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Canada’s National Air Quality Forecast Program

Canada’s National Air Quality Forecast Program. “Strengthening Canada’s long-term competitiveness, it’s natural environment and the well-being of it’s citizens”. ?. AQRB Mid-Term Review 2004. Outline. Current Status Challenges & next steps. Current Program Status.

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Canada’s National Air Quality Forecast Program

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  1. Canada’s National Air Quality Forecast Program “Strengthening Canada’s long-term competitiveness, it’s natural environment and the well-being of it’s citizens” ? AQRB Mid-Term Review 2004

  2. Outline • Current Status • Challenges & next steps

  3. Current Program Status • Program built on national infrastructure with regional product delivery • National Infrastructure – Weather and Numerical Models • Local and regional forecasts developed as appropriate given local conditions and partnerships • HQ provides scientific tools and program support • Regions and partners have improvised, making best use of partnerships, using appropriate tools and advancing at their own rate • New National Coordinator – AQF • Reports to DG AEPD • Consults closely with AQRB/CMC/PCAD • Objective is to build a “dynamic” forecast program that is relevant to Canadians

  4. Regional Forecasts • Forecasts are now available to 75% of the Canadian population through regional production & dissemination • Pacific &Yukon • 16 regions Daily AQI numerical forecasts (PM10 and ozone) now year round • Prairie and Northern • Experimental CHRONOS based forecast • Ventilation Index Forecast • Ontario (Province and MSC) • 28 regions AQI category forecast (PM2.5 and ozone) year round

  5. Regional Forecasts • Quebec • 13 regions (S. Quebec) daily AQI category forecast (ozone) summertime • PM2.5 when greater than 70 ug/m3 per 3 hr running average • Greater Montreal wintertime daily category forecast (PM2.5) • Atlantic • 15 regions twice daily AQI numerical forecast (ozone) summertime • Evaluation of CHRONOS PM2.5 capability • Experimental Wintertime category forecast

  6. Program Challenges and Next Steps • Current program developed from an “ad-hoc” approach. Requires National leadership to provide vision, establish priorities and accomplish product standardization • Principal challenge is the establishment of A-based program funding. Currently in year 2 of the 4 year BAQS funding. Expires in 2007 • Will require an “enhanced” resubmission to TB in 2005 • Program requires long-term funding stability in order to ensure success through strategic planning • important that all stakeholders identify/justify fiscal requirements prior to submission. Opportunity for increased $$$?

  7. Program Challenges and Next Steps • Establishment of year-round AQ forecasts • will require support from CMC/AQRB • current approach is for regional development of “tools” to address local issues i.e. Winter Dispersion • preferable to have a national approach to development lead by AQRB/CMC but working closely with Regions • New AQI likely to be implemented in 2007 (Phil Blagden) • ozone & pm - Additional pollutants (NOx/SO2) • will require reliable NO2 guidance capability (CHRONOS or other) at the operational level as ASAP • Enhanced operational model capability at the operational level • CHRONOS • finer resolution/ 2 runs per day • product equivalent of the GEM HiMap output • Request from Operations for the development of a statistical model i.e. “Son of CANFIS” or MOS products

  8. Program Challenges and Next Steps • National Standards and National Performance Measurement • Will be important for TB submission • NOAA/MSC Operational AQ Working Group • Meeting in Fredericton – Nov 17, 2004 • Agenda being developed • Meeting the needs of our principal stakeholders i.e. provinces through regulation development & adherence • Will play an important role wrt the AQF • Development of a National Outreach Business Plan (Sharon Jeffers) • Will have a R &D/Model component • Input from AQRB/CMC required

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