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Researcher Perspective Talk: Modelling developmental processes

Researcher Perspective Talk: Modelling developmental processes. Vaso Totsika CEDAR. Intellectual Disability and Autism. Intellectual disability : below average cognitive skills ( coupled with significant limitations in adaptive skills) Present in about 3% of the population

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Researcher Perspective Talk: Modelling developmental processes

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  1. Researcher Perspective Talk:Modelling developmental processes VasoTotsika CEDAR

  2. Intellectual Disability and Autism • Intellectual disability: below average cognitive skills (coupled with significant limitations in adaptive skills) • Present in about 3% of the population • Autism: neurodevelopmental disorder. Problems in social interaction, patterns of communication, and a repetitive repertoire of interests and behaviours • Present in about 1% of the population

  3. Why SEM?

  4. What I/we knew so far…. • 10s of studies: children with autism have higher levels of behaviour problems than typically developing children • 10s of studies: increased stress levels in mothers of children with autism • The two must be related (?)

  5. Yes, they are • 10s of studies suggesting child behaviour problems a systematic ‘predictor’ of parental well-being • Evidence suggested that child CB a significant ‘predictor’ of parental well-being even after accounting for child ability/severity of ASD. • Evidence suggested that after controlling for child CB, parental well-being no longer different from parents of TD children • Cross-sectional…

  6. Longitudinal studies Multiple Regression Model 1 Multiple Regression Model 2 Child CB T1 Parent Stress T1 Child CB T2 Parent Stress T2 Parent Stress T1 Child CB T1 T1-T2 Change in par. stress T1-T2 Change in child CB • If R2 for step 2 increased and betas for other person’s variables p<.05: significant • If significant in both models: evidence of bidirectional relationship

  7. What is a bidirectional relationship? Developmental theory -How best to describe the relationship between children and parents? • Children and parents are dynamic entities • What are the processes that explain development? • Children and their environments are in a state of constant interplay, shaping one another all the time (transactional relationship –Sameroff’s work) ---- How can this be modelled??

  8. Transactional model Sameroff, 2009, p.13

  9. Makes sense now… Structural equation model, path model, cross-lagged panel study, cross-lagged path analysis

  10. Structural Equation Models • Statistical methodology • Main function: to confirm a theory. • Can model a number of relationships (structural equations) simultaneously. • Structural relationships can be modelled pictorially (very useful for longitudinal data). • Allows for observed variables but also latent factors • Not so well developed (yet) for non-interval-level outcomes

  11. Totsika et al., 2013

  12. Conclusion • Findings did not support the presence of a bidirectional relationship. • Child behaviour had a near-zero effect on maternal well-being across all models. • Maternal psychological distress was associated with an increase in child behaviour problems 2 years later • Maternal life satisfaction was associated with decreased child behaviour problems 2 years later • So, is maternal well-being a risk factor for child behaviour?

  13. Identifying Risk • Not an analysis issue • A conceptual issue that (should) affects the design of studies that want to identify risk factors • To establish that a factor is a risk factor for an adverse outcome: • It has to precede the outcome • It has to be correlated to the outcome

  14. Totsika et al., in press

  15. How do risk factors work together? • Independent risk factors • Mediators • Moderators • Proxy risk factors All risk factors. Three things are important in helping us determine their relationship: a. Temporal precedence, b. correlation, c. dominance Kraemer et al., 2001; Kraemer 2010

  16. Systematic definition of risk • Framework applied when (a) established risk factors but unknown relationship (e.g., predicting re-offence (Lofthouse et al., in press), (b) selecting variables for confirming a hypothesised relationship Kraemer et al., 2001

  17. Back to development • (My) world is full of risk and moderators! • SEP is a risk factor for child behaviour • SEP is a risk factor for mat depression • SEP moderates child CB- mat. well-being r • Coping moderates child CB- mat. well-being r • Social support moderates child CB- mat. well-being r • Social support is a protective factor for mat. Depression • Poor parenting a risk factor for child behaviour • Interaction terms in Regression /ANOVA p<.05= Moderator! • Moderators are sig. interactions but not all interactions are significant moderators.

  18. Back to theory Parent emotional probs Child well-being SEP Parenting Conger & Donellan, 2007 T 1 T 2 T 3 T 4

  19. Parent emotional probs Child well-being SEP Parenting ? ? Par. investment T 1 T 3 T 2 T 4

  20. SEM • A very useful technique for describing developmental processes / longitudinal relationships • Modelling many regressions at once approximates better real-life than a series of regression models • Pictorial + many time points: helpful in understanding/test risk relationships

  21. Thank you V.Totsika@warwick.ac.uk • Conger, R.D., & Donellan, M.B. (2007). An interactionist perspective on the socioeconomic context of human development. Annual Review of Psychology, 58, 175-199. • Kraemer, H.C. (2010). Epidemiological methods: About time. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 7, 29-45. • Kraemer, H.C., Stice, E., Kazdin, A., & Kupfer, D. (2001). How do risk factors work together to produce an outcome? Mediators, moderators, independent, overlapping and proxy risk factors. American Journal of Psychiatry, 258, 848-856. • Lofthouse, R., Totsika, V., Hastings, R.P., Lindsay, W.R., Hogue, T.E., & Taylor, J.L. (2014). How do static and dynamic risk factors work together to predict violent behaviour amongst offenders with an intellectual disability? Journal of Intellectual Disability Research, 58,125-133. • Totsika, V., Hastings, R.P., Vagenas, D., & Emerson, E. (in press). Parenting and the behaviour problems of young children with an intellectual disability: Concurrent and longitudinal relationships in a population-based study. American Journal on Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities. • Totsika, V., Hastings, R.P., Emerson, E., Lancaster, G.A., Berridge, D.M., & Vagenas, D. (2013). Is there a bidirectional relationship between maternal well-being and child problem behaviors in autism spectrum disorders? Longitudinal analysis of a population-defined sample of young children. Autism Research, 6(3), 201-211.

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