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James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) mera

Stories of change in Auckland, its Boards and neighbourhoods – from the 2013 Census, and other sources. James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) www.mera.co.nz Quality Hotel Parnell, Auckland 19 th -March 2014. Outline. Slides Online slides / pages.

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James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) mera

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  1. Stories of change in Auckland, its Boards and neighbourhoods – from the 2013 Census, and other sources .. James Newell, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) www.mera.co.nz Quality Hotel Parnell, Auckland 19th-March 2014

  2. Outline .. • Slides • Online slides / pages

  3. Population Change in Auckland – the big picture ..

  4. Historical (census) and Projected (Stats NZ 2012 Series) Auckland Population Change 1981-2013 Note – 2006/11 period for projections but used 2006/13 for census counts

  5. Net Change in Population Change by Age Group 2006-2013

  6. Auckland Summary

  7. % Change in Population 2006 - 2013

  8. Change in Population Density : 2006-2013persons per sq km

  9. Some High Growth Boards

  10. Changes in participation in the labour market ..

  11. Steady increase in participation in paid work by older age groups ..

  12. Sharp decrease in work participation by 15-19 yr olds over 2006-2013 ..

  13. Shifting rates of participation in work – 1981 to 2013

  14. Changes in mean household size..

  15. Mean number persons per occupied hhold – 2006 and 2013 - by Board Area

  16. Change in the mean number persons per occupied hhold – 2006-2013 by Board Area

  17. Large increase in multi-family households 2006-2013

  18. Change in multi-family hh by Board 2006-2013

  19. “Some neighbourhood level analysis - online..at “socioecometrica.co.nz”

  20. MERA online “socioecometrica” information library .. • (note : a working alpha prototype – not yet fully functional – but some initial content) • Includes statistics on places – • Regions, Territorial Local Authorities (TLAs), (Local Community Boards) and Area Unit groups (AU200613 groups) • Address - http://socioecometrica.co.nz/

  21. Library of Information on places • Area Unit “Groups” • TLAs • Regional groups of TLAs • Metadata

  22. .. 2006 area unit and new 2013 area unit data common denominator classification • This MERA custom classification that aggregates 2006 and 2013 area units to a common base • It is online • For MERA work on Greater Christchurch in particular – developing (a first prototype at moment) an “online information library” ..socioecometrica • MERA has extensive library of • census, other official statistics, administrative data, population and household estimates and projections, industry / employment, travel to work, migration … • and other inhouse data collections …

  23. 2006 & 2013 Area Unit common denominator classification (AU200613) e.g. ‘597502C’ “Rolleston”

  24. Auckland Local GeographiesLocal Labour Market Catchments / sub-catchments, 2013 Local Boards, “Communities of Interest”

  25. A land use indicator -Population density (green dots) and employment density (red dots) – as at 2006

  26. Auckland – two labour market catchments in 2006

  27. Comparing 2006 Labour Market Sub-catchments (colours) and 2013 Local Boards (black lines)

  28. Community of Interest Areas (“Communities”)

  29. Insights into ethnic compositional changes from school enrolment data 1998 - 2013

  30. Board Selected % Ethnic Composition – School Rolls 2013

  31. Board % Asian Composition – School Rolls 2013

  32. Change in Auckland Total School Roll by Ethnicity (1) - Asian

  33. Change in Auckland Total School Roll by Ethnicity (2) - Pasifika

  34. Change in Auckland Total School Roll by Ethnicity (3)

  35. Change – 5-10 yr old enrolled by Ethnic Group – Index 1.0 in 2006

  36. Selected Broad Ethnic Groups - Board Level % in 2013

  37. Asian Ethnic Groups - Board Level % in 2013

  38. Some Points – population and jobs .. • Population Growth over 2006 to 2013 lowest rate for more than 30 years .. growth rates are are slowing over time due to demographic changes .. but are still significant by NZ standards • Employment participation rate of 15-19 yr olds dropped sharply over 2006-2013 – but that of 65 and over continue to increase as well as increase in numbers at that age…

  39. Household composition .. • Mean household size increase slightly – major factor is the increase in multifamily households – in most Board areas • Employment participation rate of 15-19 yr olds dropped sharply over 2006-2013 – but that of 65 and over continue to increase as well as increase in numbers at that age…

  40. Ethnic composition (of School Age Children from Rolls) • The rate of increase in South East Asian and Indian school students increased sharply over last intercensal period – Indian now most rapidly growing group • European dropped from 39 to 35% … • Concentration of SE Asian in Mangere-Otahuhu, Maungakiekie-Tamaki, Indian in Henderson, Otara-Papatoetoe …

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