Louisiana’s 2012 Coastal Master Plan

1. Louisiana’s 2012 Coastal Master Plan Governor’s Advisory Commission on Coastal Protection, Restoration and Conservation Greater Lafourche Port Commission Administrative Offices October 5, 2011

2. Our Coastal Crisis • Current and future protection and restoration projects should progress with the same sense of urgency and compressed timelines as was seen in the Greater New Orleans HSDRRS. • Recommend adoption of the same timelines and level of detail used on the “LCA 6” for all feasibility studies. • Acknowledge that Coastal Louisiana is in a catastrophic state of system collapse and that requiring individual projects to be sustainable in perpetuity is an untenable policy. Designates Historic Land Loss Historic and Projected Land Change (1932 -2050)

3. Our Coastal Crisis • 4 Major Hurricanes • in 5 Years • Nation’s Largest Oil Spill • 2011 High Water Event

4. Ecosystem Uncertainties and Scenarios • The modeling teams identified 9 key system uncertainties • Sea Level Rise • Subsidence • Storm Intensity • Storm Frequency • River Discharge / Sediment Load • River Nutrient Concentration • Rainfall • Evapotranspiration • Marsh Collapse Threshold • Range for each uncertainty represents plausible increases /decreases • Selected levels for each ecosystem uncertainty

5. Ecosystem Uncertainties and Scenarios • MPDT developed scenario projections to evaluate project effects in a future landscape: • Intermediate Projections (Scenario B) • Worsening Projections (Scenario C) • Represent values within the uncertainty ranges • The scenarios don’t necessarily cover the entire range of possible outcomes, • Designed to reflect significantly different, but reasonably-likely conditions to use when developing and evaluating alternatives. • Uncertainty data updated at 5 year Master Plan intervals

6. Ecosystem Uncertainties Ranges

7. Sea Level Rise – Gulf of Mexico Rationale Source: Literature and USACE guidance

8. Sea Level Rise - Gulf of Mexico Values 0.3m 0.5m

9. Subsidence Predictions

10. Land Area Change in Coastal Louisiana(1932 to 2010)

11. Future Without Action PRELIMINARY Draft Predicted Land Loss Predicted Land Gain Scenario B Predicted Land-Water Change from 2010-2060

12. Future Without Action PRELIMINARY Draft Predicted Land Loss Predicted Land Gain Scenario C Predicted Land-Water Change from 2010-2060

13. Future Without Action Preliminary Draft Predicted Land Change from 2010-2060

14. Why haven’t we been more effective? • Too small to address this large-scale problem • Focused on single projects instead of interconnected ecosystem and communities • Allowed conflicts to lead to compromises that don’t address the needs • Did not fully understand the tradeoffs Designates Historic Land Loss Historic and Projected Land Change (1932 -2050)

15. An Opportunity… Potential Future Funding • Natural Resources Damage Assessment credits from Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill • Clean Water Act penalties from spill • GOMESA funding • Credits from restoration activities (carbon sequestration, nutrient uptake, etc.) Current estimates show potential available funding in the range of $20 to $50 billion over the next 50 years Total implementation costs of all projects under analysis is approximately $250 billion

16. Answering Key Questions • Which investments should be made and when? • What financial resources are required? • What outcomes can be achieved through this plan? • How could the plan evolve overtime to be robust to uncertain future conditions?

17. Answering Key Questions These questions are difficult to answer for several reasons: • Large set of possible projects • Hundreds of individual projects could be assembled to create thousands to millions of different project alternatives • Interactions among projects can be significant • Significant uncertainty about future conditions and the effects of projects • Estimating outcomes requires sophisticated models • Range of views on desired outcomes • Different values for diverse outcomes

18. The 2012 Coastal Master Plan will pave the way for action. It will be the first of Louisiana’s coastal plans to outline a series of specific projects for addressing land loss and reducing flood risks.

19. Project Team & Collaborative Effort

20. Who Is Involved? Louisiana’s 2012 Coastal Master Plan

21. Technical Advisory Committee Members Project-Effects Models • Steve Ashby, USACE Eng. Res. Dev. Center • John Callaway, University of San Francisco • Fred Sklar, South Florida Water Mgmt. District • Si Simenstad, University of Washington Prioritization Tool TAC • John Boland, John Hopkins • Ben Hobbs, John Hopkins • Len Shabman, Virginia Tech Cultural Heritage TAC • Don Davis, Louisiana State University • Carl Brasseaux, University of Louisiana Lafayette • Maida Owens, LA Dept. of Cultural, Recreation, Tourism

22. National Science and Engineering Board -Independent Technical Review Ecosystem Science / Coastal Ecology • William Dennison, University of Maryland • Edward Houde, University of Maryland • Katherine Ewell, University of Florida Engineering • Robert Dalrymple, Johns Hopkins University • JosDijkman, Deltares Geosciences • Charles Groat, University of Texas at Austin Social Science and Risk • Greg Baecher, University of Maryland • Philip Berke, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill Climate Change • Virginia Burkett, U.S. Geological Survey Environmental/Natural Resource Economics • Edward Barbier, University of Wyoming

23. Master Plan Team: Predictive Models Workgroups

24. Framework Development Team-Over 30 Federal, State, NGO, Academic, Community, and Industry Organizations

25. Current Status and Next Steps • Recently completed 10 regional community meetings across the State • Attended by over 550 citizens and 40 public officials • Currently conducting technical analysis • DRAFT Master Plan will be released for public review in January 2012 • Public Meetings will be held in late January 2012 to receive public input on the draft plan • Submit Final Plan to the Legislature in March 2012

26. Major Themes from Community Meetings • We’re living an emergency—today. • Use technical tools wisely. • Tell us what you are doing, and let us help. • Don’t write off my community ahead of time. • Let us know what to expect. • Help communities faced with big transitions.

27. Ongoing Outreach • 34 Meetings with State Legislators and Parish Presidents • Briefings for Parish Presidents, Public Works Directors and Levee District Officials • Coastal Zone Quarterly Briefings • Fisheries, Oil and Gas, and Navigation Focus Group Meetings • Updates to Levee Boards/Districts • Requested Individual or Group Briefings: • Global Green, Delta Discussion Group, Plaquemines Parish, Holy Cross Neighborhood Association, United Houma Nation, Sassafras, Sea Grant and Soil and Water Conservation Districts • Outreach continues to Rotary Clubs, Chambers of Commerce and Business, Professional Organizations, and Coastal Advocacy Organizations

28. Important Dates 2011 Sept – Dec Continue Outreach Efforts Available to Speak to Citizen Groups upon Request Jan Draft Coastal Master Plan Released Jan 23 Public Meeting in New Orleans Jan 24 Public Meeting in Houma Jan 25 Public Meeting in Lake Charles Jan – Feb Stakeholder Engagement and Feedback March/April Submit Final Plan to LA Legislature 2012 Once approved by the Louisiana Legislature, implementation of this plan will begin.

29. For more information:EmailMasterPlan@la.gov Visitcoastalmasterplan.la.gov