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Where Can You Find Mrs. Elliott?. Desk is located in the WORKPLACE OFFICE down just past guidance near rooms 108/109. Times for Help: Before school: 7:50 am – 8:20 am in Workplace Office Lunch : Mon, Tue, Thurs in Workplace Office (or find me in staff room if I’m not there)
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Where Can You Find Mrs. Elliott? Desk is located in the WORKPLACE OFFICE down just past guidance near rooms 108/109. Times for Help: Before school: 7:50 am – 8:20 am in Workplace Office Lunch: Mon, Tue, Thurs in Workplace Office (or find me in staff room if I’m not there) Friday in 229 (supervision) Wednesday – unavailable (We Schools mtgs) After School: Check 207 first, then Workplace Office
Introduction to Probability Unit 1, Day 1 & 2
Learning Goals • I can utilize vocabulary related to experimental probability including terms like fair game, simulation, trial, random variable, discrete random variable, event, expected value, etc. • I can create experiments to simulate simple situations.
Our First Experiment! THE DICE GAME!!! Find a scrap piece of paper to be able to play this game, as well as a pencil, and if need be, a calculator to tabulate your score. The person with the highest score wins a surprise!
Experimental Probability Throughout history, people have been interested in forecasting future events and making predictions. One of the major branches of modern mathematics is the “mathematics of chance”, also know as probability. Experimental probability is when we use simulations to determine the possible outcomes to a posed problem.
Experimental Probability Vocab • fair game – all players have an equal chance of winning (each player can expect to win or lose the same number of times) • simulation – an experiment that models an actual event; can be conducted using a variety of tools such as cards, coins, marbles, dice, poker chips, etc. • trial – one repetition of an experiment • random variable – a variable whose value corresponds to the outcome of a random event
Vocab continued • discrete random variable – a random variable that can take on only a finite set of values • event – possible outcome of an experiment • expected value –the average value that the random variable tends towards after many trials • relative frequency – number of observed occurrences divided by the number of trials
Defining Probability A measurement of the likelihood of an event is called the probability of the event and is based on how often that event occurs in comparison with the total number of trials. If the probabilities are derived from experiments, they are called experimental probabilities.
Experimental Probability Experimental Probability is the observed probability of an event A occurring in an experiment and is found using the formula P(A) = number of times the desired event occurred number of trials
Example #1 A family plans to have three children. Describe a simulation to estimate the likelihood that they will have a boy, a girl, and a girl, in that order.
Example #2: Describe a simulation to determine the probability of choosing a yellow tulip bulb from a bin if one in six of the bulbs in the bin is yellow.
Example #3 Estimate the probability of rolling a 7 with two dice. What other observations might you make about rolling a number with 2 dice?
Homework • pg 206 Example 1, pg 209 #1, 3, 8
