time-series • Statistical measures RMSE, max/min error computed • Discovered precision and unit conversion issues • Concluded the TS comparisons must match exactly (within rounding considerations) 32 32

  33. CAT Timeline & Activities 2009 • January 2009 Workshop (Silver Spring) • Highlights • XEFS • Calibration & Verification • Calibration given higher development priority • Archive • Product Generation • Potential use of WaterML for XML services • Planning and strategy to engage with follow-on RFCs • The 9 follow-on RFCs were designated as CAT-II • Decision to start a BOC-II document 33 33

  34. CAT Timeline & Activities 2009 Today • January 2009 • Started Webinar/GoTo for ALL RFC to bring them up to speed on status/progress/activities • February 11 most recent call • Next to occur in March? • February 9-13, 2009 • First migration training held at NWSTC • 3 per RFC participated in training • Intense, comprehensive • February training milestone is first activity to set migration in motion 34 34

  35. CAT Timeline & Activities As of February 2009 CAT continues to remain on schedule 35 35

  36. CAT Timeline & Activities 2009 Yet to be … • March 2009 will open the Deltares USA office • Edwin Welles & Peter Gijsbers • March 30-31 (CNRFC) • CAT Workshop • April 1 (HEC) • Meeting to discuss/resolve development and maintenance of HEC adaptors • April 28-May 1 or May 5-8 HEC-RAS Training • Unsteady HEC-RAS training for NERFC and NWRFC • April 13 • Steady State (basic) training on HEC-RAS for ALL RFCS • HEC in Davis, CA 36 36

  37. CAT Timeline & Activities 2009 • June 14-18 • Software Update • Includes interactive and MODS capability • June 22-26, 2009 (ABRFC) • CAT Workshop • Training • Sept 28-October 2 (NWRFC) • CAT workshop • December 14-18 (Silver Spring) • CAT Workshop 37 37

  38. Operational BOC-II Migration 20072008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Parallel Ops Weekly CAT Calls Mar WS Jun WS Sep WS CAT-II Timeline and Workshops Today 2010 CAT RFCs CAT-II RFCs CAT-II Migration Training Pilots Demonstrations BOC-II Software Development BOC Hardware & Software Install Jan WS Mar WS May/June Deltares Visiting CAT-II RFCs CAT/OHD/Deltares Workshops Data Flow Changes OFSde/CHPSpst December 2009 Additional Software Acceptance/Testing 38 FEWS minor/major updates 2x/year

  39. CAT-II Timeline & Activities • The CAT Team recognizes the CAT-II RFCs will have requirements not covered under the BOC. • BOC-II will be the “minimum set of software, hardware, and information structure to operationally support” the CAT-II RFCs • The BOC-II document is a reflection of the final BOC • Based on operational service delivery as of Jan 1, 2009 39

  40. CAT-II Timeline & Activities • BOC-II Basic Operating Capability for CAT-II • BOC-II will define the additional CAT-II requirements and control the migration process • RFCs will need to inventory their configurations to determine the “additional” operations or models necessary to support CAT-II operations • CAT-II will also review the full end-to-end process and forecast system 40

  41. RFC “Buddy” list The CAT-II sites have been paired with a CAT RFC to help and support their migration project. • ABRFC • SERFC, LMRFC, WGRFC • CNRFC • CBRFC, NCRFC • NERFC • MARFC, OHRFC • NWRFC • MBRFC, APRFC 41

  42. CAT-II Participation 2009 CAT-II participation has started…. • Started monthly briefings for the CAT-II RFCs • Available E-mail and new CAT-II list for questions • Or just call one of the CATs • Summer 2009 Deltares visiting CAT-II RFCs in May/June time period • Introductions • System briefings • Initiate ~weekly CAT-II calls to iron out BOC-II • Target final BOC-II document by May 2009 42 42

  43. CAT-II Timeline & Activities 2010 – CAT II • Jan 2-4 and Jan 11-15 • Migration training for CAT II including buddy RFCs, Deltares • 2 groups • 2010 CHPS Workshops (planned) • March 29-April 2 • June 21-25 • Sept 27 – Oct 1 • Jan 10-14, 2011 • March 28-April 1, 2011 • 2010 Summer – National Workshop • 2011 Summer – National Workshop 43 43

  44. CAT & CAT-II Goals CHPS Goals – CAT and CAT II • Operations are a priority but… • Must achieve CHPS migration in order to retire NWSRFS by 2011 • No resources to support dual systems • OHD unable to support NWSRFS&CHPS • The RFC is in same position • The CAT-II task is to prioritize the CHPS migration at the regional & office level 44 44

  45. 2011 NWSRFS Retired Move forward onto other hydrology and science issues 45 45

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