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2020: A Publishing Odyssey

Explore the major shifts in traditional media industries and scholarly journal publishing, including the rise of open access, the impact of digital distribution, and the future possibilities for the industry. Gain insights into the challenges and opportunities facing publishers and authors in this evolving landscape.

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2020: A Publishing Odyssey

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  1. 2020: A Publishing Odyssey Ahmed Hindawi, CEOHindawi Publishing CorporationUKSG 2009

  2. Contents • Introduction • Traditional Media Industries • Scholarly Journal Publishing • Three Big Changes • Major Drivers for these Changes • Five Possible Futures • Closing Remarks

  3. It makes increasingly less sense even to talk about a publishing industry, because the core problem publishing solves — the incredible difficulty, complexity, and expense of making something available to the public — has stopped being a problem. — Clay Shirky

  4. Traditional Media Industries • Newspapers and Magazine Industry • Trade Book Publishing • Music industry

  5. Trade Book Challenges • No print and distribution • Book publishers have B2B rather than B2C brands • 30m books are coming back from the dead • Digital distribution cost is 0 -> prices will fall • Demand is not going to go up

  6. Scholarly Journal Publishing • Highly differentiated content • Bought by organizations • Piracy is not an issue

  7. Three Big Changes • Open access versus toll access • The journal as a brand on the author side • The journal as a brand on the librarian side

  8. Drivers for Open Access • The recognition by scholars and research funders of the merits of open access • Serials crisis – difficult to expand TA journals (NAR) • Green open access – Gold is more viable and secure

  9. The Journal as a Brand on the Author Side • Citation database – h-index, author impact factors • Post publication review – F1000, PLoS ONE

  10. The Journal as a Brand on the Librarian Side • Real economic advantages for the Big Deal

  11. Five Possible Futures • (0,0,0): the near past of scholarly journals • (0,0,1): the big deal on a massive scale • (0,1,0): not possible – if authors don’t care, librarians wouldn't • (0,1,1): toll access, journals are unimportant for authors • (1,0,n/a): open access, journals are important for authors • (1,1,n/a): open access, journals are unimportant for authors

  12. (0,0,0): the near past • Journals are published under the toll access model • Journals are very important on the author side • Journals are very important on the librarian side • Serials Crisis is one of the consequences

  13. (0,0,1): here comes the big deal • Journals are published under the toll access model • Journals are very important on the author side • Library budgets are committed to few Big Deals • More consolidations, a single player? • Unlikely, but it happens, we should expect some external market intervention

  14. (0,1,1): journal commoditization • Journals are published under the toll access model • Journals lost their brands on the author side • Publishers will publish all rigorous manuscripts • New pricing schemes for purchasing access • Pricing based on download and subjects • Ongoing market price

  15. (1,0,n/a): open access • Journals are published under the open access model • Journals are very important on the author side • Librarians don’t have to buy the journals to access them • High impact journals can demand higher APCs • More competition between journals and publishers (NP, NJP)

  16. (1,1,n/a): commoditization 2.0 • Journals are published under the open access model • Journals lost their brands on the author side • Librarians don’t have to buy the journals to access them • Publishers will publish all rigorous manuscripts • All journals are PLoS ONE like journals

  17. Closing Remarks • The future might be more complex • Open access isn’t the only important issue • Commoditization can carry benefits to the society • Scholarly journals has many stakeholders • It is important to be humble and objective

  18. It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it. — Upton Sinclair

  19. Thank You! Ahmed Hindawi ahmed.hindawi@hindawi.com

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