Theory and Hands On: Habitat Risk Assessment

1. Theory and Hands On: Habitat Risk Assessment Katie Arkema, Joey Bernhardt, Gregg Verutes

2. Goals for this session • Gain an understanding of science behind the model • Understand the data you need to run the model and practice running it yourself • Share examples of how the model can be used to meet management and conservation goals

3. Habitats

4. Habitats provide services Habitat for fisheries Recreational opportunities Storm protection

5. Risk to habitat structure and function Halpern et al 2008

6. Habitat Risk Scenarios Services

7. Questions the model can answer • Which habitats are most at risk and where? • What types of management options may be useful for reducing risk? • Where may human activities create trade-offs among environmental services by posing risk high enough to compromise habitat structure and function?

8. Final output • habitat risk • ecosystem risk

9. Related models and approaches Consequence HIGH RISK • Cumulative impact mapping (Halpern et al 2008) • InVEST Habitat Quality model • Risk assessment literature Exposure • Human health, safety engineering, oil, military, aerospace • Fisheries science

10. What do we mean by risk? Should I walk over the ice to my car? • Where is the ice in relation to my car and me? • Has the ground been sanded? • Is the ice just thin and patchy or more dangerous? • If I fall, how bad will my injury be? • Am I young and resilient or old? Will I break an arm or leg? • Am I wearing high heels or snow boots?

11. Criteria Patrick et al 2010, Hobday et al. 2007

12. Criteria Ratings Patrick et al 2010, Hobday et al. XXX Patrick et al 2010, Hobday et al 2007

13. Criteria Ratings • Weighted average • data quality • importance • Weighted average • data quality • importance

14. Calculate risk

15. Outputs – Risk mapsWhere is risk highest? • cumulative • habitat risk • ecosystem risk

16. Outputs - Risk hotspotsWhere may services provided by habitats be compromised in the future? RISK TOCORALS RISK TOMANGROVES RISK TOSEAGRASS Habitat Risk Assessment Low Medium High

17. Outputs – Risk plotsStrategies for reducing risk Intensive intervention: if this area overlaps with high benefits, then limit damaging uses and restore here Monitor and prepare for climate stressors etc. HIGH RISK Consequence (endogenous: regeneration, connectivity etc) Develop uses here Low intensity intervention LOW RISK EXPOSURE (exogenous: management, intensity, timing etc)

18. Applications • Belize – coastal zone management plan • WCVI – site activities, trade-offs among services

19. Coastal zone management plan for Belize Consequence HIGH RISK Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials EXPOSURE Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities • Draft zoning plans • current uses • future uses • stakeholder engagement • reports • Risk to habitats • coral • mangroves • seagrass

20. Outputs - Risk hotspotsWhere may services provided by habitats be compromised in the future? High RiskArea (km2) 98.70 6.44 56.10 RISK TOSEAGRASS Habitat Risk Assessment Low Medium High

21. Crop Pollination Water Purification Marine Water Quality Aquaculture Renewable Energy Managed Timber Production Reservoir Hydropower Production Habitat Risk Assessment; Biodiversity Coastal Vulnerability AestheticQuality Sediment Retention Groundwater Recharge Coastal Protection Recreation InVEST Models & Linkages Agricultural Production Flood Risk Mitigation Fisheries (including recreational) Overlap Analysis Carbon Storage& Sequestration (Blue Carbon) Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 supporting service Optional model linkage, no sequencing Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 that quantifies service Required/optional model linkage, sequencing needed Marine model: Tier 1 supporting service Marine model: Tier 1 that quantifies service Marine model: Tier 0 Model coming soon!

22. What types of decisions could the HRA model inform?

23. Data requirements • Shapefiles for all habitats • Shapefiles for all stressors • Criteria rating table

24. Break for hands-on session

25. You have a risk map! Now what? Future Ecosystem Risk (cumulative risk to all habitats)

26. 1. 2. 3. Which stressors pose the greatest risk? Where are the risk hotspots? Where will there be trade-offs among activities?

27. 1. 2. 3. Which stressors pose the greatest risk? Where are the risk hotspots? Where will there be trade-offs among activities?

28. Sketch out possible futures New resort Eelgrass restoration New clearcuts New shellfish tenures Eelgrass restoration Recreation and tourism Forestry Shellfish harvest

29. Shellfish harvest, tourism Habitat extent Effects on other services that depend on healthy habitats?

30. Trade-offs among services Future Ecosystem Risk (cumulative risk to all habitats)

31. Identify unexpected consequences and trade-offs Population centers Macoah

32. Now you know where the risk hotspots are, and which stressors are driving them…how can you prioritize your management?

33. Intensive intervention: limit damaging uses and restore here, esp. if overlap with important benefits Monitor and prepare for climate stressors etc. CONSEQUENCE (endogenous: regeneration, connectivity etc) Develop uses here LOW RISK Low intensity intervention EXPOSURE (exogenous: management, intensity, timing etc)

34. Space matters: reduce incompatibilities by shifting activities in space Restore eelgrass in high risk, high benefit locations Move shellfish tenures away from population centers

37. Back to the big picture

39. Take-away messages • InVEST HRA can: • Screen the risk of current and future stressors. • Prioritize management where it’s most needed and effective. • Identify trade-offs among ecosystem services.

40. Float homes and shellfish tenures in Lemmens Inlet

41. Risk to ecosystems from float homes and oyster farms

42. Future directions • Ability to modify criteria • Functionality to calculate habitat connectivity • Spatial variation in criteria – esp. intensity, management effectiveness • Expand sample data • Other ideas?

43. Acknowledgements Marine Team Greg Guannel, Anne Guerry, Mary Ruckelshaus, Jess Silver, Jodie Toft, Spencer Wood