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Complex Societal Issues

Complex Societal Issues. Dr. Dorien DeTombe (MSc. Ph.D.) International Research Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam The Netherlands, Europe T : +31 20 6927526 E : detombe@complexitycourse.org W : www. complexitycourse.org. Global Safety .

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Complex Societal Issues

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  1. Complex Societal Issues Dr. Dorien DeTombe (MSc. Ph.D.) International Research Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB Amsterdam The Netherlands, Europe T : +31 20 6927526 E : detombe@complexitycourse.org W : www. complexitycourse.org Global Safety

  2. outline global safety aspects of complex societal problems in general handling complex societal problems: the methodology COMPRAM: dealing with complexity

  3. global safety threatened by causes natural threats: global : virus (birds) flu HIV/AIDS local : hurricanes floodavalanches earthquakes tsunami man made threats: global : terrorism climate change internet / stock exchange CO2 local : war traffic congestion pollution agricultural industry (BSE) nucleair power plant

  4. natural threats global : virus (birds) flu HIV/AIDS

  5. human disease provoked by animals 2003 natural threats: global Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)

  6. natural threats: global : virus HIV/AIDS

  7. local natural disasters hurricanes flood avalanches earthquakes tsunami virus fowl plaque

  8. natural threats: localchicken farms fowl plague virus

  9. local natural disaster hurricane Katrina New Orleans USA 2005

  10. local natural disaster flood

  11. floods in The Netherlands: below sea level and rivers

  12. flood the Netherlands Europe 16th century

  13. flood Germany, Europe, 1995

  14. flood inThe Netherlands Europe

  15. local natural disaster avalanches avalanches in tourists areas

  16. local natural disaster earthquake

  17. local natural disaster earthquake BAM Iran 2003

  18. local natural disaster tsunami

  19. local natural disaster tsunami

  20. local natural disaster tsunami December 2004

  21. man made threats global: terrorism climate change CO2 internet stock exchange

  22. man made threats: global: terrorism 9/11/2001 attack world trade center New York USA

  23. man made threats: global: terrorismMadrid 03/11 2004

  24. man made threats: global: stock exchange

  25. CO2 Emission ReductionsKyoto Protocol man made threats: global

  26. man made threats local: war traffic congestion pollution agricultural industry (BSE) nucleair power plants

  27. man made threats: local war

  28. man made threats: local societal disruption

  29. man made threats: local traffic congestion

  30. man made threats: localpollution

  31. man made threats: local firework factory explosion in center of town Twente, The Netherlands, May 2000

  32. man made threats: local agricultural industry foot and mouth disease

  33. man made threats: local nucleair power plants

  34. these threats are complex societal problems

  35. complex societal problem differs much from each other however can be analyzed, handled and evaluated in the same way along the lines of the methodology of societal complexity

  36. Definition of Complex Societal Problems DeTombe 2005 (1) a complex societal problem is a real life problem, which has a large however often different impact on different groups in the society. The problem has often an impact on all the levels of the society, on micro, meso and macro level. Often it seems that the problem suddenly ‘pops-up’. The problem is dynamic, it changes during its development. The future development of the problem is uncertain. It is often difficult to become aware of the problem and difficult to put it on the political agenda. It is difficult to get grip on the problem and to handle the problem. Only changes are possible, no ‘solutions’.

  37. Definition of Complex Societal Problems DeTombe 2005 (2) The problem has a knowledge, a power and an emotional component. The problem consist of many phenomena which are complicated intertwined with each other. Often there is a lack of knowledge, the data are incomplete, uncertain or in contradiction with each other. The problem is interdisciplinary and it takes theories from different fields to explain what is happening. There are many parties involved. Each party has a different view on the problem, a different definition of the problem, and has different goal and desires. The parties often have different ‘solutions’ for the problem. The different parties involved have different power over the problem. The problem often provokes much emotion in society.

  38. recognized by the OECD for handling societal complexity JULY 2006

  39. handling complex societal problems: the methodology COMPRAM: dealing with complexity multi disciplines many actors analyzing the situation making decisions evaluation

  40. phases of the problem handling process from awareness to evaluation interventions defining the problem awareness mental idea agendateam hypotheses conc.model __1.1__ __1.2__ __1.3___1.4___ _1.5__ __1.6__ changing the problem emp. model handling space scenario intervention implementation evaluation _2.1___ _2.2___ _2.3___ __2.4__ __2.5__ __2.6__

  41. COMPRAM methodology:======== and phases of the problem handling process defining the problem awareness mental idea agendateam hypotheses conc.model __1.1__ __1.2__ __1.3___1.4___ _1.5__ __1.6__ =================== changing the problem emp. model handling space scenario intervention implementation evaluation _2.1___ _2.2___ _2.3___ __2.4__ __2.5__ __2.6__ ========================================

  42. The first sub-cycle of the problem handling process: • defining the problem • phase 1.1 aware forming a (vague) mental idea • phase 1.2 hearing, thinking, • reading, talking and asking questions • phase 1.3 agenda and deciding to handle the problem • phase 1.4 team and analyze the problem • phase 1.5 gathering data, exchange knowledge • and forming hypotheses • phase 1.6 formulating the conceptual model

  43. The second sub-cycle: changing the problem phase 2.1 constructing the empirical model and the desired goal phase 2.2 defining the handling space phase 2.3 constructing and evaluating scenarios phase 2.4 suggesting interventions phase 2.5 implementing interventions phase 2.6 evaluating interventions

  44. COMPRAM methodology: steps step1 team of experts model the issue knowlegde step 2 actors model the issue power step 3 experts + actors find interventions step 4 societal reactions emotion step 5 interventions implemented step 6 interventions evaluated

  45. Complex problem handling methodology DeTombe

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