Land Use Change in Amazonia: Institutional analysis and modeling at multiple temporal and spatial scales

1. FAPESP Climate Change Program Workshop 2011 Land Use Change in Amazonia: Institutional analysis and modeling at multiple temporal and spatial scales Gilberto Câmara, Ana Aguiar, Roberto Araújo, Patrícia Pinho, Luciano Dutra, Corina Freitas, Sidnei Sant’Anna, Leila Fonseca, Isabel Escada, Silvana Amaral, Pedro Andrade-Neto (Earth System Science Centre, INPE)

2. source: Global Land Project Science Plan (IGBP)

3. Nature, 29 July 2010

4. Nature, 29 July 2010 Brazil is the world’s current largest experiment on land change and its effects: will it also happen elsewhere? Today’s questions about Brazil could be tomorrow’s questions for other countries

5. Where will large-scale land change take place? source: The Economist

6. Forests and food production: potential conflicts

7. Impact of land change in Brazil’s emissions

8. “By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation by 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula in Copenhagen COP-15)

9. Market impactofdeforestationreduction in Brazil Avoided def Brazil 2005-2020 EU-15 reduction 2005-2020 20% of 1990 levels 4,9 Gt CO2eq 7,7 Gt CO2eq From 2005 to 2020, avoided deforestation by Brazil would be 2/3 of the total proposed EU-15 cuts

10. What caused the reduction of deforestation in Amazonia? Markets? Credit crunch? Coercion? Institutional arrangments?

11. Policing actions: illegal wood seizure 50% ofoperations in 2% ofthearea

12. Markets have a positive rôle

13. Working hypothesis The Brazilian Amazon has different institutional arrangements that influence the spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation.

14. Tragedy of the Commons? Everybody’s property is nobody’s property (Hardin)

15. Is the tragedy of the commons inevitable? Experiments show that cooperation emerges if virtuous interactions exist source: Novak, Mayand Sigmund (ScientificAmerican, 1995)

16. Common pool resources (Elinor Ostrom)

17. The ultimate common pool resource

18. Governing the commons:institutional arrangments [Ostrom, Science, 2005]

19. Elinor Ostrom on governing the commons “Neither the state nor the market is uniformly successful in enabling individuals to sustain long-term, productive use of natural resource systems.”

20. What are institutional arrangements? Araújo and Aguiar , forthcoming Agreements between private and public organizations about rules of use of common pool resources.

21. Institutional analysis in Amazonia Identifydifferentagentsandtry to modeltheiractions Land changepatterns Field work Land changemodels Urban networks

22. Amazonia is a mosaic of land units Terras Indígenas UC Proteção Integral PA (Projeto de Assentamento) PAE (Proj. Assentamento Agro-extrativista) PDS (Projeto de Desenvolvimento Sustentável) PAC (Projeto de Assentamento Coletivo)

23. Current situation in Amazonia Tension between different ways of access to market and natural resources, land tenure regimes (private and public/collective) and political forces. Araújo e Aguiar (forthcoming)

24. INPE/PRODES 2005: Pará State Deforestation Forest Non-forest vegeration Clouds/no data Brazilian Amazonia Baixo Amazonas Transamazônica PA 279 BR 163

25. Lower Amazonas and Transamazônica PDS ESPERANCA INCRA: 207 Land Settlements SFB: National forests concession and common land management

26. Érika Saito Mappingtrajectoriesofchange • Mapas de Padrões Trajetórias 2006

27. Landscape model: different rules for two main types of agents Landscape metrics model Beef and milk Land use market chain model change model Pasture degradation model Medium Medium Small Small and large and large farmers farmers farmers farmers Several workshops to define model rules and variables

28. FRENTE MEIO RETAGUARDA Forest River Not Forest Deforest Landscape model: different rules of behavior at different partitions which also change in time SÃO FÉLIX DO XINGU - 2006 FRONT MIDDLE BACK

29. Modeling results 97 to 2006 Observed 97 to 2006