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WELCOME

WELCOME. TO MBA PROGRAMME. HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESS. WELCOME LECTURE – ONE. CONTENTS HR PLANNING PROCESS INTRODUCTION 2. TIME FRAME TABLE OF MAN POWER FORECAST 3. WORKLOAD ANALYSIS FACTORS 4.TIME SERIES ANALYSIS METHOD 5. ANALYSIS MANPOWER SUPPLY. 1. INTRODUCTION:

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WELCOME

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  1. WELCOME TO MBA PROGRAMME

  2. HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESS WELCOME LECTURE – ONE

  3. CONTENTS • HR PLANNING PROCESS • INTRODUCTION • 2. TIME FRAME TABLE OF MAN POWER FORECAST • 3. WORKLOAD ANALYSIS FACTORS • 4.TIME SERIES ANALYSIS METHOD • 5. ANALYSIS MANPOWER SUPPLY

  4. 1. INTRODUCTION: Forecasting of manpower at the organizational level is necessary keep importance in demand and supply analysis which are available internally or externally.

  5. Determination of time is the most important task of human resource forecast which further related with the following factors:

  6. Demand and supply analysis • Internal availability • External availability • Employment practice

  7. Depending on the timeframe which again depends on 1. the basis of requirements, 2. nature of analysis of above factors keeps on changing.

  8. Thus, it is evident that depending on the timescale, human resource manpower forecast pattern also changes. However, these practices are done by the observation of annual operating result.

  9. Forecasting Methods

  10. HUMAN RESOURCE FORECASTING HR Forecasting attempts to determine the supply and demand for various types of human resources, and to predict areas within the organization where there will be labor shortages or surpluses. There are three major steps to forecasting: Forecasting the demandfor labor Determining labor supply Determining labor surpluses and shortages

  11. 1.FORECASTING HR REQUIREMENTS(DEMAND ANALYSIS) (Trying to predict future staffing needs) Managerial Estimates Sales Projections Simulations Vacancy Analysis (projected turnover) 2. FORECASTING HR AVAILABILITY(SUPPLY ANALYSIS) (Predicting worker flows and availabilities) Succession or Replacement Charts Skills Inventories (use of HRIS) Labor Market Analysis Personnel Ratios

  12. 1. Forecasting the Demand for Labor MANAGERIAL ESTIMATES : Trend Analysis Constructing and applying statistical models that predict labor demand for the next year, given relatively objective statistics from the previous year. Leading Indicators Objective measures that accurately predict future labor demand.

  13. 2.CORRELATIONS/PROJECTIONS SIZE OF HOSPITALNUMBER OF NURSES 200 240 300 260 400 470 500 500 600 620 700 660 800 820 900 860

  14. 3.SIMULATION MODEL/REGRESSION FORECAST TARGET STORES STAFFING FORECAST MODEL Y = 8 + .0011(X1) + .00004(X2) + .02(X3) Y = Number of employees needed to staff the store X1 = Square feet of sales space X2 = Population of metropolitan area X3 = Projected annual disposable income in millions of dollars Y = 8 + .0011(50,000sq ft) + .00004(150,000popul) + .00000002($850 million) Y = 8 + 55 + 6 + 17 Y = 86 employees needed at this store

  15. 4.VACANCY ANALYSISHistoric departures used to project turnover LEVEL# EMPLTURN %Expected VacanciesExpected to Remain TOP MGMT 100 20 % 20 80 MID MGMT 200 24 % 48 152 LOW MGMT 600 22 % 132 468 SKILLED W 600 16% 96 504 ASSY WKRS 200012 %2401760 TOTALS35005362964 AVERAGE TURNOVER PERCENTAGE = 536 / 3500 = .1531

  16. 2.DETERMINING LABOR SUPPLYPredicting Worker Flows and Availabilities Succession or Replacement Charts Who has been groomed/developed and is ready for promotion right NOW? Human Resource Information Systems (HRIS) An employee database that can be searched when vacancies occur. Transition Matrices (Markov Analysis) A chart that lists job categories held in one period and shows the proportion of employees in each of those job categories in a future period. It answers two questions: “Where did people in each job category go?” “Where did people now in each job category come from? Personnel / Yield Ratios How much work will it take to recruit one new accountant?

  17. 1.SUCCESSION PLANNING REPLACEMENT CHART FOR EXECUTIVE POSITIONS POSITION REPLACEMENT CARDS FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL POSITION - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - POSITIONWESTERN DIVISION SALES MANAGER DANIEL BEALER Western Division Sales Mgr Outstanding Ready Now PRESENT PROMOTION POSSIBLE CANDIDATESCURRENT POSITIONPERFORMANCE POTENTIAL SHARON GREEN Western Oregon Sales Manager Outstanding Ready Now GEORGE WEIN. California Sales Manager Outstanding Needs Training HARRY SHOW Idaho/Utah Sales Manager Satisfactory Needs Training TRAVIS WOOD Seattle Area Sales Manager Satisfactory Questionable - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

  18. 2.HUMAN RESOURCE INFORMATION SYSTEMS (HRIS) PERSONAL DATA Age, Gender, Dependents, Marital status, etc EDUCATION & SKILLS Degrees earned, Licenses, Certifications Languages spoken, Specialty skills Ability/knowledge to operate specific machines/equipment/software JOB HISTORY Job Titles held, Location in Company, Time in each position, etc. Performance appraisals, Promotions received, Training & Development MEMBERSHIPS & ACHIEVEMENTS Professional Associations, Recognition and Notable accomplishments PREFERENCES & INTERESTS Career goals, Types of positions sought Geographic preferences CAPACITY FOR GROWTH Potential for advancement, upward mobility and growth in the company

  19. 3.Determining Labor Surplus or Shortage Based on the forecasts for labor demand and supply, the planner can compare the figures to determine whether there will be a shortage or surplus of labor for each job category. Determining expected shortages and surpluses allows the organization to plan how to address these challenges.

  20. 4.PERSONNEL / YIELD RATIOS Past experience has developed these yield ratios for recruiting a Cost Accountant: FOR EVERY 12 APPLICATIONS RECEIVED, ONLY 1 LOOKS PROMISING ENOUGH TO INVITE FOR AN INTERVIEW OF EVERY 5 PERSONS INTERVIEWED, ONLY 1 IS ACTUALLY OFFERED A POSITION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF EVERY 3 JOB OFFERS MADE, ONLY 2 ACCEPT THE POSITION OF EVERY 10 NEW WORKERS WHO BEGIN THE TRAINING PROGRAM, ONLY 9 SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETE THE PROGRAM THUS: 100 APPLICATIONS MUST BE RECEIVED, so that 8.33 JOB INTERVIEWS CAN BE HELD, so that 1.67 JOB OFFERS CAN BE MADE, and 1.11 PEOPLE MUST BE TRAINED, so that we get ONE NEW COST ACCOUNTANT!!!

  21. 2.TENTATIVE TIME FRAME TABLE OF MANPOWER FORECAST

  22. 3. ANALYSIS OF WORKLOAD FACTORS To forecast the manpower requirements at different points of time workload analysis is important.

  23. Analysis of present and future workload depends on the possibility of quantifying the content of work in every area of an organization.

  24. Step -1:CLASSIFICATION OF WORK: Step-2.FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF JOBS : Step-3. CONVERTING THE PROJECTING JOBS IN A MAN HOURS : Step-4;Converting the man hour into manpower requirement

  25. 1. Classification of work

  26. 2. Forecast of jobs in a day for different years

  27. 3. Converting forecast into man hours required per day

  28. 3.Converting man hours into manpower requirement per day This is done considering skill interchangeability of maintenance of staff for the identified job categories with 20% fatigue allowance and 20% leave reserve . Therefore , in a given day of 8 man hours per employee , net available time for attending customer complaints get reduced by 40%per employee, i.e. only 4.8%man hour per day ,per employee is available to attend customer complaints . The manpower forecasting has to be done ,considering 4.8 manpower's per employee per day

  29. 4. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS METHOD Employment data over a time period are used as a basis of manpower forecasting. However, mere projecting the past into future without considering the percentage of changes will increase the forecasting errors resulting under forecasting or over forecasting of the manpower.

  30. For observing the employment records thefollowing elements should be considered. • Trends: Fluctuation in the level of employment over a time period. • 2. Cyclical effects: Change of employment relation to some particular event like economic or policy liberalization of a country.

  31. 3. Seasonality: Seasonal fluctuation occurs more than a one time in a year like in the end events or in any other festive events. 4. Step: This is a sudden change in the employment level due to the economic environment. This may be for increasing market share or procuring new machines.

  32. 5. Random Fluctuation: Which occur randomly in a natural way without following any obvious pattern. • problem • In the agricultural sector this problem are seen often. • This may be due to political or leadership problem.

  33. 5. Moving Average Method: This method is useful to guard against the random fluctuation. Here period selection is more important. If time period are chosen too few the result may show wide variability in the result. Therefore considering more periods we will get better result.

  34. For example a company needs the manpower in the following way

  35. Than, it is necessary to forecast the manpower needs in 2006. We will solve the problem in the following way: (400+450+500+650+700+600)/6 = 550 manpower.

  36. If we make average for 4 years (from 2002) it will shown as follows; (500+650+700+600)/ 4= 612. Thus we need more time periods for accurate forecasting.

  37. For achieving better result we can follow weight assigned to different time periods at the discretion of the analyst. • For 400, 450 and 500 we consider weight 1, • for 600 weight 2 • for 650 weight 3, and • for 700 weight 4.

  38. Thus the average would be 1(400)+1(450)+1(500)+2(600)+ 3(650)+4 (700)+/ ∑ w i.e. 12 = 400+450+500+1200+1950+2800=7300/12= 608 Thus there is a substantial difference in forecasting the demand in this system from those in before.

  39. 6. Exponential smoothing: In moving the average method a wide range of previous data is necessary to analyze. We can avoid such method by adapting Exponential smoothing method. This method smoothen random errors by giving exponentially decreasing weights in historical data.

  40. This weight factor is indicated by alpha (ά) which is a smoothing constant, a non linear decimal value which lies between 0 and 1.

  41. The formula for exponential value is Fm= Ft+ ά(At-1 – F t-1) Where Fm= Forecasted Manpower ά= Smoothing Constant F t-1 = Forecasted demand for the previous period A t-1 = Actual manpower required for the previous period

  42. Assume that the forecasted requirement of a company for previous was 500 and the actual requirement was 480.

  43. Considering alpha value a 0.4 which company feels will give good result. Compute the manpower requirement for the current period.

  44. Here ά= 0.4 Ft-1= 500 At-1= 480 Fm= ? Thus Fm= 500+0.4(-20) = 500-8 = 492.

  45. Assignment : 1.Assume that the forecasted requirement of a company for previous was 800 and the actual requirement was 750. Consider alpha value a 0.5 which company feels will give good result. Compute the manpower requirement for the current period.

  46. 2. Assume that the forecasted requirement of a company for previous was 1200 and the actual requirement was 1350. Consider alpha value a 0.6 which company feels will give good result. Compute the manpower requirement for the current period.

  47. Qualitative models for better managerial judgment 1.THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE Leader identifies judgment issues and develops questionnaire. Prospective participants are identified and asked to cooperate. Leaders send questionnaire to willing participants, who record their judgments and recommendations and return the questionnaire. Leaders compiles summaries and reproduces participants’ responses. Leader sends the compiled list of judgment to all participants. Participants comment on each other’s ideas and propose a final judgment. Leader looks for consensus Leader accepts consensus judgment as group’s choice.

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