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DROUGHT ACTIVITIES AT NOAA’S SOUTHERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER

Learn about ongoing research activities and product development initiatives related to drought understanding and forecasting at NOAA's Southern Regional Climate Center.

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DROUGHT ACTIVITIES AT NOAA’S SOUTHERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER

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  1. DROUGHT ACTIVITIES AT NOAA’S SOUTHERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER Luigi Romolo, NOAA’s SRCC Regional Climatologist

  2. WHAT CAN THE SRCC • DO TO IMPROVE THE • UNDERSTANDING OF • DROUGHT ??? • Drought Research • Product Development

  3. Outline for today: • Drought Research • Internal LSU Faculty Research Grant • Foster a research partnership with NIDIS • Identifying synoptic controls on drought • Identifying the broad-scale atmospheric controls • TRACS Project (pending funding) • ENSO-based streamflow forecasting tool • Developed by the LMRFC • Aim to transition the application to an operational climate service setting

  4. Drought Research: Synoptic Controls on Drought Indices in the Southeastern United States: Present and Future

  5. Study Area: 20°- 40°N & 110°- 75°W

  6. Synoptic window Synoptic level Day 1 Day n TIME SERIES

  7. F(x) Surface Environment

  8. Surface Environment: • Temperature & Precipitation • Degree-Days • Palmer Drought Severity Index • Keetch-Byram Drought Index • Standardized Precipitation Index • Visual Greenness Index

  9. Frequency Distribution example: SAMPLE

  10. Example for Precipitation: 16 Types: 10 dry, 6 wet SAMPLE

  11. ? PNA PDO SOI (ENSO) Current Future (GCMs) Scale Issue NCEP/NCAR CGCM Future Teleconnections Same ? or Different ? Teleconnections ?

  12. Potential for Product Development: • Results can be tied into a Numerical Weather Prediction Model or Land-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme • Results can be tied into a Neural Network • By understanding the broad-scale controls on drought we increase our ability to forecast drought

  13. Drought Product Development: Enhanced Seasonal Forecast of Hydrological Conditions for Drought Planning and Mitigation

  14. TRACS PROPOSAL: Joint Project between the SRCC & LMRFC SRCC LMRFC

  15. Developed by LMRFC originally for the Pearl Basin: • Manual in nature • Plan to automate it and develop a web-based interface • Expand it to a region and then national scale (2700 stations)

  16. Forecast /Products: • historical composite tables • seasonal streamflow • monthly streamflow • 75 (25) percent exceedence (non-exceedence) • lead times 0.5 to 12.5 months • Methodology: uses a NOAA/NWS developed composite analysis (Marina Timofeyeva) • Data: USGS streamflow values, CPC Nino 3.4 SST probabilities

  17. Seasonal Forecasting of Streamflow This produces a composite table similar to: Historical Composites are produced by dividing the Below, Near, and Above normal values by the total number of ENSO years

  18. Historical Composites Table

  19. Seasonal Forecasting of Streamflow Historical composite values are combined with the CPC Nino 3.4 SST probabilities to produce forecasts for streamflow (0.5 to 12.5 month lead time) P(BELOW)= P(ENB)*P(CPCA)+P(NB)*P(CPCN)+P(LNB)*P(CPCB) P(NORMAL)= P(ENN)*P(CPCA)+P(NN)*P(CPCN)+P(LNN)*P(CPCB) P(ABOVE(= P(ENA)*P(CPCA)+P(NA)*P(CPCN)+P(LNA)*P(CPCB)

  20. Probabilities at each site are tested for statistical significance using a hypergeometric function 90% confidence level is used If any of the 9 episode-category combinations are significant, then forecasts can be issued Otherwise an “Equal Chances” forecasted is issued

  21. INCREASED SKILL INCREASED SKILL DECREASEDSKILL

  22. SRCC: Computing Power: BEOWOLF CLUSTER 41 nodes:   Benchmark ~ 0.1725 TeraflopsRanking: In 2002, SuperMike was ranked as the 11th fastestsupercomputer in the world. Among academic institutionsworldwide, SuperMike was ranked 2nd.

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