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Green Growth OECD – CANADA 50 YEARS 3 rd June 2011

Green Growth OECD – CANADA 50 YEARS 3 rd June 2011. Simon Upton, Director, Environment. Growth & development. Wealth and GDP (2005 US$ per capita, wealth on bottom axis). Low income. Middle income. Growth – not just a developing country concern. Demographics. Jobs. Debt.

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Green Growth OECD – CANADA 50 YEARS 3 rd June 2011

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  1. Green Growth OECD – CANADA 50 YEARS 3rd June 2011 Simon Upton, Director, Environment

  2. Growth & development Wealth and GDP (2005 US$ per capita, wealth on bottom axis) Low income Middle income

  3. Growth – not just a developing country concern Demographics Jobs Debt

  4. The need for green 2050 World GDP (2005, PPP) USD 300 trillion 2030 USD 150 trillion 2010USD 70 trillion Food + 35% Energy + 37% Resources + 70% 1990 Source: OECD Source: Global Footprint Network

  5. Risks in not going green: bottlenecks Source: OECD. Source: World Bank

  6. Risks in not going green: shocks to food supply Biodiversity loss(2000-2030) Pressures on natural capital By 2030, business as usual: Production +35% Land +6% Land at risk of erosion + 17% Water scarcity +30% % mean species abundance loss Source: OECD

  7. Risks in not going green: water scarcity Living with risk of water scarcity (millions of people under water stress) Source: OECD

  8. Risks in not going green: pollution and human health Premature deaths from PM10 exposure(per million inhabitants) Source: OECD

  9. Risks in not going green: systemic risks GHG emissions and climate change(per million inhabitants) Costs of climate change(% loss, present value of consumption) Source: OECD (see e.g. OECD (2008) “Costs of Inaction”) andUK Treasury “Stern review”

  10. Better measurement: the capital base of economies Capital stock shares Source: Arrow et al (2009) in NBER WP 16599

  11. Better measurement for better policy choices Cost of GHG mitigation: GDP and GDP+ Source: OECD

  12. Growth from green perspective Direct cost of GHG mitigation Structural reforms The gap in 2050 = 4% Source: OECD

  13. Green Fiscal Reform US Japan Ireland UK Deficit improvement to stabilise debt by 2025, % of GDP New Zealand Greece Netherlands Sweden Switzerland Revenue from taxes on energy, CO2 and other pollutants, % of GDP, 2008. Excludes vehicle taxes

  14. Current environmental taxes Tax revenue, % of GDP

  15. Improving resource management State of catch fisheries, 2008 Revenue, 2004 Over-exploited(31%) $78 billion Subsidies Fully-exploited (53%) $10 bn+ Economic loss $50 billion Operating deficit, $5 billion Under-exploited(16%) Source: FAO Source: “Sunken Billions”, FAO World Bank

  16. Removing fossil fuel subsidies Income gains from unilateral subsidy removal (% change in HH income vs BAU) 10% less emissions globally from removal of fossil fuel subsidies USD 312 billion 2009 , developing country fossil fuel consumption subsidies ? USD 115 billion, 2009 investment in renewables Source: Joint OECD/IEA analysis

  17. Reframing environmental challenges Regulation and diffusion of ICT US Sweden ICT investment % of total, average 1995-2003 UK Belgium Canada Greece Germany France Spain Regulation in ICT-using sectors Average1995-2003 Source: OECD

  18. Overcoming inertia Lifespan of capital investments World GDP USD 16 trillion Rents embodied in fossil fuel reserves USD 6.7 trillion Sunk capital

  19. Costs of moving too slow Coal-fired generation capacity, IEA 450ppm scenario 300GW retired early (loss > USD 70 billion)

  20. Response to prices NOx Tax in Sweden Source: OECD

  21. It’s ok to imagine new patterns of growth and innovation Source: Merrill Lynch

  22. Green Growth framework

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