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Alaska Region-Alaska Aviation Workshop May 13, 2008

Alaska Region-Alaska Aviation Workshop May 13, 2008. IC4D-GFE at the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit/VAAC. IC4D - Overview. The IC4D client application is a modified version of the GFE. What is IC4D-GFE? (Interactive Calibration in 4 Dimensions).

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Alaska Region-Alaska Aviation Workshop May 13, 2008

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  1. Alaska Region-Alaska Aviation WorkshopMay 13, 2008 IC4D-GFE at the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit/VAAC

  2. IC4D - Overview • The IC4D client application is a modified version of the GFE.

  3. What is IC4D-GFE? (Interactive Calibration in 4 Dimensions) • Not your basic WFO GFE-but a modified version of it…4 dimensional with editable parameters • Based more on providing Forecaster improved guidance instead of model generated forecasts • It's more forecaster based than product driven • Used to produce high resolution digital aviation forecasts

  4. Why IC4D-GFE? • Important for many reasons to move into the modern-digital-database world…including verification activities. • Brings the AAWU into the gridded forecast concept. • For aviation…the current WFO graphics do not fully address aviation needs. • Users are requiring better graphical products. • A picture is worth a 1000 words to briefings. • VAA graphics can be produced from Hy-Split and Puff (currently not available). • Output types compatible with multiple users systems.

  5. AAWU Grids • Turbulence and Icing • Upper Winds • Freezing Levels • Convection TCU/CB/TSRA • Volcanic Ash, Visibility restriction… • Percent of Cloud Cover, Lowest Cig, Tops… • MSLP coordination with WFO’s • Numerous other guidance grids available

  6. AAWU-WFO Grid Interactions AAWU to WFO WFO to AAWU • Freezing level Surface winds (NDFD) • Ceiling Heights Sensible weather • Visibility Graphical Haz. Grids • LLWS/Winds Aloft • MSLP • Sky Cover

  7. Operational State Brings Endless Possibilities for AK Region • Point and Click TAF “guidance” • A coordinated NDFD between the AAWU and the WFO's • A coordinated/collaborated forecast for all Alaska Region offices. • Allows us to coordinate with Hawaii and Conus (lays the foundation). • Improved aviation forecast guidance which is equipment (Aircraft) driven, instead of based on a “fictional mid sized” airplane. • Meet the customer demands for graphical products

  8. Alaska Regional Office FXNet FS (or DSL) NWSTG NCEP Experimental FTP Site High Level System Data Flow AAWU • PIREPS • ACARS • Satellite (future) • AK216 NAM (Opnl) • (AWIPS D-2D netCDF) pulled via rsync Obs rsync’ed ~every 5 mins Model 2x per day IC4D output (images, etc) NDFD pulled via http Senator AK216 NAM (Expr) (GRIB) Pulled from NCEP via http (wget) daily

  9. ObsIngest process Detailed Data Flow - Senator NWSTG PIREPS ACARS Satellite AK216 NAM (netCDF) Raw data File system /data/fxa PIREPS ACARS Decoded PIREPS ACARS NDFD forecast grids Volcanic Ash Dispersion Guidance grids Puff Model Obs Data AK216 NAM (netCDF) MWave Guidance process Mountain wave Guidance grids Raw data pdt_input Aviation Parameter Guidance Generation Processes Grid Data AK216 NAM (GRIB) GTG/FIP/FIS/SLD Guidance grids AK216 NAM (GRIB) T/Wind@ FltLevels Guidance grids NCEP SREF Guidance grids ifpServer

  10. GTGGraphical Turbulence Guidance • Based on NAM Alaska AWIPS 216 Grid at 45km resolution (higher resolution in the near future). • Uses a series of indices that are put together and weighted based on input model parameters. • Uses internal matrix format for grids and the output file is in GRIB1. Output grid is the same as the input grid. • To run this program the run_gtg script needs to be executed from the python directory.

  11. Icing Guidance(FIP and FIS) Forecast Icing Potential and Severity • Based on NAM Alaska AWIPS 216 Grid at 45km resolution. (Same as GTG) • Produces a forecast based on a series of interest map functions for relative humidity, temperature, vertical velocity and other moisture parameters that make up the super cooled liquid water content. • Uses an internal format called MDV in order to make computations and read files.

  12. IC4D Turbulence

  13. IC4D Icing

  14. New Interface Display Features4 Panel Sidebar and PIREP Display Toggle PIREP/ACARS Layer Mode Display (Fixed/Float) Toggle Side Vertical Maps Display PIREP Message Rollover Tool

  15. New Interface Display FeaturesPIREP and ACARS Displays Configuration for both PIREPS and ACARS displays under “Obs Configuration” Selecting “Other Configurations…” pops up dialog to specify number of hours of PIREPS to display

  16. New Interface Display FeaturesPilot Report Displays – PIREP Rollover Tool PIREP Message Rollover Tool Mouse over to get PIREP message

  17. GTG with ACARS data overlay

  18. New Interface Display FeaturesLat/Lon Line Overlay Check box under “Maps” menu to toggle Lat/Lon lines on/off

  19. Parm ID Parm Name Parm Description Parm Upper/Lower bounds (units)‏ Database ID Flight Level Range in Database GTG Graphical Turbulence Guidance Turbulence Severity Index 100/0 (unitless)‏ GTG FLT100/FLT130 FLT210-450 @3000ft increm. FIP Forecast Icing Potential Pseudo-probability of the occurrence of aircraft icing 100/0 (% sort of)‏ FIP FLT030-FLT300 @3000 ft increm. FIS Forecast Icing Severity Severity index of aircraft icing 100/0 (unitless)‏ FIS FLT030-FLT300 @3000 ft increm. MWdrag Mountain Wave Breaking Drag Wave drag of turbulent waves (estimate of available energy for wave turbulence) 100/0 – scaled from 7/0 (unitless) MWave FLT010-FLT450 @1000 ft increm. SIP SuperCooled Liquid Water Pseudo-probability of encountering supercooled liquid water droplets 100/0 (% sort of)‏ SIP FLT030-FLT300 @3000 ft increm. Aviation Weather ParmsDescription

  20. Model Interpretation Basics Model Interpretation Tool High Level Interface Model Interpretation Menu Button Selected grid to adjust thresholds for Model Interpretation Dialog Categorical Slider Bars (for GTG) Reset Thresholds to Default Values Undo Threshold Adjustment Close Model Interpretation Dialog

  21. Tools for Adjusting GridsCategorical Threshold Adjustments Moving the “Light” slider to the right lowers the threshold value (25) between Cat 1 and Cat 2. As slider is moved to the right, more points from Cat 1 are bumped up into Cat 2. Example • GTG Categories • Cat 1 (0-25): Null to Occasional Light • Cat 2 (25-49): Light to Occasional Moderate • Cat 3 (50-74): Moderate to Occasional Severe • Cat 4 (75-100): Severe to Extreme • After each slider bar adjustment, the IC4D applies the updated instructions to the grid selected in the Grid Manager, and updates the display in the Spatial Editor. • Slider bar adjustments for Categorical thresholds are applied to every grid point on the grid. This is not the old GFE slider bar approach. Mixes and matches parameter weighting – not mixing different Models.

  22. Tools for Adjusting GridsCategorical Threshold Adjustments Default category definitions by parm: • GTG/MWdrag/FIS • Cat 1 (0-25): Null to Occasional Light • Cat 2 (25-49): Light to Occasional Moderate • Cat 3 (50-74): Moderate to Occasional Severe • Cat 4 (75-100): Severe to Extreme • FIP/SIP • Cat 1 (0-25): Zero to Low Potential • Cat 2 (25-49): Low to Medium • Cat 3 (50-74): Medium to High • Cat 4 (75-100): High

  23. Tools for Adjusting GridsCopying and Interpolating Adjustments • Allows the user to edit “cubes of data” rather than just the individual grid or plane. • Any slider bar changes can be simultaneously applied to other grids by selecting the “Apply to All Selected Grids” button at the top of the Model Interpreter Dialog. • When this button is selected ANY slider bar adjustments will be applied to grids selected in the Grid Manager. • Simply click and drag to highlight the grids in the Grid Manager you wish to apply the adjustments to.

  24. Tools for Adjusting Grids-Meteorologist in the loop • The meteorologist can go into the database and define the thresholds-can create their own. • The Met. can do grid point editing of the meteorological INPUT fields such RH, Vert. Velocities, etc.

  25. Parm Adjustment Type Model parameter condition GTG Increase turbulence severity At grid points where Wind shear exceeds forecaster-defined critical threshold FIP Increase potential for significant icing At grid points where RH falls in the range 80-95% FIS Decrease Icing severity At grid points where Vertical velocities are neutral Tools for Adjusting GridsModel Parameter Weights - Examples

  26. Tools for Adjusting GridsHow to Create a Model Parameter Weight (step 1) Select from IC4D main menu: Interpret-> Create Parameter Weights Parameter Weight Creation GUI

  27. Tools for Adjusting GridsHow to Create a Model Parameter Weight Parameter Weight RH FLT180Eta40 RH Eta40 Flt180

  28. Tools for Adjusting GridsPIREP Weights • Pilot reports can be compared to short term forecast grids as a verification check. • The challenge is to provide a technique to allow “nudges” to the short term forecast grids towards current observations in the volume of airspace immediately surrounding the reports. • The current solution is to create weight grids, similar to model parameter weights, that allow adjustments to be targeted to areas with current pilot reports that differ from the forecast. • The creation of PIREP weight grids occurs once per hour and incorporates all new pilot reports. The weighting algorithms contain many assumptions and are highly-configurable.

  29. Tools for Adjusting GridsCONUS Example of PIREP Weight Grid PIREP locations Radius of influence and weight value based on forecaster-defined configuration settings.

  30. Turbulence PIREP locations Forecaster interactively nudges forecast towards PIPEP values Tools for Adjusting GridsNudging Turbulence Forecast Towards Latest PIREPs

  31. Tools for Adjusting GridsAdjustments to Model Timing The timing of the forecast can be made faster or slower. This is done by blending progressive amounts of future or previous hours’ forecast into the selected hour’s forecast. Forecaster selects the amount of temporal shift, and the blending magnitude.

  32. Other IC4D Features and CapabilitiesComposite Grids and Image Generation • The IC4D contains image product generation scripts that will produce web-ready graphics of the 4D database. • Graphics consist of simple imagery of any forecast grid to composite images of aviation parms (e.g., Max Icing Potential in a vertical layer). • Images are generated from grids in the published (Official) database. • Output format is similar to that for NDFD, so images will have same look and feel as other NWS products.

  33. Other IC4D Features and CapabilitiesPUFF Model Guidance Select “Puff Model->Specify options and run” to launch the PUFF model dialog • The PUFF model can be launched from within the IC4D. • While the model runs, the IC4D interface is not accessible. • A dialog will pop up notifying you when the PUFF model simulation is completed and the new grids are available in the guidance database. • To view the PUFF guidance, bring up the Weather Element browser, and choose Source “Puff <day>/<cycle> where day and cycle is the NAM model run chosen in the PUFF model dialog.

  34. Other IC4D Features and CapabilitiesPUFF Model Guidance – Run Model dialog Select PUFF model source type - either Volcano (from list) or point source defined by Lat/Lon Enter Lat/Lon of point source Select one or more volcanoes from list Select input directory for wind model GRIB files (override default path) Open PUFF Model Options dialog Run PUFF simulation with selected parameters

  35. Other IC4D Features and CapabilitiesPUFF Model Guidance – PUFF Model Options dialog • Wind Model – Base model used by the PUFF simulation for dispersion winds. Currently nam216 is the only option. • Start Time – Pull down menu allow you to specify what model projection hour to begin running the simulation. • Plume shape – single select option • Plume Height – the top (in meters) of the initial ash plume • Plume Bottom – the bottom (in meters) of the initial ash plume • Eruption Hours – duration of the volcano eruption • Particle Number – number of eruption particles • Save Every [hrs] – the temporal resolution of the output PUFF model guidance grids. • Simulation [hrs] – Length in hours of the PUFF simulation. • *** See PUFF model documentation for more detailed descriptions of these options!!

  36. Other IC4D Features and CapabilitiesOther IC4D Guidance Sources - NDFD

  37. Other IC4D Features and CapabilitiesOther IC4D Guidance Sources – SREF (Vsby example)

  38. Probability of Low VIS (<1/2 Mile)

  39. Probability of low Ceilings (<500 feet)

  40. Cloud Tops (heights)

  41. -Fully Operational for AAWU forecasters by 2010?-Fully JPDO-4D Cube (Next GEN) status by 2012?

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