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Ethanol: Not All It Seems To Be

Ethanol: Not All It Seems To Be. Team 128 Tom Jackson Kelly Roache Afanasiy Yermakov Jason Zukus. Problem Overview. The issue of energy independence Rising demand for gasoline Price instability Fossil fuel reserve depletion Ethanol as an alternative fuel Influence on the price of corn

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Ethanol: Not All It Seems To Be

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  1. Ethanol:Not All It Seems To Be Team 128 Tom Jackson Kelly Roache Afanasiy Yermakov Jason Zukus

  2. Problem Overview The issue of energy independence Rising demand for gasoline Price instability Fossil fuel reserve depletion Ethanol as an alternative fuel Influence on the price of corn Feasibility

  3. 10% Gasoline Replacement Assumptions Alternative energy usage remains minimal Linear model is appropriate for the short-term 144 billion gallons of gasoline

  4. 10% Gasoline Replacement • Ethanol to gasoline efficiency • Ethanol production requires gasoline • Equation: • Convergence • 21.6 billion gallons of ethanol • Testing the model

  5. GHGsAssumptions • Nearly all of gasoline required for ethanol production used in farming, harvesting stages • CO2 only accounts for a portion of greenhouse gases, and to accurately assess environmental impact, need emissions as a whole

  6. GHGs Methodology • Initial GHG contribution for 2008 gasoline consumption • Harvesting, refinement, burning • Energy to gallon • Final GHG contribution with 10% ethanol replacement • Land use change, growing, refining, burning

  7. GHGs Calculations ∆GHG = GHGf – GHGi GHGf = (galgas08 – galethanol08)*GHG/galgas08 +galethanol08*GHG/galethanol GHGi=(galgas08*GHG/galgas08) ∆GHG = 74,760,000,000 kg

  8. Cost Efficiency of Ethanol Price to produce gas vs. price to produce Ethanol based on units of energy cost of gasoline production depends on price of oil

  9. Cost Efficiency of EthanolCalculations 1.941*10-4/MJ *(barrel price) + $0.0014559/MJ H + P + NR = $/(MJ ETOH) Harvest Cost/MJ + Production Cost/MJ + Cost of New Refineries/MJ = Cost of a MJ of ethanol $.04684/MJ Cost of MJ of ethanol = Cost of MJ of gasoline $0.04684/MJ = 1.941*10-4/MJ *(barrel price) + $0.0014559/MJ Barrel price = $233.82

  10. Impact on Developing NationsAssumptions • Price changes best modeled by corn • Other grains could interfere with model • All ethanol considered is corn-derived • Tariffs and other international trade regulations play a minor role

  11. Impact on Developing NationsSummary of Model • Initial attempt • Model of supply versus demand • No discernible relationship found • Ethanol a recent addition to corn consumption • Consumption of ethanol small

  12. Impact on Developing NationsSummary of Model • Historical parallel • Corn exports would quickly drop to almost nothing • Another commodity shortage: the Oil Crises of 1973 • Commodity availability dropped to almost nothing • Acts as a good indicator of price trend

  13. Impact on Developing NationsCalculations • Best fit plot for oil prices was used C(t)= ($10.72)1.1681t • R-value: .928 R-squared: .861

  14. Impact on Developing NationsCalculations • Replacing the initial value of oil ($10.72) with corn ($5.11) the model is: C(t)= ($5.11)1.1681t • Price doubles in 5 years

  15. Impact on Developing NationsTesting the Model • Collect data on corn supply versus demand and compare it to model • Look at other historical shortages and compare them to the oil shortage

  16. Ethanol and Other Energy Alternatives Is ethanol the best way for the US to achieve national energy independence? Possibilities:

  17. Usability of Nuclear -More cost effective than ethanol -Can power up electrical cars, or hydrogen fuel cells. -Better land use than ethanol

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