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Office of Financial Management Washington State March 30, 2005

Dealing With A Future Which Is in Perpetual Construction---Washington State Provisional Projection by Age, Sex And Race/Ethnicity: 2000-2030. Office of Financial Management Washington State March 30, 2005. Introduction. Philosophy: Maximize knowledge and minimize subjective bias

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Office of Financial Management Washington State March 30, 2005

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  1. Dealing With A Future Which Is in Perpetual Construction---Washington State Provisional Projection by Age, Sex And Race/Ethnicity: 2000-2030 Office of Financial Management Washington State March 30, 2005

  2. Introduction • Philosophy: Maximize knowledge and minimize subjective bias • Projection categories: OMB new race/ethnicity categories, gender, five year age groups, and single year between 15-19. • Method: cohort component method with all the components being projected separately • Base year data: NCHS 2000 estimates • Control totals: each component is controlled to the state total

  3. Main Steps for Projection Procedure for State Population by Age, Gender and Race/Ethnicity Major Data Input: Births 95-2000 Deaths 95-2000 Migration 95-2000 Fertility assumptions Mortality assumptions Migration assumptions Calculate ASFR, TFR Calculate Mortality rates Calculate migration rates Projecting births, deaths and migration: 2000-2030 Control projected births, deaths and migration to state totals, then add all the components into the master file Project Non Hispanic And Hispanic population Project 15-19 single year Gender, Non Hispanic/ Hispanic Project multiracial category Produce pyramid for Evaluation; make adjustment if necessary Final report

  4. Adjust Black Population in NCHS 2000 Estimates

  5. Fertility Assumptions: Before and Current • Prior to the current projection: • Assume 95-2000 ASFR for 2000-05 period • Use 2000-05 Women 15-49 and 0-4 year old to recalculate ASFR to be used for 2005-10 period, and so on. • Then control to state projected total births for the period. • Concerns: Only the fertility assumptions for the total women at child bearing age are reflected. We assume that the fertility pattern for each one of the minority groups is likely to change in the future. Such variance in different race groups are not reflected in the method.

  6. Current Fertility Assumptions • The ASFR for 2000 is calculated with the existing method; • Child-women ratio is the second method; • Census Bureau's national fertility projection has been incorporated to develop adjustment factors. • United Nations fertility data for Southeast Asian and Mexico are used to assess the fertility rates for Hispanics and API. • Assimilation theory is adopted to bring down the high fertility rate of Hispanic origin population.

  7. TFR by Race/Ethnicity

  8. Migration: Assumptions and Methods • Total migration by race: • Migration is controlled to the state total projected migration, so the crucial issue is to get the racial distribution right • 1990-2000 residual migration is calculated with standard survival rate method. • Age and gender distribution: • The 1995-2000 in and out migration are used to get base for international migration as well as the age and gender distribution among each race. • School enrolment (grade 2-7t vs. 3-8t+1) between 1981-2003 by race is used as an indicator for future migration change.

  9. Change of School Enrolment Grade 2-7t vs. 3-8t+1

  10. Change of School Enrolment Grade 2-7t vs. 3-8t+1

  11. Migration: Assumptions and Methods • For the long term: domestic and international migrations are projected separately; immigration assumptions are built based on Bureau’s 1999 immigration framework. Washington State foreign born, and 1980-2000 immigration information from INS are also used as indicators. • Domestic migration is derived as residual of total and international migration. Age, sex and race distribution shall be based on 95-2000 migration from census 2000. • Total migration is controlled to the state total migration projection.

  12. Mortality Assumption • Washington mortality by race follows the national trend. NCHS 2000 life tables for white, black and other race are used for 2000-2010. • After 2010, the gain in life expectancy will gradually slow down. No sufficient information to distinguish the change by racial groups, the trend for total population by gender is adopted. • Robert Schoen Basic Life Table method is used to calculate life expectancy of Hispanic origin population.

  13. Extract the Multiracial Population • Difference between 2000 MR and adjusted NCHS 2000 estimate is controlled to the Multiracial population in 2000 MR file. • Project 0-4 year old multiracial based on 1990 and 2000 under one year old in multiracial families. • Add the projected 0-4 to each projection period and forward surviving the rest of the age groups. • Raking to the state level total multiracial population which is projected separately.

  14. Separate the Hispanic and Non Hispanic • Use projected Hispanic births as base • Use CWR to estimate 0-4 year old migrants by race/ethnicity, and percent of total migration is calculated to project future migration of the age cohort . • Applied survival rate to (1+2) =projected 0-4 Hispanic • Survive Hispanic by age and gender to the next projection period and add (3) for 0-4 year old. • Subtract Hispanic from total to get Non Hispanic

  15. Data and documentation can be found at the following URL: http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/race/provisional_projections.htm

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