Holistic Approach to Tampa Bay's Future Water Needs

1. Planning Tampa Bay’s Future Water Needs: A Holistic ApproachTirusew Asefa, Ph.D., P.E., D.WREPlanning & Decision Support Manager, Tampa Bay WaterCourtesy Professor, USF Sustainability Speaker Series, Patel Collage of Global Sustainability, USF April 2, 2019

2. Tampa Bay Water’s Member Governments New Port Richey Tampa St. Petersburg

3. Tampa Bay Water’s Supply System • Integrated drought-resistant supply system • 13 wellfields • 8 groundwater treatment facilities • Surface Water Treatment Plant • Desalination Treatment Plant • 9 pump stations • 270 miles of transmission mains

4. Planning for Future Water Needs: Overview Master Water Plan Update

5. Long-term Demand Forecast

6. “Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining it why it didn’t” -Anonymous

7. Determining Future Needs Demand Forecasting Model Input Data Socio-economic Unit Water Use RetailDemand Unbilled &Wholesale Total Demand Weather Single-family Multi-family Non-residential Member billing data = + Property appraisers data Population projections Employment

8. Regional Demand Projections: Deterministic Regional delivery including City of Tampa self supply Tampa Bay Water delivery

11. Closer Look at Historical Rates Since 1998, Unitary Rate has grown in percentage terms more than any member UR growth conc. in 1998-2004

12. 2040 Demand Forecast: Stochastic

13. Demand Management Implementation

14. Demand Management Approach • Need to understand both at active and passive efficiency • 2013 Plan started with 20 programs • 10 programs selected • 2018 Plan updates • 11 program elements • Estimation of saving • Cost benefit ratio

16. 2018-Demand Management Plan Updated

17. Tampa Bay Water SWFWMD Block Grant Block Grant +Matching Funds Accepted management and operational structure- January 2019 Tampa Bay Water project oversight Member Government Management Committee Program Administrator (Rebates & Marketing) Tampa Bay Water project oversight- Member Government Management Committee oversees program Tampa St. Petersburg New Port Richey Hillsborough Pinellas Pasco

18. Residual Risk Management(Water Shortage Mitigation Plan)

19. Innovative Residual Risk Management‡ 1‡ Wang, H., Asefa, T., Bracciano, B., Adams, A., and Wanakule, N. Proactive water shortage mitigation integrating system optimization and input uncertainty, Journal of Hydrology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.01.071, 2019

20. Water Shortage Triggers and Staged

21. Systems Modeling: Risk & Reliability, New Supply Sources

22. Planning for Multiple Futures: A Level of Service Approach‡ Deterministic Stochastic one random variable Stochastic two random variables Demand Capacity Demand Capacity Analyze shortages to determine future supply need Demand Capacity ‡ Asefa, T., A. Adams, and N. Wanakule, 2015, A level of service concept for planning future water supply projects under probabilistic demand and supply framework, Journal of American Water Resources Association, 51(5) pp: 1272-285, DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12309

23. Regional Performance Evaluation Model

24. Each Configuration Increases Regional Supply by 20 Million Gallons Per Day Each Configuration Provided 20 MGD Additional Water Supply Also addresses hydraulic limitations in South-Hillsborough County

25. Public Input

26. Community Outreach • Efforts: • 2015 public opinion survey • Focus groups • Water quality campaign • Ad hoc committee • Speakers bureau • “Have a Voice” campaign • Microsite – futurewater.org • Online survey • Telephone town hall meetings • 2018 public opinion survey

27. Public Information • Develop and implement project-specific public information

28. Putting it all together

29. Decision-making Criteria Based on the 3 Board-Approved Master Water Plan Goals

30. Overall Criteria Weightings

31. Evaluation Evolution South County Supply Options a) 7.5 mgd groundwater via SHARP credit b) South County Pipeline + 9 Shortlisted Configurations

32. Projects Recommended for Additional Study Three New Water Supply Projects South County Projects New Groundwater Treatment Plant via Net Benefit from SHARP Program Pipeline from Regional SWTP to South Hillsborough County

33. Surface Water Expansion withExisting Sources Notes: 1. Pipeline costs assumes 50% allocated to Hillsborough County

34. Tampa Bay Seawater Desalination Plant Expansion

35. New Groundwater Treatment Plant via Net Benefit from SHARP Notes: 1. Pipeline costs assumes 50% allocated to Hillsborough County 2. Does not includes aquifer recharge credit costs

36. Next Steps: 2019 – 2023 Cycle • Detailed feasibility of the three top projects • Update probabilistic demand forecast • Understand risk and reliability of expanding surface water system at current or reservoir location • Demand management implementations • Work with member government and SWFWMD • Continue collaborating with District to incorporate the Water Shortage Mitigation Plan into Consolidated Water Use Permit

37. Next Steps: 2019 – 2023 Cycle (cont.) • Continue source water and risk assessment and protection activities for current and future supplies to ensure water quality • Source water monitoring and assessment • Evaluation of treatment barriers and land use activities • Stakeholder outreach and education • Climate resiliency and adaptation planning • (May 29 and 30 workshop at Tampa Bay Water, Decision making under deep uncertainty) (www. floridaWCA.org, www.wucaonline.org) • Develop Decision Framework for Infrastructure Sequencing (DFIS) USF CEE Spring Seminar Topic (April 19, 2019)

38. Contributors Dr. NisaiWanakule Lead Engineer Dr. Jeff Geurink Principal Engineer Dr. Hui Wang Wat. Res. Sys. Engineer Ms. Ivana Kajtezovic Planning Manager Mr. Dave Bracciano Demand Management Coordinator Dr. Solomon Erkyihun Demand forecaster/Planner