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Momentum of production is moderating toward more sustainable rates

The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2010 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group. Momentum of production is moderating toward more sustainable rates. industrial production (percent change, saar ). Source: World Bank, Development Prospects Group.

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Momentum of production is moderating toward more sustainable rates

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  1. The External Environment for Developing CountriesJanuary 2010The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

  2. Momentum of production is moderating toward more sustainable rates industrial production (percent change, saar) Source: World Bank, Development Prospects Group.

  3. World trade picks up steam as stimulus measures boost imports goods import volumes, OECD and developing countries (ch%, saar) Source: World Bank, Development Prospects Group.

  4. Industrial countries

  5. Improvements in labor markets now setting the tone for increased spending change in employment (‘000, 3mma) [L]; income and retail sales x autos, ch% (saar) [R] retail x autos [R] change in employment [L] Source: U.S. Departments of Labor and Commerce.

  6. Durable goods orders and factory output momentum fade in late 2009 durable goods orders, mfgr output, ch% (saar) [L]; ISM mfgr headline index (3mma) [R] Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

  7. Pick-up in energy and commodity prices lifts CPI to positive territory (y/y)consumer and producer price indices, ch% (saar and 3mma yr/yr) CPI saar CPI yr/yr PPI saar Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

  8. Japan spending under pressure from rising unemployment, falling wages unemployment rate (%) [L]; real HH expenditures, cash wages, ch% (y/y) [R] Unemployment rate [L] Cash wages [R] Source: Japan Cabinet Office (EPA).

  9. Japan’s corporate and residential investment (homebuilding) in the doldrums fixed investment, business and residential (homebuilding), ch% saar Source: Japan Cabinet Office (EPA).

  10. Japan exports up sharply at year endas OECD imports reviveJapan machinery orders, export volumes and industrial production, ch% saar Source: Japan EPA through Thomson/Datastream.

  11. Euro Area sentiment up in the new yearIFO survey (overall and expectations) [left]; Euro Area consumer confidence [right] Euro Area Consumer Confidence [R] IFO- overall [L] IFO- expectations [L] Source: IFO and European Commission.

  12. Euro Area unemployment worsens quickly placing damper on spending number of unemployed (millions) [L]; retail sales volume, ch% (3mma, y/y) [R] Number of unemployed [L] Euro Area retail volumes [R] Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.

  13. German exports pick-up at end-year on strong orders for capital equipment German export orders, export volumes and industrial production, ch% saar Source: Bundesbank through Thomson/Datastream.

  14. Industrial production

  15. Momentum of industrial production is moderating Industrial production (percent change, saar) Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data

  16. Chinese output momentum supported by domestic demand and a pick-up in exports Industrial production (percent change, saar) Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data

  17. Euro zone production rises on stronger demand for intermediate and capital goods Industrial production (percent change, saar) Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data

  18. International trade

  19. Global imbalances have begun to stabilize at lower levels Total goods trade balance, minus all crude oil imports, US$ bn, sa. annualized China excluding oil USA excluding oil Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Haver Analytics.

  20. Foreign demand for high-income exports weakens in fourth quarter Export orders, Germany and the United States (ISM) Source: Bundesbank and Institute for Supply Management.

  21. Export growth accelerating in developing countriesvolume of exports, 3m/3m moving average, saar % chg Source: DECPG.

  22. Oil prices

  23. Oil prices rise above $80/bbl $/bbl mb/d OPEC Production [R] Oil price [L scale] Source: IEA and DECPG.

  24. U.S. crude oil inventories M bbl 5-year high-low ranges Source: U.S. Department of Energy and DECPG.

  25. Natural gas and coal prices $/mmbtu Source: World Gas Intelligence, International Coal Report, and DECPG.

  26. Non-oil commodity prices

  27. Agriculture prices continue to increase on supply constraints (2000=100) Source: DECPG.

  28. Metals prices rise on expectations of stonger demand $/ton Source: LME and DECPG.

  29. Gold prices come off their highs $/toz Gold in dollars Gold in euros Source: LME and DECPG.

  30. International Finance

  31. A surge in bank lending at year end Source: DECPG.

  32. EM bond issuance activity off to a strong start in 2010 sovereign bond issuance, monthly, bn USD Source: Dealogic and DECPG staff calculations.

  33. EM assets appear fairly strong at the start of 2010 MSCI-EM in USD [L]; EMBIG bond index [R] EMBIG bond index [R] MSCI-EM$ index [L] Source: JPMorgan-Chase and Bloomberg.

  34. Currencies

  35. Dollar recoups 2.5% over 2010 to date on more upbeat growth expectations USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] USD/Euro (inverse) yen/USD Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  36. Expectations for growth move in U.S. favorConsensus mean GDP growth: forecast for 2010 sampled during 2009/10 United States Euro Area Japan Forecast Date in 2009/10: Source: Consensus Economics LLC.

  37. The External Environment for Developing CountriesJanuary 2010The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

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