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Turbine Supply Agreements. 30 October 2012, GIZ Workshop, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Contents. GL Garrad Hassan. 1. 2. Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability. 3. Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’. 4. Summary. Contents. GL Garrad Hassan. 1. 2.
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Turbine Supply Agreements 30 October 2012, GIZ Workshop, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Contents GL Garrad Hassan 1. 2. Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability 3. Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’ 4. Summary
Contents GL Garrad Hassan 1. 2. Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability 3. Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’ 4. Summary
Local understanding forms a global perspective Heerenveen Sint Maarten Kaiser-Wilhelm- Koog Glasgow London Slough Copenhagen Hinnerup Oldenburg Hamburg Warsaw Bristol Cork Beijing Seoul Tokyo Shanghai Mumbai Bangkok Bangalore Singapore Newcastle Wellington Melbourne Vancouver Ottawa Portland San Diego Montreal Peterborough Austin Querétaro Porto Alegre Santiago Paris Imola Lisbon Barcelona Zaragoza Madrid Izmir Cairo Cape Town GL Garrad Hassan: 1,000+ staff, 44 locations, 26 countries Part of the GL Group: renewables, oil & gas, maritime
GL Garrad Hassan Capabilities • The world’s largest renewable energy consultancy. It offers independent technical and engineering services, products, and training courses to the onshore and offshore wind, wave, tidal and solar sectors. • Has been supporting investors in wind farms for over two decades. The detailed technical understanding of its experts provides a solid basis for informing intelligent decisions, regardless of the scale of the project or investment, or the lifecycle stage. • Has worked with almost every major manufacturer. It has led the market for manufacturer services for many years and is continuously developing its industry standard turbine design software.
Wind: Experience Matters Short-term forecasting • over 20% of the world’s operational capacity Measurements • power curve measurements on 500+ turbines • load measurements on 100+ turbines • founding member of MEASNET • first ever load measurements on offshore wind farm Products / software solutions • Industry standard wind turbine design software - Bladed • Bladed used to design world’s largest turbine • world‘s largest independent SCADA supplier – 6,000 MW Offshore Wind • project management of world’s largest offshore wind farm - Thanet Energy Assessment • analysing 20,000 MW of new projects per year • 25% of all projects worldwide • 70% of UK installed capacity • 75% of Irish installed capacity Operational Assessment • 15% of the world’s installed capacity Due Diligence • over 25% of the world’s project financed wind farms • world’s largest wind farm portfolio acquisition • world’s first wind energy bond deal Independent Engineer • 45% of US wind farms • The world’s five largest wind farm financings • The first project financed offshore wind farm
Contents GL Garrad Hassan 1. 2. Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability 3. Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’ 4. Summary
Environmental Criteria • The following site-specific environmental criteria should be considered when assessing turbine suitability:
IEC Classification • Site specific characteristics should be compared to turbine class limits as defined in IEC 61400, as follows:
Certification Process • Certification is used to give a standard measure of quality and is undertaken by recognised international classification bodies, including GL Renewables Certification. • For wind projects, the certification process confirms conformity with design standards according to ‘IEC 61400’ part 1 – safety systems. • Statement of Compliance for the A / B / C Design Assessment.
Certification Process • Additional requirements exist in order to obtain Type Certification in accordance with IEC WT 01.
Certified Turbines • A detailed list of certifications and references for wind turbines, offshore projects, condition monitoring systems / monitoring bodies, electrical components, foundations, gearboxes, grid code compliance, rotor blades, and towers can be from the GL Renewables Certification website. • http://www.gl-group.com/en/certification/renewables/ListOfCertifications.php
Other Considerations • When considering turbine suitability, consideration needs to be given to other factors including: • power curve and energy production (!!!) • planning compliance and development constraints. • electricity grid reliability and connection requirements. • site access, transportation and storage. • availability of installation and maintenance equipment (eg. cranes). • anticipated operating temperatures. • tropical storm activity.
Contents GL Garrad Hassan 1. 2. Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability 3. Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’’ 4. Summary
FINACIAL CLOSE SITE DISCOVERY TAKE OVER DEVELOPMENT PHASE (0.5 to several years) DISCONNECTION CONCLUSION MEDIUM RISK & MEDIUM RETURN LOW RISK & LOW RETURN CASH FLOW MEDIUM RISK & HIGH RETURN HIGH RISK & HIGH INVESTMENT MEDIUM RISK & LOW INVESTMENT CONSTRUCTION PHASE (12 to 18 months) OPERATIONAL PHASE (20 to 25 years) DECOMISSIONING PHASE (3 to 4 months) BREAK EVEN (loan repaid) Wind Farm Project Cashflow
Wind Farm Investment Risks • What are some of the key investment risks in a wind farm project?
- 6 months - 5 months - 2 months - 1 month +18 months + X years Detailed Banking Model, audit & tax Initial Banking Model Construction Draw Down Operational Repayments Basic Feasibility Model FINACIALCLOSE Due Diligence Monitoring Energy Assessment Due Diligence Monitoring Due Diligence (legal, technical, insurance) Term Sheet Syndication Final Payment Final Acceptance Initial Proposal Credit Approval Wind Farm Project Financing Timeline
Turbine Pricing • Global wind turbine price index by delivery date: Japan Australia United States China Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / International Renewable Energy Agency
KEY CONSIDERATIONS TURBINE DESIGN • Effecting power output: • Optimum Hub Height • Optimum Blade diameter • Proven Installation record • Proven Availability record • Proven component reliability • Proven power & thrust curve • Proven climate / icing control • Correct IEC class, type certified Turbine Technological Risk
Key Technical Considerations • The key technical considerations for turbine selection include: • What is the Gearbox reliability? • What is the Generator reliability? • How much Capital cost is involved? • How much are the long term O&M costs? • What quality assurances are there?
Local Content • List of existing and proposed wind turbine manufacturing facilities in Vietnam: Source: Make Consulting
A Proven Turbine Model? • For a genuine evolution from a smaller turbine GL GH may consider that the turbine may be considered proven if the following conditions are met: • Capable of performing the contractual and commercial obligations. • Certification is current (and valid) – design, type (and class – I, II, III & S). • There are 100 turbines in operation. • At least one turbine with more than 10,000 hours of operation. • A fleet with in excess of 50,000 cumulative hours. • Greater than 95 % average availability of the fleet. • Availability of independent test reports (unless a commodity).
Contents GL Garrad Hassan 1. 2. Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability 3. Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’ 4. Summary
Summary • Demonstrate suitability for site - certification and site comparison. • Include certification requirements in specification. • Make sure that the designed turbine will be delivered as per specification. • Ensure independent test reports unless a “commodity”. • Choose a turbine with maximum track record. • Specify environmental, performance and reliability requirements. • Use the IEC standards as far as possible. • Ensure local / national compliance.
Thank-you!Daniel Astbury – Senior Engineer, Business Development Manager – Thailanddaniel.astbury@gl-garradhassan.com