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Technological Life Cycle

Technological Life Cycle. The S-curved miracle. The S-curved technological progress. Natural bottleneck. Technological performance index. Technological Progress stage — application innovation . Emerging stage — new invention. Decline stage. Mature stage — market penetration. time.

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Technological Life Cycle

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  1. Technological Life Cycle The S-curved miracle

  2. The S-curved technological progress Natural bottleneck Technological performance index Technological Progress stage—application innovation Emerging stage—new invention Decline stage Mature stage—market penetration time

  3. Technological market value Up to the technological limit Technological maturity Emerging Application Technological substitution Technological development Application growth Market value Technological succession time Critical stage

  4. Multiple-generation technologies Technological performance index Envelope route of TLC Generation II Generation III Generation I time

  5. Interaction between Technology and Market • Science-technology push • Driven by scientific discovery and inventions • New market definition and new industry creation • Market pull • Driven by the transformation of demographics • User-involved innovation

  6. Market value of Product life cycle Prototyping stage Substitution stage Growing stage Launching stage Mature stage Market value Decline stage time Time lag relative to technological innovation

  7. Product/process innovation Innovation rate New wave innovation Process innovation Product innovation Chaotic stage Dominate design stage Time

  8. Diffusion of innovation • Comparative advantage • Compatible with existed behavior/value • Relative complexity • Testability for adoption • Visibility of performance

  9. Competition of diffusion 100% Cumulative Adoption rate Quick diffusion and dominate the market Delaying diffusion and diminish the competitiveness time

  10. Bandwagon effect for quick diffusion Adoption rate Quick diffusion by mass communication Delaying diffusion by means of word-of-mouth promotion time

  11. Reference • Rogers, Evertt M. (1995), Diffusion of Innovation, Fourth edition, Free Press, New York. • Utterback, James M. (1994), Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA.

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