Overview of Kingdon Model

1. Overview of Kingdon Model

2. Introduction • Kingdon initially did an analysis of four policies at the federal level to identify a model or framework to explain and ultimately predict what will happen. His unstated conclusion is that you cannot predict. • He used four case studies that although not recent are still relevant for analysis and noteworthy for how varied are the subjects: • HMO • National Health Insurance under Carter • Deregulation of transportation (aviation, trucking and railroads) • Waterway user changes

3. Two Interacting Components • Actors • Processes or Streams • They are not independent entities but interact with each other

4. Actors • Executive branch of government • Legislative branch of government • Interest Groups

5. Executive Branch • There is visibility to many actions • They have • Organizational cohesion • Resources • Access to the public

6. Executive Branch: Cues • Repitition of the “on point” message • To media outlets • To legislature • From a variety of executive branch actors/employees Look for repeated phrases

7. Staff (part of executive branch) • If you ever saw the TV program West Wing that is a fairly accurate model for staff. Or in the US in 2009-10 think about reaction to the President’s point person: Raul Emmanuel • Staff role not always visible. Many administrations work to keep meetings and activities out of the public eye. • Staff involved in many things such as liaison to capitol hill and legislators

8. Cabinet (part of executive branch) • Different degrees of power depending first on the cabinet office and then on the person. • Seldom last the full four year term. • Influence can be tremendous – think about the Secretary of Defense being very strong or the Secretary of Health and Human Services not being strong or influential.

9. Civil Servants/Bureaucrats Do not directly influence policy but have three valuable characteristics: Longevity Expertise Relationships with many sources such as scientists in the case of healthcare

10. Iron Triangle • More subtle in terms of visibility but powerful • Operate effectively in conflict situations: Think policy discussions on oil drilling or health care reform • Who is in the Iron Triangle • Bureaucrats • Committee and committee chairman • Interest groups

11. Legislative Branch - Visible • They look for consensus and reaction of constituents • Legal authority • Publicity in many forms – think “sound bites” • Blended information from many sources • Friends and constituents • Summary documents from their staffers • Oral information and documents from interest groups

12. Legislative Committee Staffers • Expertise (one staffer recently said she had spent one year on just the healthcare bill) • Invisible except at committee hearing where sit behind the chairman • Hired by the committee chairman • Offer information and alternatives to a particular bill or topic being discussed • Senator or House representative cannot have expertise on every bill that comes up

13. Committee Chairman • Chairman is a member of the party in power • Selection based on longevity • Some committees more powerful and sought after than others • Chairman can be a significant power broker in legislative decisions

14. Interest Groups • They are everywhere and often effective • Visibility varies • Tag team with others groups depending on the issue or legislation leading to “strange bedfellows” at times: But it is all about influence • Methods vary: Negative blocking one method • Academics among this group with varying levels of influence depending on the issue

15. Media • Includes: newsprint, TV and Internet sources • How much influence: some reports suggest limited • People tend to select media outlets that confirm their attitudes or opinions – not seeking new information • Can magnify issues • Can communicate issues

16. Other Interest Groups • One issue groups for example a particular disease such as autism • Professional experts across the political spectrum (examples only) • Conservative: American Enterprise Institute, American Family Association • Liberal: Brookings Institute, Commonweal Institute • Centrist: Rand Corporations, Pew Research Center

17. Processes or Streams of ActivityAgenda SettingProblem Recognition • Need to recognize there is a problem which is open to interpretation: see next slide • Multiple sources and forces • Medicine less visible but that has changed with healthcare reform on the front burner

18. Problem Interpretation • Infant mortality Poor prenatal care Multiple births Age of women Poverty Obesity Poor healthcare habits Food resources such as schools and neighborhoods offer poor nutritional value Lack of exercise Parental oversight limited Lack of knowledge about healthcare and good eating habits

19. Problem Interpretation • Complexity theory tells us that most problems are not simple • Complexity makes policy difficulty to identify and sell (e.g.the public) and change • Values and interests change

20. Policy FormulationLegislation • Kingdon writes that “solutions wait for problems.” • Nursing wanted reimbursement – but the connection and legislation was “tagged on”. • Networks made up of a few to many groups may try to soften up an issue or to increase the pressure about problems that will occur if a particular bill is passed or not passed

21. Survival Criteria • Tolerable cost • Value acceptability • Anticipated public agreement • Technically feasible • Reasonable chance for the elected official to be receptive to the policy

22. POLITICS • Electoral makeup • Pressure groups • Bargaining • Persuasion • Public mood • Organization of political forces

23. It is a Mystery • Well not quite a mystery – there may be more than one stream in operation to move a policy in a particular direction. • The key is their coming together . But often brief and not always predictable.

24. A Window • Kingdon’s theory is that a window of opportunity suddenly and briefly occurs with a “joining of streams” • Not always predictable • Often random

25. Unpredictable • A midterm election that changes the majority in the Senate by one seat • The death of an influential member such as Senator Kennedy • A major public event

26. Citation • Adapted and added to from • Kingdon, J.W. (1995). Agendas, alternatives, and public policies. 2nd ed. NY: Harper Collins College publishers.