Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trns •port

1. Shortcut to Parametric Estimationvia Web Trns•port Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc.

2. The Parametric Paradox • Parametric estimation is one of the most important and desired estimation techniques • That very few people use

3. Why Don’t More People Use Parametric Estimation? • Because it requires powerful software? • No, Trns•port CES is available

4. What Most CES Users See

5. The Real Obstacles • Requires lots of resources and information • The scope and breadth of issues is very large • Methodology is complex, requires a lot of training and effort to master • A lot of fundamental data must be gathered and managed before the first estimate can be built • These are the big issues for CES users

6. Parametric Estimation is More Varied than Detail Estimation • The models for estimating an item price are the same regardless of the item • Cost-based • Determine crew, productivity, materials consumption, overhead, margin • Plug in current costs and derive unit price • Bid-based • Calculate weighted average prices or fit to standard formula via regression • Apply results to predict new item bid prices

7. Parametric Estimation Models Vary for Different Job Types • Steps needed • Develop conceptual model • Define the model as a “template” for new jobs of that type • Define how bid items are related to cost drivers • Statistically analyze historical prices • Enter model parameters and calculate • Only the last two steps apply to detailed estimation with CES or Estimator

8. The Real CES Challenges • New CES users start with a blank screen for the parametric model templates • Can’t develop estimates until all those preliminary definitions are done • It’s hard to see how to specify the abstract model so it can be used for real jobs • And there is always other, more urgent, work to be done

9. The Fundamental Dilemma • CES is extremely flexible • Any parametric model that can be reduced to formulas of any kind can be defined in it • But the first steps are extremely steep • And it’s hard to understand these steps without experience using other models • The necessary flexibility and power in the system lead to barriers to entry

10. Simplify, simplify. • Parametric estimation is very complex and difficult in general • So forget the general problem for now • All of CES will still be there to handle it when we come back! • Pick one type of problem, and create an “express lane” for it in CES • Make a shortcut to parametric estimation

11. The Shortcut(s) • Choose specific types of estimates to support • Asphalt resurfacing, perhaps another • Pick one estimation model per type • That is, determine what parameters will be considered, and how estimates will be derived from them • Provide reasonable defaults for everything • So estimators can provide minimal data and get adequate results, or more data for better results • Use defaults to simplify installation, too

12. Example: Resurfacing • Minimal parameters • Length, lanes, lane width, depth • Optional parameters • Location, urban/rural, maintenance of traffic, mobilization, milling, drainage, earthwork • Underlying data for calculations • Acquire cost data, and classify and analyze historical data

13. Shortcut Work Flow (for the user) • User enters required parameters • An estimate total is provided • User modifies defaulted parameters • The estimate is adjusted automatically • User wants to change basic estimation model • Must leave the shortcut and continue work in full CES instead

14. Shortcut Work (for the agency) • Install shortcut, accept default data • Get reasonable estimates, but not based on anything specific to your agency • Classify basic historical data • Define a few item groups and conversions • Run analysis models to feed CES • Develop your own models • Acquire cost driver data specific to your issues • Again, must leave shortcut for full CES at some point

15. Challenges for a Shortcut • We don’t want to add it to today’s CES client • That’s already big enough • Trying to make something simple by adding to a complex product isn’t likely to succeed • We don’t want to create a new application • Those are expensive to build and maintain • It might be the first of many specialized applications, which would be hard to manage • What options are left?

16. Enter Web Trns•port • An initiative to replace use of the Trns•port Windows clients for some functions • More ambitious than Trns•port Intranet • Not just a supplement to client-server • Web functions are inherently very loosely coupled • So specialized functions can be developed independently of others • Within a single manageable framework

17. Web Trns•port is not a New Application Only the blue pieces are new

18. Strategic Direction to Web • Lots of reasons for Web Trns•port • (I’ll gladly harangue anyone who’ll listen) • Part of strategic plan for several years • So Info Tech proposed a project to create needed infrastructure • And the TTF said “what’s in it for the users?” • Every project should provide direct user value • Project redirected to start Web Trns•port to solve important user problems • Starting with parametric estimation shortcuts

19. Project Goals • Provide a useful function almost all licensees will want to deploy • Parametric estimation shortcuts • Be easy for licensees to implement quickly • We don’t want to deliver “shelfware” • Ready for people to use almost immediately • Without a lot of configuration, data management, or end-user training • Create architectural foundation for Web Trns•port while delivering immediate value

20. Project in a Nutshell • Performing this fiscal year • Late start due to redirection of goals • Using “agile” methodologies • Replaces traditional lifecycle (with several review and approval stages) with constant communications • Product builds weekly or more frequently, available instantly to TRT • Delivery Q3 2004

21. What We’re Shooting For

22. Issues • Flexibility versus simplicity tradeoffs • Where do we draw the line? • Integration with agency data • Can we make matching items to cost groups as simple as the rest? • Authorized users • Same as for similar CES screens, or a broader group? • Allow “guest” estimators? Planners could create rough estimates, save in CES for estimators to develop more fully later.

23. What Can You Do? • Communicate with the TRT • “Agile” methodologies mean more functional decisions happen during the project • Discuss what you want • Chat about it on the TEA mailing list • Get your system managers ready! • A successful project will result in something quick to install and deploy

24. Shortcut to Parametric Estimationvia Web Trns•port Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc.