April 2000 COCUS and NPA Exhaust Analysis

1. April 2000 COCUS and NPA Exhaust Analysis NANPA Report to the NANC May 23, 2000

2. COCUS Overview • NANPA is required to forecast availability of NANP numbering resources and to ensure the continued viability of the NANP • Predict area code exhaust • Predict NANP exhaust • April 2000 COCUS • Distributed January 2000 with input due back by March 1, 2000 • Requested Data • Company Name, Address, Service Provider Type, Operating Company Number (OCNs), Contact Information • CO Codes assigned by NPA as of January 1, 2000 • Yearly Forecasted CO Codes for 2000 - 2004 • Telephone Number (TN) utilization data

3. NPA Exhaust Analysis • Input • April 2000 COCUS survey responses provided by service providers (analysis included submissions provided to NANPA by April 20, 2000) • Historical CO code assignment data by segment over past three years • Number of service providers and their expansion over the same time period • Recent NPA relief activity • Other Data Points • CO code assignments as of April 1, 2000 • Total Number of Codes available for assignment • Rate centers per NPA • CO Code rationing amounts • Other miscellaneous data (e.g., last relief, split vs. overlay)

4. NPA Exhaust Analysis • Projecting growth resulting from new entrants and/or expansion of footprint in an NPA • Number of Rate Centers in the NPA • Expected Number of New Entrants • Expected Amount of Footprint expansion • Amount of time until NPA Exhaust • NPA Exhaust Projection • “Forecasted” CO code growth rate • Potential number of CO codes required for “non-forecasted” growth over the life of the NPA (i.e., growth pool) • NPA Months to Exhaust is the “forecasted” growth plus codes needed for “non-forecasted” growth • Exhaust projections reviewed by NPA Relief Planning and Code Admin. • Appropriate revisions made

5. NPAs in Rationing • For NPAs in rationing, the projected exhaust was based upon the monthly rationed amount • Identified in the report with an “R” • A “non-rationed” projected NPA exhaust date was also developed • Guiding principle - What would be the forecasted exhaust date if rationing was not in place? • Sources of data to develop non-rationed demand included historical demand and/or COCUS submissions • Variables included length of time in rationing (i.e., was there pre-rationing historical demand available) and COCUS submissions (i.e., April 2000 COCUS response rate for the NPA)

6. NANPA COCUS Observations • Improved COCUS Response - The NPA average for survey responses represented approximately 85-90% of total CO codes assigned (as of 1/1/00) • Ongoing changes and additions to COCUS submissions as service providers updated forecasts and/or added NPAs • Variances between historical demand vs. COCUS forecasted demand • High historical demand but low COCUS demand and visa versa • COCUS input for NPAs in rationing • NANPA requested SPs to provide their demand of codes, regardless of rationing • In some cases, forecasted demand was very high • In some cases, forecasted demand was high in the closer years and then leveled off • In some cases, forecasted demand was lower than the rationing amount

7. NANPA COCUS Observations • Reclamation of Codes - Continued process of identifying and reclaiming codes unavailable for assignment • Results were not as drastic as experienced between April and December 1999 • Reclamation activity centered around where NPA relief was in progress • Reporting TN utilization • Better response rate as compared to April 1999 • Some fairly large code holders did not provide utilization data

8. Next Steps • Ongoing Analysis • Continue to monitor actual CO code assignments with forecasted growth projections • Review and revise individual NPA exhaust projections as necessary (e.g., large CO code assignment, large return of codes) • NANP Exhaust Projection Schedule • Review NANP exhaust projection assumptions with the NRO WG (completed May 18, 2000) • Review NANP exhaust projection assumptions with NANC (May 23, 2000) • Provide NANP exhaust projection at June 20-21, 2000 NANC meeting