PPA 691 – Policy Analysis

1. PPA 691 – Policy Analysis The Policy Delphi

2. The Delphi Technique • A judgmental forecasting procedure for obtaining, exchanging, and developing informed opinion about future events. • The technique was designed to avoid several sources of distorted communication found in groups. • Domination of the group by one or several people; • Pressures to conform to peer group opinion; • Personality differences and interpersonal conflict; and • The difficulty of publicly opposing persons in positions of authority.

3. The Delphi Technique • Seven basic principles. • Selective anonymity. • Iteration (multiple rounds). • Controlled feedback (communication of aggregated judgments). • Informed multiple advocacy (criteria of interest and knowledgeableness). • Polarized statistical response (accentuation of disagreement and conflict). • Structured conflict (exploration of alternatives and consequences through disagreement). • Computer conferencing (e-mail and electronic surveys).

4. The Delphi Technique • Steps. • Issue specification. • Selection of advocates. • Questionnaire design. • Analysis of first-round results. • Development of subsequent questionnaires. • Organization of group meetings. • Preparation of final report.

5. Issue Specification • Identify what specific issues should be addressed by informed advocates. • Issues. • Goals. • Options. • Forecasts. • What proportion generated by group, what proportion by analyst?

6. Selection of Advocates • Identify stakeholders with conflicting problem conceptualizations. • Use of snowball sampling. • Sample size from 10 to 30, but could be hundreds.

7. Questionnaire Design • Questionnaires depend on results of each round. • First-round questionnaires can be open-ended or structured. • Structured questionnaires usually contain statements covering all four main types of statements: issues, goals, options, forecasts. • Different types of scales: importance, desirability, feasibility, reliability.

8. Analysis of First-round Results • Use measures of both central tendency and dispersion to identify areas of conflict and consensus. • Subsequent questionnaires should include important and highly disputed statements.

9. Development of Subsequent Questionnaires • The results of prior rounds are used as the basis for subsequent ones. • Advocates should offer reasons, assumptions, and justifications for positions on statements with high conflict. • Advocates may also reevaluate their positions based on summary material.

10. Organization of Group Meetings • If all information and opinions have been obtained, advocates should be brought together for a face-to-face discussion of the reasons, assumptions, and arguments that underlie their various positions. • This face-to-face meeting, drawing upon the anonymous debate should create an atmosphere of informed confidence.

11. Preparation of Final Report • No guarantee of consensus. • But much reason to hope that creative ideas about issues, goals, options, and consequence will be an important product. • Final report should review issues and options (highlighting assumptions, conflicting arguments, and justifications). • Passed on to policy makers.