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World Innovation Forum YOU ONLY FIND OIL IF YOU DRILL WELLS Tom Peters/New York/0524.2006

World Innovation Forum* (*Modesty is everything) EVERYTHING YOU THOUGHT YOU KNEW ABOUT INNOVATION IS WRONG* (*Except, of course, what the other presenters have said/will say) Tom Peters/New York/0524.2006. World Innovation Forum YOU ONLY FIND OIL IF YOU DRILL WELLS Tom Peters/New York/0524.2006.

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World Innovation Forum YOU ONLY FIND OIL IF YOU DRILL WELLS Tom Peters/New York/0524.2006

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  1. World Innovation Forum*(*Modesty is everything)EVERYTHING YOU THOUGHT YOU KNEW ABOUT INNOVATION IS WRONG*(*Except, of course, what the other presenters have said/will say)Tom Peters/New York/0524.2006

  2. World Innovation ForumYOU ONLY FIND OIL IF YOU DRILL WELLSTom Peters/New York/0524.2006

  3. Case: PerceivedRommel invents Blitzkrieg.Germans kick the tar out of the French in two weeks.Q.E.D.

  4. Case: Lesson LearnedPlanned innovation (P.I., not C.I.) is possible, is cool, is effective.

  5. Case: RealityGermans cross Meuse into France. Whoops: French intelligence completely drops the ball. (Loses track of the Germans—literally.)Germans keep advancing; outrun supply lines; no land-air co-ordination. Hitler orders advance stopped.General never gets the word. General marches to Paris, virtually unopposed.Germans shocked.After the fact, Germans label it “Blitzkrieg.”

  6. Case: Lesson LearnedDo something.Get lucky. Attribute luck to superior planning.Get medals.

  7. TP “Lessons Learned”Innovation = DisDis(Disciplined Disorganization)Luck is a very good thing.* **(*More “lessons” later: E.g., If you hire a bunch of disciplined weirdos and try a lot of weird stuff, the odds of getting lucky go up remarkably) (**Career success depends on convincing others that you knew what the hell you were doing all along. Good news: Say it long enough and loud enough and you will believe it. Great news: Keep saying it and you, too, can become a “guru.”)

  8. Lessons: ContainerizationNeed-drivenA thousand “parents”MessyEvolutionary“Trivial”ExperimentationTrial & ERRORLoooong time for systemic adaptation/s(many innovations) (bill of lading, standard time)Not …“Plan-driven”The product of “Strategic Thinking/Planning”The product of “focus groups”

  9. Slides @tompeters.com**Also: EVERYTHING.LONG

  10. PREVIEW.

  11. “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”—Charles Darwin

  12. “The most successful people are those who are good at plan B.”—James Yorke, mathematician, chaos theory specialist, in The New Scientist

  13. “We are in a brawl with no rules.”—Paul Allaire

  14. S.A.V.

  15. Sam’s Secret #1!

  16. “Rewardexcellent failures. Punishmediocre successes.”Phil Daniels, Sydney exec

  17. Axioms.

  18. What “We” Know “For Sure” About InnovationBig mergers [by & large] don’t workScale is over-ratedStrategic planning is the last refuge of scoundrelsFocus groups are counter-productive“Built to last” is a chimera Success kills“Forgetting” is impossibleRe-imagine is a charming idea“Orderly innovation process” is an oxymoronic phrase (= Believed only by morons with ox-like brains)“Tipping points” are easy to identify … long after they will do you any good“Facts” aren’tAll information making it to the top is filtered to the point of danger and hilarity“Success stories” are the illusions of egomaniacs (and “gurus”)If you believe the “cause & effect” memoirs of CEOs you should be institutionalized“Herd behavior” (XYZ is “hot”) is ubiquitous … and amusing“Top teams” are “Dittoheads”Statistically,CEOs have little effect on performance“Expert” prediction is rarely better than rolling the dice

  19. Pathetic!

  20. “Forbes100” from 1917 to 1987: 39 members of the Class of ’17 were alive in ’87; 18 in ’87 F100; 18 F100 “survivors” underperformed the market by 20%; just 2 (2%), GE & Kodak, outperformed the market 1917 to 1987.S&P 500 from 1957 to 1997: 74 members of the Class of ’57 were alive in ’97; 12 (2.4%) of 500 outperformed the market from 1957 to 1997.Source: Dick Foster & Sarah Kaplan, Creative Destruction: Why Companies That Are Built to Last Underperform the Market

  21. “I am often asked by would-be entrepreneurs seeking escape from life within huge corporate structures, ‘How do I build a small firm for myself?’ The answer seems obvious:Buy a very large one and just wait.”—Paul Ormerod, Why Most Things Fail: Evolution, Extinction and Economics

  22. “Not a single company that qualified as having made a sustained transformation ignited its leap with a big acquisition or merger.Moreover, comparison companies—those that failed to make a leap or, if they did, failed to sustain it—often tried to make themselves great with a big acquisition or merger. They failed to grasp the simple truth that while you can buy your way to growth, you cannot buy your way to greatness.”—Jim Collins/Time/2004

  23. “I don’t believe in economies of scale.You don’t get better by being bigger. You get worse.”—Dick Kovacevich/Wells Fargo/Forbes/08.04 (ROA: Wells, 1.7%; Citi, 1.5%; BofA, 1.3%; J.P. Morgan Chase, 0.9%)

  24. Scale?“Microsoft’s Struggle With Scale”—Headline, FT, 09.2005“TroublingExits at Microsoft” —Cover Story, BW, 09.2005“Too Big to Move Fast?”—Headline, BW, 09.2005

  25. More than $$$$#1R&D spending, last 25 years?

  26. GM

  27. 10,000,000,000,000**2,000,000,000

  28. EXCELLENCE. 4/40.

  29. 4/40

  30. De-cent-ral-iz-a-tion!

  31. Ex-e-cu-tion!

  32. “Execution is the jobof the business leader.”—Larry Bossidy & Ram Charan/ Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done

  33. “Execution isasystematic processof rigorously discussing hows and whats, tenaciously following through, and ensuring accountability.”—Larry Bossidy & Ram Charan/ Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done

  34. “We have a ‘strategic plan.’ It’s called doing things.”— Herb Kelleher

  35. “This is so simple it sounds stupid, but it is amazing how few oil people really understand that you only find oil if you drill wells.You may think you’re finding it when you’re drawing maps and studying logs, but you have to drill.” Source: The Hunters, by John Masters, Canadian O & G wildcatter

  36. Ac-count-a-bil-ity!

  37. “GE has set a standard of candor. … There is no puffery. … There isn’t an ounce of denial in the place.”—Kevin Sharer, CEO Amgen, on the “GE mystique” (Fortune)

  38. 6:15A.M.

  39. FLASH!Innovation is easy!

  40. “The ‘surplus society’ has a surplus of similar companies, employing similarpeople, with similareducational backgrounds, coming up with similarideas, producing similarthings, with similarprices and similarquality.” —Kjell Nordström and Jonas Ridderstråle,Funky Business

  41. We become who we hang out with!

  42. Measure “Strangeness”/Portfolio QualityStaffConsultantsVendorsOut-sourcing Partners (#, Quality)Innovation Alliance PartnersCustomersCompetitors (who we “benchmark” against)Strategic Initiatives Product Portfolio (LineEx v. Leap)IS/IT ProjectsHQ LocationLunch MatesLanguageBoard

  43. “The Bottleneck Is at the Top of the Bottle”“Where are you likely to find people with the least diversity of experience, the largest investment in the past, and the greatest reverence for industry dogma:Atthetop!”— Gary Hamel/Harvard Business Review

  44. “Beware of the tyranny of making SmallChanges to SmallThings. Rather, make Big Changes to BigThings.”—Roger Enrico, former Chairman, PepsiCo

  45. Line Extensions:86percent of new products. 62percent of revenues. 39 percent of profit.Source: Blue Ocean Strategy, Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne

  46. Innovation Index:How many of your Top 5 Strategic Initiatives/Key Projectsscore 8 or higher(out of 10) on a“Weird”/ “Profound”/ “Wow”/“Game- changer”Scale?

  47. OPPORTUNITY.

  48. “Women arethemajority market”—Fara Warner/The Power of the Purse

  49. 1. Men and women are different.2. Very different.3. VERY, VERY DIFFERENT.4. Women & Men have a-b-s-o-l-u-t-e-l-y nothing in common.5. Women buy lotsa stuff.6. WOMEN BUY A-L-L THE STUFF.7. Women’s Market = Opportunity No. 1.8. Men are (STILL) in charge.9. MEN ARE … TOTALLY, HOPELESSLY CLUELESS ABOUT WOMEN.10. Women’s Market = Opportunity No. 1.

  50. Cases!McDonald’s(“mom-centered” to “majority consumer”; not via kids)Home Depot(“Do it [everything!] Herself”)P&G(more than “house cleaner”) DeBeers(“right-hand rings”/$4B)AXA FinancialKodak(women = “emotional centers of the household”)Nike(> jock endorsements; new def sports; majority consumer)AvonBratz(young girls want “friends,” not a blond stereotype)Source: Fara Warner/The Power of the Purse

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