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New Jersey ENERGY STAR Homes Impact Study – Design, Progress, Schedule

New Jersey ENERGY STAR Homes Impact Study – Design, Progress, Schedule. 2008 ACI Home Performance Conference David Carroll, APPRISE 4/11/2008. Presentation Outline. Disclaimer Study Goals Program Design Context Measurement Approach Measurement Issues Study Design Study Progress/Schedule

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New Jersey ENERGY STAR Homes Impact Study – Design, Progress, Schedule

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  1. New Jersey ENERGY STAR HomesImpact Study – Design, Progress, Schedule 2008 ACI Home Performance Conference David Carroll, APPRISE 4/11/2008

  2. Presentation Outline • Disclaimer • Study Goals • Program Design Context • Measurement Approach • Measurement Issues • Study Design • Study Progress/Schedule • Summary 2

  3. Disclaimer & Promise • Do not sit here for 30 minutes to get the study results. They won’t be presented today. • But … at the end of the session I will collect business cards from those still here and will send the published report when it is made public. 3

  4. Study Goals • Measure Gross Impacts • Assess Variations by Market Segment • Assess Variations by Measure Package • Measure Freeridership • Measure Spillover • Propose Revisions to Deemed Savings Protocols 4

  5. Program Design Context • NJ New Homes Market – Dominated by development home (25 – 250 homes) • Smart Growth – State designates growth areas and has eliminated program incentives for areas not designated for growth • Residential HVAC Program – Allows builders to get incentives for HVAC upgrades 5

  6. Program Design Context • Builder Types • ENERGY STAR / All Homes / Certified • ENERGY STAR / All Homes / Not Certified • ENERGY STAR / Some Homes • Not ENERGY STAR / Residential HVAC • Nonparticipant 6

  7. Measurement Approach • Projected to Actual • Compare REMRate projections to billing data • Participants to Nonparticipants • Compare billing data for participants to billing data for nonparticipants • Segment Analysis • Compare usage data for matching homes (type, size, price, demographics) 7

  8. Measurement Issues • Projected / Actual • Homeowners are not participants • Utilities are not study sponsors • Billing data release requires signature • Participant / Nonparticipant • Levels of participation • Spillover to nonparticipating projects • Segment Level Analysis • Information on nonparticipating homes 8

  9. Study Design • Data Collection / Participants • Sample Frame: Program Databases • Sample: Two-Stage Sample: Projects/Homes • Mail Survey: Housing Unit Data, Household Data, Energy Behaviors, Authorization Form • Utility Data Retrieval • REMRate Data Retrieval 9

  10. Study Design • Data Collection / NonParticipants • Sample Frame: Hanley-Wood Database • Sample Selection: • Identify ENERGY STAR projects • Match nonparticipating projects (Purposive Sample) • Balance participating/nonparticipating builders • Identify project addresses • Assess Residential HVAC participation • Mail Survey / Utility Data Retrieval 10

  11. Study Design • Free Riders • Rating of Initial Submission • Some Potential / Limited Success • Spillover • Analysis • Certified ENERGY STAR • Noncertified by ENERGY STAR builders • Nonparticipating Builders • Note: Partially dependent on Free Rider analysis 11

  12. Study Progress • Complete • ENERGY STAR Mail Survey • ENERGY STAR Utility Data • REMRate Data • In Process • ENERGY STAR Analysis • Nonparticipating Mail Survey 12

  13. Study Progress • Scheduled • Nonparticipating Utility Data • Comparison Analysis • Target Dates • Data Collection Complete – 5/1 • ENERGY STAR Analysis – 5/15 • Comparison Analysis – 6/1 • Draft Report – 6/15 13

  14. Summary • Limited Information – There have been few ENERGY STAR Homes Impact Studies / Available studies have ambiguous results. • Importance of Context – An ENERGY STAR homes impact study has to be designed in the context of program implementation and available resources for development of comparisons 14

  15. Summary • Study Accomplishments – We have demonstrated that one can implement this study design. • Open Question – We have yet to demonstrate that all of these carefully designed procedures will yield the information that we seek. 15

  16. David Carroll APPRISE 609-252-8010 david-carroll@appriseinc.org 16

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