2013 Governor’s Housing Conference

1. 2013 Governor’s Housing Conference The Future of Homeownership Making Homeownership Affordability September 27, 2013 Daniel Whitehurst of Clark Turner Homes

2. Introduction Clark Turner Homes (www.clarkturner.com) Small-Mid sized builder headquartered in Harford County Townhomes to Large Luxury Customs Land Developers General Contractor Daniel Whitehurst President of Clark Turner Companies Mount St Mary’s University – Business Johns Hopkins University – Masters in Real Estate President of HBAM – Harford and Cecil County

3. Outline I’ve been asked to talk about: • The Housing Recovery • Who are the buyers today • What do buyers want today • My take on the housing outlook

4. The Recovery… Nationally • Jobs… Jobs… Jobs… • Mortgage Interest Rates • Realization of values • Frugal Fatigue • Stock Market

5. % of Job Losses during Recession RECOVERY

6. # of New Home Sales RECOVERY

7. Leading Indicator: Auto Sales RECOVERY

8. RECOVERY

10. Who are the buyers? • Who is left to buy? • Move Up Buyers ?

11. Move ups: Functionally Obsolete

12. Sellers 90% Mortgage Negative Equity or “Underwater” Proceeds form Sale available to payoff mortgage.

13. Negative Equity or “Underwater” – much better after 6 years of payments

14. Who are the buyers? • Who is left to buy? • Move Up Buyers – Many are stuck • Empty Nesters

15. Rate Locked and Anchored Why make the move?

16. Who are the buyers? • Who is left to buy? • Move Up Buyers – Many are stuck • Empty Nesters – Interest Rate Anchor • Own vs. Rent -

17. Affordability: Home Price Decline in Home Value: 22.5%

18. Affordability: Payment Decline in Home Payment: 39.7%

20. Own vs. Rent New Local Apartment Complex $600.00!! Payment: Average 3 Bedroom Townhome Harford County

21. New Apts = Tough Competition Monroe Street Apartments - A Bozzuto Project

22. Who are the buyers? • Who is left to buy? • Move Up Buyers – Many are stuck • Empty Nesters – Interest Rate Anchor • Own vs. Rent – Very competitive • Relocated Workers ? • First Time Buyers ?

23. Who are the first time buyers? • Gen y “Millennials” • Age today: 14-32 • In 5 Years: 19-37

24. A 36 Year old Gen Y was 29 years old in 2006 when market was hot. They are prime candidates to be underwater on their homes. Baby Boomers GEN X GEN Y GEN Z

25. Buyers Considerations

26. Finance • Considerations: • Monthly Payments (Price and Interest Rate) • Property Taxes • Down payment Requirement

27. Case Schiller Home Price Index 3% Growth TODAY

28. Median Income & Current Interest Rate Index $67,974 3.41% TODAY $39,939 6.83%

29. Product Single Family or Townhome Large lot or small lot

30. Product Size vs. quality

31. Hot Trend: Living Triangle

32. Hot Trend: Large Islands

33. Hot Trend:Drop Zones Eliminating the Living Room

34. Hot Trend: Outdoor Living

35. Hot Trend: Exposed Wood Beams

36. Hot Trend: Large Showers Eliminating the Tub

37. Location & Community • Urban or Suburban • Location vs Dream House • Schools • Amenities (Walking Trails, Pools, Fitness, etc) • Wine Clubs • Overall Quality of Life

38. The uncertain recovery • Interest Rates • Student Loans

39. % of Households with Student Debt

40. Total Student Debt

41. The uncertain recovery • Interest Rates • Student Loans • New Const. Regulation • Sequestration • Mortgage Tax Deduction

42. Any Questions? To end with positive news… • New Car Sales UP! • Stock Market UP! • Home Pricing UP! (slowly) • Unemployment Rate DOWN!