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COUNCIL MEETING AND ECONOMIC BRIEF Q1 2013

COUNCIL MEETING AND ECONOMIC BRIEF Q1 2013. #gmcca4b. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY. RESULTS FOR Q1 2013. NATIONAL OUTPUT. Source: Bank of England Inflation Report/Office for National Statistics National Accounts. HEADLINE RESULTS FOR Q1. Demand Service sector weaker, but remains positive

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COUNCIL MEETING AND ECONOMIC BRIEF Q1 2013

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  1. COUNCIL MEETING AND ECONOMIC BRIEF Q1 2013 #gmcca4b

  2. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY • RESULTS FOR Q1 2013

  3. NATIONAL OUTPUT Source: Bank of England Inflation Report/Office for National Statistics National Accounts

  4. HEADLINE RESULTS FOR Q1 • Demand • Service sector weaker, but remains positive • Manufacturing domestic contraction, but export orders improve • Employment • Remains positive and strengthens ahead • Shift to temporary hires in services • Investment • Intentions still weak • Manufacturing up slightly • Services ease • Confidence • Services hold at post-recession high, manufacturing eases reflecting underlying weakness in construction

  5. QES v NATIONAL OUTPUT CORRELATION Source: Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey/Office for National Statistics National Accounts

  6. DOMESTIC PRODUCTION DEMAND – SALES Source: Greater Manchester Quarterly Economic Survey

  7. NORTH WEST CONSTRUCTION ORDERS Source: Office for National Statistics Regional Construction Sector Statistics

  8. QES CONSTRUCTION ORDERS v ONS DATA Source: Greater Manchester Quarter Economic Survey/Office for National Statistics Regional Construction Sector Statistics

  9. QES EMPLOYMENT v JSA COUNT Source: North West Quarter Economic Survey/Office for National Statistics Labour Market Statistics

  10. EMPLOYMENT HIGHLIGHTS • Treat official headline numbers with caution • Policy driven increase in claimant count • Public sector losses • Some corporate failures and temporary workers released • Private sector still creating jobs and stronger intentions ahead • Manufacturing • Skilled positions the most difficult to fill • Construction sector also recruiting, reversing Q4 decline • Services • Slight shift to temporary hires • Clerical positions the hardest to fill

  11. EXPORTER CONFIDENCE – Q1 2013 Source: Greater Manchester Quarter Economic Survey

  12. EXPORTER CONFIDENCE – Q4 2012 Source: Greater Manchester Quarter Economic Survey

  13. NORTH WEST EXPORTS 2011 v 2012, £m Source: HMRC Regional Trade Statistics

  14. NORTH WEST IMPORTS 2011 v 2012, £m Source: HMRC Regional Trade Statistics

  15. INFLATION & COST PRESSURES • Manufacturing • Demand eases, with it do intentions to increase prices • Raw material price pressures • Exchange rate concerns • Competition eases in manufacturing, more intense for constructors • Services • Sustained level of those operating at capacity with intentions to pass on price increases • Pressure from input prices and overheads • Though competitive pressure intensify • Interest rate concerns rise after two quarters of falls

  16. PRODUCER INPUT PRICES Source: Office for National Statistics Producer Prices Index

  17. EXCHANGE RATES Source: Royal Bank of Scotland Databank

  18. BANK OF ENGLAND INFLATION – AUGUST 2012 Source: Bank of England Inflation Report August 2012

  19. BANK OF ENGLAND INFLATION – FEBRUARY 2013 Source: Bank of England Inflation Report February 2013

  20. CONCLUDING REMARKS • Mixed picture • Domestic v Export • Sectoral and sub-regional disparities • Retail: Shift to online / Powerful retail centres • Employment remains positive in private sector • Inflation remains a pressure for household and business • Business margins could be squeezed • Investment weak with low growth and uncertain outlook • Finance challenges • Long term options for business, but complex/tinkering by Government?

  21. THANK YOU QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION #gmcca4b

  22. ACTION FOR BUSINESS • Budget 2013 • Ongoing Action • Open Forum

  23. BUDGET 2013 • Housing Market - centered around Help to Buy, part of a £5.4bn package designed to tackle long -term problems in the housing market starting April 2013. A further 15,000 affordable homes announced. • Business Bank – accelerated deployment of £1bn capital, improve existing schemes and develop a new institution to support SMEs. • Heseltine Review response – confirmation of the setting up of a single local growth fund. • Employment Allowance - from April 2014 all businesses eligible for £2000 Employment Allowance – reduction off employer NICs. • Business Rates – no reference to Business Rates, universally recognised by business organisations as being a major issue for business.

  24. ONGOING ACTION • Procurement – ongoing work through Action For Business forums and presentations, mandatory use of PAS91 • Real Time Information– lack of awareness • Export – major new BCC initiative in 20 target markets, local connections with overseas Chambers

  25. OPEN FORUM • Any other issues? • Any questions? • Over to you……

  26. THANK YOU #gmcca4b

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