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A core Course on Modeling

A core Course on Modeling. Introduction to Modeling 0LAB0 0LBB0 0LCB0 0LDB0 c.w.a.m.v.overveld@tue.nl v.a.j.borghuis@tue.nl P.16. Criteria for modeling: convincingness. Convincingness : a model is more convincing if it contains fewer and /or less implausible assumptions .

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A core Course on Modeling

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  1. A core Course on Modeling Introductionto Modeling 0LAB0 0LBB0 0LCB0 0LDB0 c.w.a.m.v.overveld@tue.nl v.a.j.borghuis@tue.nl P.16

  2. Criteria for modeling: convincingness Convincingness: a model is more convincingifitcontainsfewerand/or lessimplausibleassumptions.

  3. Criteria for modeling: convincingness Convincingness: a model is more convincingifitcontainsfewerand/or lessimplausibleassumptions. • Most convincing: are assumptionslogicallydeduciblefromother, lessproblematicassumptions? • (example: If we assume on average 1 kW power consumption, • andif we assume 100 hours of work, then the energy consumption is 100 kWh: this is a logicalnecessity, givenby the definition of ‘power’, ‘energy’ and ‘average’.)

  4. Criteria for modeling: convincingness Convincingness: a model is more convincingifitcontainsfewerand/or lessimplausibleassumptions. • If no logicalnecessity, are thereany first-principle ‘laws’ to back up assumptions? • (example: ifthis component behaves as a lever, we canuse the physicallaws of torque in a lever.)

  5. Criteria for modeling: convincingness Convincingness: a model is more convincingifitcontainsfewerand/or lessimplausibleassumptions. • Ifthere are no lawsavailable, canwe construct a simplifiedformal model system? • In a formal model system laws do apply (e.g., replace the world + oceans by a homogenous ball covered by a sheet of water). • The measure of correspondence between these two is left out of the discussion; convincingness relies on the agreement with empirical data.

  6. Criteria for modeling: convincingness Convincingness: a model is more convincingifitcontainsfewerand/or lessimplausibleassumptions. • Ifformal model system is not possible, canwe get support fromcomparisontoobservations on anempirical model system? • Examples of empirical model system • physical: water tank, wind tunnel • economical, social: comparative populations, historical survey data • biological: the guinea pig!

  7. Criteria for modeling: convincingness Convincingness: a model is more convincingifitcontainsfewerand/or lessimplausibleassumptions. • If even anempirical model system is not possible, is there at leastany argument forconsistency of the assumptions? • (example: priceelasticity, ‘fun’ in the taxi model.)

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