What's up with the vocational education?

1. What's up with the vocational education? Dissecting the education-job mismatch in school to work transitions in Croatia Evidence based policy making for employment generation and skills provision New Skills for New Jobs in the Western Balkans? Teo Matković, University of Zagreb

2. Education-occupation mismatch? Mismatch between educational system and "labour market needs". One way of understanding it: a "mechanical" issue of supply and demand? Assumption: non-problematic link Education --> Occupation But: Weak demand for some occupations or "overproduction" of some cadres leading to problems with employability Flipside: Weak supply of profiles in demand is hurting the economy. If this holds true: Adjustment of entry quotas would solve skill mismatch and reduce unemployment

3. Strategy: to establish What is the sectoral structure of labour market entrants? What is the structure of occupational destinations for vocational education graduates? Is it due to mismatch of aggregated supply and demand? What about the employability? Does job acquisition dynamics vary across fields of education? Is there a noted structural trend of change in employability for ? What had the crisis brought us? Digresion 1: Things in the context: Differences between fields vs. differences between levels of education Digression 2: Evidence on facilitating employability through training ALMPs

4. Observing the post-educationoutcomes: Analytical approach and sources A: Population: all persons who completed vocational education in the period C: Registered with PES Dynamics: employed within 6/12/36 months Destinations: occupation (ISCO) of first job B: Entered higher education Number continuing education Destinations: type and field of higher education Education database (E-matica) – aggreg. CBS education statistics PES database Reliable knowledge on current (and past) outcomes among people leaving education – as a base for policy development and (one of key inputs) for future planning.

5. The data used here A product of IPA project "Strengthening of the institutional framework for development of VET occupational standards, qualifications and curricula" (Jačanje institucionalnog okvira za razvoj strukovnih standarda zanimanja, kvalifikacija i kurikuluma) Entire population of new registrants 2006-2010 Detailed field of education, date of job aquisition, administrative ISCO and ISIC codes of the job. Focus on secondary educated recent school leavers with no substantive previous experience (age <21). Bias: only those who reported to PES (67% for vocational graduates over entire time span – much higher as reccesion struck)

6. On outcomes presented here Horizontal mismatch Education-occupation mismatch: have graduates ended in the occupations they were trained for Job analysis approach (taking intended match of education and occupation at a face value) - expert estimate of sectoral council experts. Relaxed criterion applied – if any occupation deemed suitable for broad educational sector is reached by a graduate from any course within the eductional sector, the outcome is considered a match (e.g. if a trained cook gets a waiter job) – likely underestimating incidence of mismatches Job acquisition dynamics Ability to find (any) job within 6/12/36 months Ought to be lower among the graduates from "sufficitary" education programmes where demand for associated occupations is weaker.

7. Structure of vocational education origins (1)

8. ...and occupational destinations (for same pop.) (2)

9. ...compositional mismatch for youth? (3)

10. How often sectoral occupations get filled from "appropriate" education? (4)

11. Differences in general employability?(graduates from short vocational courses)

12. Crisis and employability by sector of vocational secondary education: not much of a difference

13. Differences within educational sectors? Dynamics of job acquisition: The most populous vocational programmes in electrotechnics

14. In-detail: Occupation of the first job found: electro-technician

15. What about level of education?

16. Possibility of a quick-fix: efficiency of training ALMPs estimation via matching technique (Matković et. al, 2011) Sudionici mjera iz 2009. evidentirani kao nezaposleni u 10. mj. 2011: Financiranje obrazovanja 44% Kod njima sličnih nesudionika 46%(ns) But slight (2-6%) positive effect for younger unemployed, persons without upper secondary education and returnees from inactivity ...just like in the West, might help some (at considerable price), but not a magic wand.

17. Findings: wrapping up (1) Many horizontal mismatches, lasting ones Wasted (personal and public) investment? Some sectors in "short supply" (wood, tourism, construction) Majority of graduates find jobs in apropriate occupations, often slightly faster than others (but: health) In some sectors occupational demand exceeds supply (engineering, electrotechnics) But recruitment to sectoral occupations mostly happens from sectoral education Maintaining the capacity or reducing educational sectors? Good signal? Average or above-average employability Some educational sectors seldom leads to sectoral occupation although there is no lack of demand for sectoral occupations Content of education not recognized as relevant with employers? As well, slightly lower employability.

18. Findings: wrapping up (2) Employability variation between and within education sectors rather modest Vocational education composition unlikely to be a key for understanding persistenly slow labour market integration of youth Level of education as key determinant of LM outcomes Tradeoff at the personal level: educational trajectory choice (few viable "bridging" options between tracks) Limited remedial capability of active labour market policies

19. An issue of credibility and quality of education, not quantityDevelopment of ocupational and qualification standards Source: Balković et. al, 2011

20. (All resources and products available from ASOO webpages): http://www.asoo.hr/euprojekti/kvalifikacije/default.aspx?id=521

21. Further strivings/extension: Human potential register Source: Crnković-Pozaić, 2012

22. Observing the outcomes: Analytical approach and sources A: Population: all persons who completed vocational education in the period C: Registered with PES Dynamics: employed within 6/12/36 months Destinations: occupation (ISCO) of first job B: Entered higher education Number continuing education Destinations: type and field of higher education Education database (E-matica) – aggreg. CBS education statistics PES database Directly linkable: Individual level data (anonymized) More precise: State matriculation (Državna matura) +ISVU databases Complete coverage: Pension insurance Base (HZMO)

23. Some leads... Limited function of vocational quota allotment Having in mind not only credentials, but credible vocational competences – transparency of competences Growing body of evidence on employer skill needs (but how will they be provided/implemented?) Employee perspective? (skills survey) Necessary involvement and coordination with employers: building functional linkages – with respect to training and content, leading to credible outcomes Tradeoff: vocational skills and workplace training (facilitating insertion) vs. general competences (key for tertiary education and lifelong learning)