UNS/TEP and UAScience

1. UNS/TEP and UAScience Wednesday 27th March, 2013 Bryant Bannister Tree Ring BuildingUniversity of Arizona Confidential

2. Joaquin Ruiz Welcome! • Objective of Today’s Meeting – Joaquin Ruiz • Introductions • College of Science – Joaquin Ruiz • UNS/TEP and UAScience Partnership • Tech Launch Arizona – Paul Eynott • The Office of Technology Transfer • Leveraging UAScience through Innovative Approaches • Proof-of-Concept Program – Alexander Cronin • Discussion and Next Steps - All Confidential

3. Joaquin Ruiz < INTRODUCTIONS > 3 Confidential

4. Paul Eynott < Tech Launch AZ > 3 Confidential

5. Paul Eynott Tech Launch Arizona David Allen Executive Director Commercialization, Networks & Operations Technology Licensing University Research Parks Corporate & Business Relations Sherry Hoskinson Director Doug Hockstad Director Bruce Wright Associate VP Nancy Smith Director Paul Eynott Confidential

6. Paul Eynott “One-Stop-Shop” Support, Integrate & Coordinate Internal Activities Simplify Access to UA Resources – “Contact Points”  Leverage & Expand Existing Relationships Expand the Engagement around Research Pipeline Establish Priority Company Targets Confidential

7. Paul Eynott Leveraging UAScience- Proof-of-Concept Programs - Confidential

8. Paul Eynott Program Size Continuum • Small programs ($10K to $50K grant) • Work conducted in inventor’s lab • Less emphasis on platform IP, more on licensability • Resources limit larger grants • Return captured in university IP policy allocations • Gift, government or internal tech transfer proceeds • Intermediate programs ($50K to $250K) • Characteristics are a mix of small and large programs • Often involvement from state governments and foundations • Large programs ($250K +  investment) • Approaching VC like model - ROI maximization driver Confidential

9. < TLA’s First PoC > Confidential

10. Alexander Cronin, Mike Leutholdand Eric Betterton < Solar Power Forecasts > Forecasting Intermittency due to Clouds for MW-Scale Photovoltaic Generating Facilities 3 Confidential

11. Alexander Cronin, Mike Leutholdand Eric Betterton Numerical Weather Prediction StatusDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences • Operational solar and wind power forecasts produced, daily, for 220 MW of Tucson basin solar resources and the Macho Springs 50 MW wind farm in New Mexico • Both graphical and text based “outputs” are available on the Atmospheric Sciences web site • A GUI/Web Page is being designed to display all renewable forecast and weather information • In partnership with The Institute for the Environment • Hiring process for a Post-Doc underway Confidential

12. Alexander Cronin, Mike Leutholdand Eric Betterton Solar Irradiance Graphical Forecast Confidential

13. Alexander Cronin, Mike Leutholdand Eric Betterton Solar Irradiance and Power Text Forecast • Based on 70 MW nameplate fixed tilt PV and 150 MW nameplate single axis tracker PV (around Tucson area) • Includes temperature effect on PV efficiency based on the numerical model temperature Confidential

14. Alexander Cronin, Mike Leutholdand Eric Betterton Pending Work: 2013-2014 • Improve forecasts based on a simple ensemble approach-blend of multiple forecasts • Develop a “confidence level” to the forecast • Integrate forecasts into TEP’s EMS and the UAScience GUI • Verify model forecast-currently impossible due to lack of solar/wind power production data Confidential

15. Alexander Cronin, Mike Leutholdand Eric Betterton The Problem: • PV output fluctuates (80% dropouts in 5 sec) • TEP will have 250 MW of PV by 2013 • TEP needs forecasts to ramp up generators • No forecasts are good enough yet Our Solutions: • Advanced Numerical Weather Model • Irradiance Network and Velocity Model Confidential

16. The Problem: Alexander Cronin, Mike Leutholdand Eric Betterton AC Power (kW) Aug 9 Aug 10 time - ACC Regulations require Big Solar - Now Utility Operators need Forecasts Confidential

17. Our Solution #1 Alexander Cronin, Mike Leutholdand Eric Betterton Numerical Weather Model Forecast Good for: 2-hr averages 40 hours in advance Our Solution #2 100 Rooftops + Wind Forecast Good for: 10 minute detail 1-2 hours in advance Confidential

18. Alexander Cronin, Mike Leutholdand Eric Betterton Commercialization Opportunity Strategy 1: Utility System Operators want an operational forecast product. e.g. TEP, APS Strategy 2: PV vendors can sell more if they smooth output based on forecasts. e.g. SOLON Corp. Strategy 3: Industry smart-grids need forecasting. e.g. Military, IBM Market Diver: Many (green) states have aggressive Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) Growth rate of PV in USA = 71% in 2012 (SEIA.org) PV prices are falling. How can we handle so much PV? Confidential

19. Alexander Cronin, Mike Leutholdand Eric Betterton This Project Plan Task 1: Establish irradiance data feeds in real-time Use TEP properties, UA sensors, staff, & algorithm. Task 2: Deploy our operational forecast product online Develop utilization strategy with TEP Task 3: Use this grant to establish IP, hybrid strategies, Key partnerships, commercializationplan Confidential

20. Our Solutions: Alexander Cronin and Eric Betterton Our Forecasts based on Data from 100 rooftops Confidential

21. The Problem: AC Power (kW) Aug 9 Aug 10 time ACC Regulations require Big Solar. Now Utility Operators need Forecasts.

22. Our Solution #1 Numerical Weather Model Forecast Good for: 2-hr averages 40 hours in advance Our Solution #2 100 Rooftops + Wind Forecast Good for: 10 minute detail 1-2 hours in advance

24. 34 25 Distribution of ~280 MW 70 MW DG 6.4 5 12 5 23 50 10 35

26. Paul Eynott < Commercialization > 3 Confidential

27. Paul Eynott Confidential

28. Confidential

29. < Next Steps > Confidential

30. Paul Eynott < Discussion > Confidential

31. Joaquin Ruiz Renewable Energy Standards & Tariff • The REST requirement is a % of TEP’s retail load • Increases 0.5 % annually through 2015 • Then increases 1.0% annually until target of 15% reached • 30% of each year’s number must be from customer-sited distributed resources • Split equally between residential & non-residential • For 2013, the requirement is 4.0%, which is approximately 375,000,000 kWh or the equivalent annual consumption of almost 34,000 homes Confidential

32. UAScience: Renewable Energy Solar Geothermal Wind Bioenergy Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Water Joaquin Ruiz Confidential