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Future of Rabies Control in Europe: Models and Vaccine Strategies

This article explores the future of rabies control in Europe and how models can help inform vaccine strategies. Topics discussed include cost-effective vaccine strategies, the spread of raccoon dog rabies, vaccinating to protect borders, optimum vaccine strategies in endemic and rabies-free areas, and the effectiveness of emergency vaccine strategies. The importance of examining economics and testing new strategies in the field is also highlighted. Current models are presented as a way to address these questions.

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Future of Rabies Control in Europe: Models and Vaccine Strategies

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  1. What is the future of rabies control in Europe?How models can help GC Smith, HH Thulke, AR Fooks, M Artois, DW Macdonald, D Eisinger, T Selhorst

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  3. Reduced cost vaccine strategy ? • Baits are expensive • EU fund greater proportion or will less baits work? • Current bait density = 70% immunity • Recent work suggests 60% = 1/3 reduction in baits • This needs to be tested in the field.

  4. Raccoon dog rabies ? • Raccoon dogs spreading west • Raccoon dog density increasing • Raccoon dogs make rabies epizootic more intense (equivalent to increasing fox density) • If no hibernation (climate change): rabies harder to control • Is a new vaccine strategy required? • Examine cost effectiveness.

  5. Vaccinate to protect border ? • Push vaccination across all of Asia (wildlife rabies) • Stop at some border • Not consider politics • Do need to examine economics !

  6. Optimum vaccine strategy ? Rabies endemic Rabies free

  7. Optimum vaccine strategy ? Rabies endemic Rabies free

  8. Optimum vaccine strategy ? Rabies endemic Rabies free

  9. Best emergency vaccine strategy ? • EU recommendation • 25-50km radius of vaccination • Increased fox density &Increased raccoon dog density • Emergency strategy effectively untried • Theoretical density limit where vaccine works.

  10. Effect of single baiting campaign -2

  11. Best emergency vaccine strategy ? • EU recommendation • 25-50km radius of vaccination • Increased fox density &Increased raccoon dog density • Emergency strategy effectively untried • Theoretical density limit where vaccine works • What is the limit? Do we exceed it anywhere?

  12. Conclusion • Is a new vaccine strategy required? • Examine economics of rabies control • Test any new strategy in the field • Is current emergency strategy OK? • What is the density limit for vaccination ? • Current models can answer these questions

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