Climate and Global Change Working Group Reports NOAA Climate Review April 19-21, 2004

1. Climate and Global Change Working Group ReportsNOAA Climate ReviewApril 19-21, 2004 NOAA Science Advisory Board July 14, 2004

2. General Comments • Follow-up to previous two meetings • Joint meeting with the Climate Monitoring Working Group in Duck Key, FL • Chet Koblinsky, Director, NOAA Climate Program, organized NOAA response to WG advice and provided direction

3. Agenda - CGCWG/CMWG • CCSP Update • NOAA Climate Program Structure (5 components) • CCSP Deliverables • NOAA role in CCSP • NOAA Program Components • Climate Observations and Analysis • Climate Forcing • Climate Predictions and Projections • Climate and Ecosystems • Regional Decision Support

4. Agenda - Split Sessions with CMWG • Data Stewardship and CLASS (Comprehensive Large-Array Stewardship System) • NOAA Baseline Assessment for Climate Observations and Analysis • Adaptation of Model Data for Use in Assessments

5. General Comments • NOAA needs to provide input mechanisms for external community executors/stakeholders • Little evidence of cross-agency coordination • Budgetary constraints lead to tensions between ongoing and new activities, e.g. ocean observing versus regional assessments (RISAs) • NOAA’s role in ecosystem observations vis a vis other thrusts is not very well articulated, as yet

6. General Comments - continued • Decision support activities remain ill-defined • New PPBES mechanism/cycle impacts are significant and leading to programmatic uncertainty • Need to develop linkages between observing systems, analysis, and modeling

7. Programmatic Challenges • Paleo-climate program restructuring will have a major impact on NOAA collaborations with academe as well as amount of “abrupt climate change” research on a national level • Internal redirection of resources into observations from OGP process studies will have a negative impact on understanding needed for the IPCC process • Matrix management approach to integrated programs is a new concept for NOAA and remains to be validated

8. Programmatic Challenges - cont’d • Reanalysis strategy is remarkably inward directed and requires strong linkages with the observing system • Modeling strategy needs stronger input from operational components in NOAA • NOAA climate test bed strategy seems to be based on a “go it alone” philosophy - very NCEP “centric” • Integrated Observing Systems Strategy must include observations AND subsequent analyses components

9. Programmatic Challenges - cont’d • No mechanisms for optimizing across observing system components • CLASS requires stronger corporate as well as outside community participation • CLASS has no mechanisms for ongoing evolution of capabilities and services • Where is the stakeholders’ input in the program plan? • Should it be/is it connected to the “attribution” dimension of the program? • Lack of integration and balance between program elements

10. Carbon Cycle Observing System • North American Array design - better understood, but still not there • Tall towers, intensive sites, surface sites, aircraft tradeoffs • Time/space scales (1000 km/variable in time) • 30 sites in 2007 • A conundrum: east coast/west coast CO2 levels • 2007 Goal: reduce N.Am. Carbon sink uncertainty by 50% • Must improve Carbon inverse models for source-sink determinations • Must/should explore partnering opportunities with academia for observing, analysis and model interpretation

11. Upper Atmosphere Observing System • Present network is not adequate to document and understand changes in atmospheric structure • Complementary to remote sensing • Maintain continuity wit historical archive • Several proposals being considered • For example, augment existing network, dropsondes from balloons/UAV’s, global reference network, etc. • Overlap during transitions will be critical • Need for network design studies • NOAA must show leadership to determine needs, work with international partners, and commit to long-term support • Important issue for weather and climate, but independent solutions still being proposed with little or no coordination • Summer 2004 workshop to define requirements, identify and compare options • Ensure that progress continues to be made on this issue

12. Some final thoughts • Meeting happened at the conclusion of the first cycle of the PPBES • Internal vs. external performer roles require balancing • External community feels shut out of the NOAA planning process • Working Group structures need attention • Combine into a single Working Group • Broaden input to include private industry • GEO becoming a more critical force in driving observing system design

13. Some final thoughts - continued • Carbon Program requires sustained attention • NOAA must establish a clear and open process whereby the stakeholders in the set of core products will have input into their specifications and can comment on their utility • No clearly articulated role for private enterprise in the information system

14. Requested SAB Actions • Rework the Working Group charge to merge the two (CM and CGC) into a revised CGC WG, encompassing research, observational and information system elements • Design the PPBES process to incorporate academic and JI input in a timely manner • Ongoing involvement of the external community into the CLASS program • Carbon observing system design review • Upper Air observing system implementation review • Definition of NOAA Decision Support efforts