Fracking good or fracking bad ? Is unconventional gas good for the planet and good for the economy? David P. Knight FEA

1. Fracking good or fracking bad ?Isunconventional gas good for the planet and good for the economy? David P. KnightFEASTA and WinACC Unconventional gas = shale gas + coalbed gas +tight gas +underground coal gasification

2. What is Shale gas fracking?

3. What is Coalbed methane? http://www.energyjustice.net/naturalgas/cbm

4. What is tight gas http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/05/pakistans-vast-shale-gas-deposits.html

5. What is underground coal gasification? http://www.greencarcongress.com/2005/08/underground_coa.html

6. Unconventional gas unable to reverse decline in total gas production beyond 2025 Conventional Gas starts to Peak/ plateau about 2020

7. 250 k Shell's analysis doesn’t consider full cycle CO2, methane and sulfur dioxide or the fact that we must leave the 95% of the estimated fossil fuel reserves in the ground!

9. Central estimates of warming produced by different global fossil fuel resources Omits effects of methane and SO2 Total potentially feasible for economic extraction in Trillion tonnes of carbon 12.5 9.9 1.91 0.22 0.35 Additional warming to stay within 2°C (Already had 0.8°C ) 0.23 After Swart, N.C.& Weaver, AJ.2012 Nature Clim. Chang.

10. Methane leakage from conventional and unconventional gas production http://frack-off.org.uk/gas-wells-leaking/

11. How do GHG emissions compare for shale gas , conventional gas, and coal electricity production? .Slightly modified from Howarth RW , Santoro , R and Ingraffea, A. Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations, Climatic Change 2011 GHG emissions in g C CO2 e per MJ electricity

12. “…best guess of 4% [ for fugitive methane emissions ] is slightly higher than [Howarth’s] estimate of 2.2–3.8% for shale gas drilling and production.” Tollefson, J. 2012 .Nature , 482, 139-140

13. Two further blows against Shell’s “Cleaner gas” Climatic Change 2011 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0217-3 PNAS 2012 www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1202407109

14. Summary so far“Is unconventional gas good for the planet?” No! • All unmitigated fossil fuel burning must cease by 2050. Pursuing gas would delay investment in renewables. • The evidence presented here suggests that a switch to gas for transport and electricity generation is worse for warming

15. Is unconventional gas good for the global economy ? Main source : Arthur Berman . Source Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Presentation at ASPO USA 2010 World Oil Conference

16. Proven reserves much less than estimated technically recoverable Top 15. Data April 2011 http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/index.cfm#7 Graphic http://gulzar05.blogspot.co.uk/2011/04/global-shale-gas-reserves.html

17. http://www.aspousa.org/fall2006/presentations/pdf/Hughes_D_NatGas_Boston_2006.pdfhttp://www.aspousa.org/fall2006/presentations/pdf/Hughes_D_NatGas_Boston_2006.pdf

18. Source Arthur Berman (2010) “Gas—Abundance or Mirage?” ASPO USA 2010 World Oil Conference

19. Production rate in selected typical wells in different shale gas fields. No evidence for industry claim that production can be maintained for 10 years Chesapeake Energy, “2010 Institutional Investor and Analyst Meeting,” (Oklahoma City, OK 2010), http://phx.corporateir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NjYwMTd8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1, pg. 54.

20. Average of major operators’ cumulative production will not reach advertised estimated ultimate recoverable gas soon enough add value.

21. Shale plays have contracted to a core area. Example- Haynesville Shale Louisiana •The emerging core area shrunk to ~110,000 acres or about 5 Townships. •Approximately 10% of the play area in defined by limits of drilling (1.5 million acres or 65 Townships). •2 years ago, this was promoted as the 4th largest gas field in the world, and the largest in North America.

22. Average gas production per well has declined steeply despite a dramatic increase in the number of US wells producing gas. Based on data from U.S. Energy Information Administration . Source: http://www.postcarbon.org/reports/PCI-report-nat-gas-future.pdf

23. EROI for discovering Oil and Gas in the US has fallen from >1,200 to <5 ! Guilford, MG, Hall ,CAS, O’ Connor, P., 3 Cleveland, CE. 20011 “A New Long Term Assessment of Energy Return on Investment (EROI) for U.S. Oil and Gas Discovery and Production” Sustainability, 3, 1866-1887

24. Global EROI for producing oil and gas Ajay K. Gupta * and Charles A.S. Hall 2011 A Review of the Past and Current State of EROI Data Sustainability, 3, 1796-1809www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

25. •Operator claims of profitability at <$8M/Mcf gas prices exclude many costs. Currently Henry hub price about $2M •Huge operating costs related to need for thousands of expensive wells etc. Data from annual reports http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7075

27. Berman’s conclusion “Shale gas plays in the United States are commercial failures and shareholders in public exploration and production (E&P) companies are the losers.” http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7075

29. What can be done about this?