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Effectiveness of sentencing. July 2011. 1. criminal justice system. 2. current thinking. 3. statistical methods. 4. results + implications. 1. criminal justice system. 2. current situation. 3. statistical methods. 4. results + implications. 1. criminal justice system.
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Effectiveness of sentencing July 2011
1. criminal justice system 2. current thinking 3. statistical methods 4. results + implications
1. criminal justice system 2. current situation 3. statistical methods 4. results + implications
1. criminal justice system 2. current situation 3. statistical methods 4. results + implications
1. criminal justice system 2. current situation 3. statistical methods 4. results + implications
1. criminal justice system idiot’s guide
court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision community orders supervision probation police requirements prison suspended sentence orders seriousness
court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision community orders supervision probation police requirements prison suspended sentence orders seriousness
court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision community orders supervision probation police requirements prison suspended sentence orders seriousness
court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision community orders supervision probation police requirements prison suspended sentence orders seriousness
court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision community orders supervision probation police requirements prison suspended sentence orders seriousness
court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision community orders supervision probation police requirements prison suspended sentence orders seriousness
court non-custodial out of court cautions fines other court orders reprimands warnings community orders police suspended sentence orders
court non-custodial out of court cautions fines other court orders reprimands warnings police requirements
court non-custodial out of court cautions fines other court orders reprimands warnings probation police
court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision supervision probation police prison seriousness
court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision supervision probation police prison seriousness
court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings police probation prison seriousness
court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision supervision probation police seriousness
court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision supervision probation police seriousness
court non-custodial out of court court custodial cautions fines other court orders short less 12M long 12M or more reprimands warnings no supervision supervision probation police seriousness
2. current situation 2008
2. current situation 2008 before this work
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 40,534 9,285 7,030 matched 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate comparisons not valid 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate similar offenders 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate similar offenders 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
comparison 3 comparison 2 comparison 1 court orders short less 12M short less 12M long 1-2y long 1-2y long 2-4y 143,000 41,000 41,000 11,000 11,000 10,000 E&W 36.2% 59.4% 59.4% 39.9% 39.9% 35.4% rate 18 37 37 28 28 30 prev 52.0% 58.9% 50.0% 39.4% 39.1% 34.4% rate similar offenders 40,513 9,276 7,026 rv matched 53.6% 58.8% 47.1% 39.7% 38.2% 34.8% rate
3. statistical methods ideally randomised control trial
3. statistical methods ideally randomised control trial well constructed matched groups
two methods exact matching
two methods exact matching propensity score model