Future of the Practice of Law

1. Future of the Practice of Law Presented by Charles F. Robinson March 18, 2003 www.ChalieRobinsonFuturist.com www.Charlie-Robinson.com

2. Presentation Materials http://CharlieRobinsonFuturist.com/

3. Must Develop a Sense of Urgency

4. Tom Peters predicts • Ninety per cent white-collar jobs will disappear in the next ten years. • What color collars do lawyers wear? • Is there an exception for lawyers?

6. Tom Peters “We are in the midst of the most profound change since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, over two centuries ago . . . Perhaps the most profound change since the Chinese more or less invented hierarchy thousands of years ago.” • Circle of Innovation, 1997

7. Dee Hock “We are at that very point in time when a 400 year-old age is dying and another is struggling to be born- a shifting of culture, science, society, and institutions enormously greater than the world has ever experienced.

8. Too many are struggling to embrace the disciplines of the industrial age in a new economic/professional order.

9. Never in history has incumbency been worth less. Examples include:

10. Our GuildLegal Profession Operated as a guild in US for many years- • Monopoly on legal services- • We could define legal services as we wanted • Death of the Guilds- Professions, States, and the Advance of Capitalism 1930 To the Present Elliott A. Krause 1996

11. Guild Characteristics • Bar determined • Who could be a member • Standards for service quality • Pricing (minimum fee schedules) • Quantity of service to be performed

12. Guild Status Decline • Goldfarb 1975 • End of pricing control • Bates 1977 • Advertising allows for competition • Guild status gone since 1975 but many in denial in 2003

13. The real threat is irrelevance.

14. NH BAR OUTREACH 2000 Can the legal profession survive the “dot.comet”?

15. Results of a poll conducted by Franklin Pierce Law Center graduates of their clients: • Lawyers charge excessively and add significantly to the cost of a legal need. • Lawyers add significantly to the time it takes to satisfy a legal need. • Lawyers complicate already-complicated problems.

16. Law School Client Survey cont • Lawyers don't take time to learn enough about a client's legal need, and then do not adequately address the need. When they address the need, they are paternalistic and arrogant. • Lawyers don't know when to step aside. • Lawyers' expertise in litigation and advocacy impedes problem solving.

17. Chief Justice Major Harding 2/5/2000 • Dispute resolution as we know it may be a dinosaur • Must look at reforming the jury system • The big issue before the court system is relevance

18. Too many are struggling to embrace the disciplines of the industrial age in a new economic/professional order.

19. Less than two years ago, Major Insurance Company CEO said, “Insurance is too complex. I think people will always need agents.” “What Planet was that guy living on?” Gary Hamel

20. Quebec Bar Study Three Scenarios for the Future of the Profession

21. Ignore the changes in the world and do business as usual Medical profession view 10 years ago Abdicated right to choose their future Mural graphic dyslexia Try to compete ethically in spite of Rules 5.7, 5.4, 1.7, 1.8 Watch our market disappear for Law-Related Services Courtroom only exclusive domain for lawyers Future Scenario 1- Status Quo

22. Manage supply of services Limit new admittees to Bar Aggressively pursue UPL Fight MDP/Ancillary Business Carefully and extensively define law practice Banish all visionaries Bright line test for Law Practice Maginot? Future Scenario 2- Albania

23. Future Scenario 3- Singapore • Become change-oriented • Proactive attitude • Embrace technology • New pricing for services • Determine market needs

24. Wired Magazine (January, 1998) Guardians of the old order are trying their best to hold back change and preserve their power.

26. Why Do Great Enterprises Fail? • Inability to Escape the Past • Inability to Create the Future Hamel and Prahalad, Competing for the Future

27. Nicholas NegroponteIncrementalism is Innovation’s Worst Enemy

28. “What Are the Forces Already at Work in Our Profession That Have the Potential to Profoundly Transform Our Profession’s Structure?” • Each Force a “Discontinuity” • Examine Implications for Each Discontinuous Force

29. Nonlawyer competition Diminished perceived value in attorney services Technology displacement Lawyer supply exceeds demand Discontinuity- Precedent has no value Disintermediation- Out with the middle person Current Forces Impacting the Profession

30. Family Law >70% Pro Se Rules of Civil Procedure gone Real Estate Realtors Internet Tax and Estate Planning Wills on-line IRS electronic tax filing Century Business/American Express House Counsel Trade Association legal advice PI Defense Insurance companies Litigation Sport for the wealthy Contingent Contingent fees Areas of Practice

31. Repeal Estate Tax • Jonathon Blattmachr says good news/bad news • Good news- Fresh start basis • Full employment for estate planners • Bad News- Time will change basis problem • Canada Experience over 29 years • 90% less work

32. Technology • Internet Available to Everyone • Wills, Tax Return Prep On-line • Like Printing Press to Church/Temple • Literacy Brings New Relationships

33. Commodity Traditional Latent The Future of Law: Facing the Challenges of Information Technology Richard Susskind • Legal Profession Will Change Beyond Recognition • Three Types of Legal Service • Traditional • Commoditized • Latent

34. Susskind’s Key Questions • Likely developments in IT over next 10 years • Possibilities for law practice in light of IT changes • Future for lawyers and what part is the world wide web likely to play

35. Figure 1.1 The Grid External Technology Information Knowledge Internal Richard Susskind 2000

36. Figure 1.3 The Legal Grid Client client relationship systems online legal services Technology Information Knowledge back-office technology internal knowledge systems Internal Richard Susskind 2000

37. Figure 1.4 Examples of systems Client online financial reporting status reporting deal-rooms document archives electronic mail 2nd generation web sites virtual lawyers online legal guidance systems expert systems Technology Information Knowledge document management practice management human resource management marketing databases hardware networks operating systems know-how databases template libraries precedent libraries Intranet services Internal Richard Susskind 2000 C

38. Figure 1.5 Business impact Client new service opportunities new business models turning knowledge into value new, improved ways of delivering traditional service Technology Information Knowledge keeping basic systems running risk management providing robust infrastructure efficiency productivity leveraging knowledge Internal Richard Susskind 2000 C

39. Why Did Market Leading, Well-Managed Firms Fail? • Good Management • Listening to the customer • Invested aggressively in new technology • Studied market trends • Allocated capital to innovations promising best returns • Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma

40. Sustaining vs. Disruptive Technologies • Sustaining technologies improve performance of established products or services • Disruptive technologies result in worse near term performance • Precipitate firm failures • Valued by new and fringe clients • Usually cheaper, simpler, smaller,easier to use

41. Develop a Strategic Architecture • Which new benefits (functionalities) will we offer clients over next 10 years? • What new competencies will we need to create those benefits? • How must we reconfigure the client interface to provide most effective client access? • Competing for the future

42. Internet The Cobb Value Curve Competitive Positioning HIGH NUCLEAR EVENT PRICE INSENSITIVE HIRED FOR EXPERIENCE RELATIVE VALUE ADDED BRAND NAME SERVICES PRICE COMMODITY SENSITIVE SERVICES LOW 40% 0% 20% 100% VOLUME OF WORK AVAILABLE

43. Main Idea Implications Wheel

44. Ethical code presumes a paternalistic attorney-client relationship

45. Lawyer's traditional paternalistic relationship to clients • Producer-controlled relationship • I am the learned one and you should listen to me. • Drives relationships • Advertising police • MDP issues

46. The Big Question Will the Legal Profession Reinvent Itself In Order to Provide Highly Valued Twenty-First Century Services to Twenty-First Century Clients?

47. Our Paradigm • Our most deeply held, unconscious set of assumptions and values. • The things we take for granted. • That which determines our expectations, frames the questions we ask, and structures our approach to what we do.

48. “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken OlsonPresident, Chairman and Founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

49. “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” Western Union internal memo, 1876.

50. “I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s falling on his face and not Gary Cooper.” Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in “Gone With the Wind”