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Syria and Chemical Weapons: Building a World Free of WMD

Syria and Chemical Weapons: Building a World Free of WMD. Paul F. Walker, Ph.D. Director, Security & Sustainability Green Cross International Washington DC, USA George Mason University Fairfax, Virginia October 16, 2013. Alleged CW Use in Syria. July 23, 2012 – Syria confirms CW

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Syria and Chemical Weapons: Building a World Free of WMD

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  1. Syria and Chemical Weapons: Building a World Free of WMD Paul F. Walker, Ph.D. Director, Security & Sustainability Green Cross International Washington DC, USA George Mason University Fairfax, Virginia October 16, 2013

  2. Alleged CW Use in Syria • July 23, 2012 – Syria confirms CW • December 23 – Homs attack, 7 killed • March 19, 2013 – Aleppo & Damascus • March 24 – Adra • April 13 – Aleppo • April 29 – Saraqeb

  3. Syria’s CWC Accession • August 21, 2013 – Large scale CW attack in Ghouta region. 1,400+ killed, including 400 children. • September 14 – Syria accedes to CWC • October 14 – CWC enters into force for Syria as 190th State Party

  4. World War I • Over 1 million injured by gas attacks, and some 90,000 killed

  5. Chemical Weapons Threats • Iran-Iraq War • Iraq attack on Halabja in 1988 • 1991 Gulf War • 1995 Tokyo subway attack • Ongoing terrorist threats of WMD • Syria 2012-2013

  6. 8 Declared CW Stockpiles • Russia 40,000 metric tons • USA 28,600 metric tons • India 1,000+ metric tons (est) • South Korea 1,000+ metric tons (est) • Libya 26+ metric tons • Albania 16 metric tons • Iraq na • Syria 1,000 metric tons (est) • TOTAL 72,500 +/- metric tons

  7. Declared U.S. CW Stockpile: 31,495 US tons(9 stockpile sites in 8 states and Johnston Atoll) Umatilla Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Hermiston, Oregon (12%) Newport Chemical Depot Newport, Indiana (4%) Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Tooele, Utah (44%) Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Tooele, Utah (44%) Aberdeen Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Edgewood, Maryland (5%) Newport Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Newport, Indiana (4%) Pueblo Chemical Depot Pueblo, Colorado (8%) Pueblo Chemical Depot Pueblo, Colorado (8%) Blue Grass Army Depot Richmond, Kentucky (2%) Pine Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Pine Bluff, Arkansas (12%) Pine Bluff Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Pine Bluff, Arkansas (12%) Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Anniston, Alabama (7%) Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal System South Pacific (6%)

  8. Declared R.F. CW Stockpile: 40,000 tons(7 stockpiles in 5 Oblasts and the Udmurt Republic)

  9. Shchuch’ye Chemical Weapons

  10. Shchuch’ye Stockpile

  11. Chemical Weapons Convention • Entered into force in 1997 • 190 States Parties • CW stockpiles destroyed by 2012 • Inspection of commercial industry • Five-year RevCons 2003, 2008, & 2013

  12. CW Destruction in US • 1990 – present • 25,650 MT destroyed (90%) • 7 stockpiles closed • $25 billion+ spent to date • 10 more years to go • 2 facilities under construction

  13. CW Destruction in Russia • 2002 – present • 30,400 MT destroyed (76%) • 2 stockpiles neutralized • $7+ billion spent to date • 3-6+ years to go

  14. Other CWD Progress • Albania – 16 MT destroyed (100%) 2007 • South Korea – 1,000+ MT destroyed (100%) 2008 • India – 1,000+ MT destroyed (100%) 2009 • Libya – 23 +/- MT destroyed (88%) (excl. Sched. 2) • Iraq – Declared 2009 • Syria – Declared 2013

  15. Russian CW Demil (est. Sept 2013) • Gorny neutralized Dec02-Dec05 – 1,143 MT • Kambarka neutralized Dec05-Apr09 – 6,349 MT • Maradikovsky neutralized 6,200 MT (90%) since Sept 06 (6,890 MT total) • Leonidovka neutralized 6,200 MT (90%) since 2008 (6,885 MT total) • Shchuch’ye neutralized 4,350 MT (80%) since March 2009 (5,456 MT total) • Pochep neutralized 4,500 MT (60%) since November 2010 (7,498 MT) • Kizner to open late 2013 (5,745 MT)

  16. US CW Demil (Feb 2012) • Johnston Atoll – 1990-2000, 100% destroyed • Tooele – 1996-2012, 100% destroyed • Anniston – 2003-2011, 100% destroyed • Aberdeen – 2003-2005, 100% destroyed • Umatilla – 2004-2011, 100% destroyed • Pine Bluff – 2005-2011, 100% destroyed • Newport – 2005-2008, 100% neutralized • Pueblo – 2014-2017, 0% (2,520 tons) • Blue Grass – 2018-2021, 0% (523 tons)

  17. Challenge #1 – Cost • US cost first estimated at $2B • Now approaching $40B • RF cost first estimated at $3-4B • Now estimated at $10B+ • Not including non-stockpile & sea-dumped

  18. Challenge #2 – Technology • High temperature incineration or low temperature neutralization • Management of effluent toxic wastes • Impacts on public health & environment

  19. Challenge #3 – Emergency Preparedness • Most communities feel ill-prepared • Gas masks, plastic & duct tape distributed for “shelter in place” • Early warning radios and sirens lacking • Transportation for evacuation

  20. Challenge #4 – Community Investment and Involvement

  21. Shchuch’ye, Kurgan Oblast

  22. Challenge #5 – Transparency

  23. Green Cross Outreach Office • Proactive outreach to local & regional constituencies • Reactive response to all inquiries • Facilitation of stakeholder involvement • Empowerment of local communities

  24. Community Outreach

  25. Challenge #6 – CWC Deadlines • CWC stockpile destruction deadlines: • April 2000 – 1% of stockpiles (3 yrs after EIF) • April 2002 – 20% of stockpiles (5 yrs) • April 2004 – 45% of stockpiles (7 yrs) • April 2007 – 100% of stockpiles (10 yrs) • April 2012 – 5-year extension (15 yrs) • No possessor State Party has met all deadlines

  26. CWC Deadlines (cont.) • United States • Met 1% (2000) and 20% (2002) deadlines • Met 3-yr extended 45% deadline (2007) • Received 5-yr extension for 100% deadline to 2012 • Russian Federation • Met 3-yr extended 1% and 5-yr extended 20% deadlines • Received 5+-yr extension for 45% deadline to December 2009 • Received 5-yr extension for 100% deadline to 2012

  27. CWC Deadlines (cont.) • Albania – Did not request 100% extended deadline and missed April 2007 by 2 months • India – Met 100% deadline extension to April 2009 (2 yr extension) • South Korea – Met 100% deadline extension to December 2008 (20-mo ext) • Libya – Received 100% deadline extensions to Dec. 2010, Dec. 2011, Apr. 2012, and Dec. 2016

  28. Challenge #7 – Congressional Deadline • Congress has mandated December 2017 as final deadline for completing CWD • Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO): “It is no secret that DOD is going to miss the 2012 treaty deadline for weapons destruction at Pueblo. That's what happens when you drag your feet and fail to put adequate resources behind a program… This is absurd, especially with DOD's own admission that with higher funding levels they could complete destruction at Pueblo a full five years earlier than that.” (25 Feb 08)

  29. What’s to be Done? • Emphasis must be placed on the critical importance of State Parties to fully fund and implement their ongoing chemical weapons destruction programs – • US – $400-500M+/yr for construction • US Cooperative Threat Reduction – $50M+/yr for CWD • RF – $1B+/yr for CW destruction • G-8 Global Partnership – $100M+/yr

  30. What’s to be Done? • Don’t underestimate public concerns and political power – be transparent and involve stakeholders – preclude legal suits • Recognize inherent tension between cost, schedule, transparency, & safety – protection of public health & environment • Improve US-RF relations and move beyond recent G-8 Global Partnership differences

  31. What’s to be Done? • Promote full CWC universality • Six countries • Angola • Egypt • Israel • Myanmar (Burma) • North Korea • South Sudan

  32. The Challenge of Syria • OPCW to inspect and inventory Syrian declaration • All weapons, agents, production & lab facilities destroyed • Full security & safety guaranteed for inspectors & workers

  33. The Challenge of Syria • What does Syria’s CW stockpile consist of? • What destruction technologies are best? • Can the chemicals, agents, and weapons be moved? • How much will this all cost?

  34. Buried Chemical Weapons

  35. Spring Valley, Washington DC

  36. Sea-Dumped Chemical Weapons

  37. UN Resolution on SDCW Notes the importance of raising public awareness of the environmental effects… Invites Member States…to cooperate and voluntarily share relevant information… Invites the Secretary-General to seek the views of Member States and relevant regional and international organizations at 68th UN General Assembly in 2013…

  38. WMDFZ in the Middle East • Syria’s CWC accession provides incentive for Israel & Egypt to join • Also encourages all to join BWC • And begin to address nuclear weapons in the Mideast – Israel & Iran

  39. Green Cross International 1100 15th Street, NW Suite 1100 Washington, DC 20005, USA +1-202-222-0700 tel www.gcint.org www.globalgreen.org pwalker@globalgreen.org

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