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Water Resources Development and Management

Water Resources Development and Management. CVEN 5393 Lecture 1. Inter-decadal. Climate. Decision Analysis: Risk + Values. Time Horizon. Facility Planning Reservoir, Treatment Plant Size Policy + Regulatory Framework Flood Frequency, Water Rights, 7Q10 flow Operational Analysis

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Water Resources Development and Management

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  1. Water Resources Development and Management CVEN 5393 Lecture 1

  2. Inter-decadal Climate Decision Analysis: Risk + Values Time Horizon • Facility Planning • Reservoir, Treatment Plant Size • Policy + Regulatory Framework • Flood Frequency, Water Rights, 7Q10 flow • Operational Analysis • Reservoir Operation, Flood/Drought Preparation • Emergency Management • Flood Warning, Drought Response Data: Historical, Paleo, Scale, Models Weather Hours A Water Resources Management Perspective

  3. Diurnal cycle Seasonal cycle Ocean-atmosphere coupled modes (ENSO, NAO, PDO) Thermohaline circulation Milankovich cycle (earth’s orbital and precision) Climate Variability • Daily • Annual • Inter-annual to Inter-decadal • Centennial • Millenial

  4. Research Framework What Drives Year to Year Variability in regional Hydrology? (Floods, Droughts etc.) Diagnosis Hydroclimate Predictions – Scenario Generation (Nonlinear Time Series Tools, Watershed Modeling) Forecast Decision Support System (Evaluate decision strategies Under uncertainty) Application

  5. Colorado River Basin Overview 7 States, 2 Nations Upper Basin: CO, UT, WY, NM Lower Basin: AZ, CA, NV Fastest Growing Part of the U.S. Over 1,450 miles in length Basin makes up about 8% of total U.S. lands Highly variable Natural Flow which averages 15 MAF 60 MAF of total storage 4x Annual Flow 50 MAF in Powell + Mead Irrigates 3.5 million acres Serves 30 million people Very Complicated Legal Environment ‘Law of the River’ Denver, Albuquerque, Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego all use CRB water DOI Reclamation Operates Mead/Powell 1 acre-foot = 325,000 gals, 1 maf = 325 * 109 gals 1 maf = 1.23 km3 = 1.23*109 m3

  6. % Total Runoff Runoff Basin Area • Most runoff comes from small part of the basin > 9000 feet • Very Little of the Runoff Comes from Below 9000’ (16% Runoff, 87% of Area) • 84% of Total Runoff Comes from 13% of the Basin Area – all above 9000’

  7. Motivation - Current State

  8. Below normal flows into Lake Powell 2000-2004 62%, 59%, 25%, 51%, 51%, respectively 2002 at 25% lowest inflow recorded since completion of Glen Canyon Dam Some relief in 2005 105% of normal inflows Not in 2006 ! 73% of normal inflows 2007 at 68% of Normal inflows 2008 at 111% of Normal inflows 2009 at 88% and 2010 at 72.5% Decadal Variability! MotivationRecent conditions in the Paleo Context 5 year running average Woodhouse et al., WRR, 2007

  9. Natural Climate Variability Climate Change – 10% reduction Rajagopalan et al. 2009, WRR Climate Change – 20% reduction

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