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IDEAS ON HOW THE CCP CAN SURVIVE CHINA’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION

IDEAS ON HOW THE CCP CAN SURVIVE CHINA’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION THAT WILL HAPPEN AROUND 2020 Prof. Dr. Hugo de GARIS Contents of Talk Principles of Transitology Applying Transitological Ideas to China

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IDEAS ON HOW THE CCP CAN SURVIVE CHINA’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION

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  1. IDEAS ON HOW THE CCP CAN SURVIVE • CHINA’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION • THAT WILL HAPPEN AROUND 2020 • Prof. Dr. Hugo de GARIS • Contents of Talk • Principles of Transitology • Applying Transitological Ideas to China • Plan for the CCP to Survive China’s Democratic Transition

  2. “TRANSITOLOGY” (the key word of this talk, google it) = a branch of political science that studies the transitions between one-party dictatorships and multi-party democracies

  3. Principles of Transitology • “Transitology” is a branch of political science that studies the • transition of one party dictatorships to multi party democracies. • Over the past 50 years, about 100 countries have made this • transition, i.e. at about a rate of 2 countries per year. • In 2010, about 120+ countries (of about 200) are democracies. • 2/3 of Asian countries are multi party democracies. • Large data bases have been constructed to collect the transition • experiences of these many individual nations. • What has been learned from these 100+ transitions?

  4. a) The main lesson learned is that a country will not switch from a one party dictatorship to a multi party democracy with regular elections, unless it is rich enough, i.e. it has to pass the “democracy threshold” of about $6000-$8000 per year per person. (In 2013, China was at $6000, with Shanghai at $8000) b) The rise of the middle class is critical. Once a sizable fraction of the population of a country is university educated, it asserts its values onto the culture. It demands to be heard, to have the right to elect its leaders, and to have the rule of law to protect its property. If the leaders do a bad job, the middle class insists on the right to replace them with alternative leaders from another party. This is the basic idea of Rousseau’s “Social Contract”.

  5. c) In about 2/3 of the cases of the transitions of the past 20 years, a “democratic faction” within the ruling dictatorial party, seized power during a crisis, and then created democratic institutions, especially a multi party system, rule of law, and periodic elections. d) The remaining 1/3 were “people power” transitions, in which mass demonstrations in the streets pushed the dictatorial party out of power. e) The “democratic faction” approach is generally less violent than the “people power” approach.

  6. b) Applying Transitological Ideas to China • The transitologists base their ideas on the experiences of about • 100 countries, and hence have real authority in their predictions. • What can they predict about the future transition of China to • democracy? • China today (2010) is too poor to be a democracy ($3500/yr/p) • China is still about a decade away (at least in the eastern cities) • from being rich enough to have a large enough middle class to • push effectively for democracy. • China has not yet passed the “democracy threshold” of • $6000-$8000/yr/p

  7. However many cities in eastern China will reach this threshold in • about 10 years or so - they will pass the “democracy threshold”. • The richest cities in China, e.g. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai, • Beijing, Xiamen, etc, are already (2010) over this threshold value. • iii) There are about 100-200 million middle class Chinese citizens in • 2010. In 5-10 years, this number should rise to over 300 million, • and most of them will be in the eastern cities, which do not have • the right to vote for their leaders, unlike the village peasants in the • central and western parts of China who already elect their village • leaders. • iv) About 200 million Chinese are now rich enough to travel • internationally. Since 2/3 of countries in Asia are now democracies • especially, Taiwan, Japan, etc, these Chinese tourists will be • influenced by the life style and political systems of their neighbors.

  8. Other Factors Pushing China into Democracy • The Internet. China has more internet users (Sept 2010, 400M) • than any other country. The internet teaches the Chinese • population that 2/3 of countries are democracies, and that • dictatorships are only for poor countries. • Foreign travel. As more 100s of millions of Chinese in the • coming decade travel to democratic countries, they will be • influenced by democratic lifestyles. • c) Neighboring democratic countries. A growing proportion of • countries neighboring China have already become democracies, • which then put moral pressure on China to do the same. • d) Dying beliefs. As Chinese get better educated, they abandon • old (totalitarian) beliefs, e.g. as happened with slavery, witchcraft.

  9. e) Odd Man Out. 90% of the world’s population living outside China are already living under democratic governments. This puts powerful moral pressure on China to conform to the world community’s norms (i.e. democratic government). The Chinese government is the “odd man out” on the world stage. f) Punishment. Now that China is the world’s second largest economy, the world community will increasingly punish the Chinese government for its massive crimes (the 80 million people it killed, its laogai (some 1000+ of them across the country), its suppression of basic human rights. A clear example of this was the awarding of the Nobel Peace prize to LIU Xiaobo in 2010 by a European country. This was a clear message from the democratic world community to the Chinese government - “Your values are considered disgusting by the world community.” g) Proxy Servers. About 40 million Chinese in 2013 are using proxy servers to avoid CCP censorship of the internet.

  10. Some of the Sharp Critiques from China’s Opposition Parties • Once the CCP allows opposition parties to exist, they will attack • vigorously the CCP with the latter’s appalling track record, in order • to achieve power. • To survive the Chinese democratic elections, the CCP will have to • react strongly to the very sharp critiques of the opposition parties. • The major critiques will be – • The CCP has killed 80 million of its own citizens. • i) 45 million starved to death in the great famine, that Mao caused, • 1958-1962 in the Great Leap Forward. • ii) 50 million went thru the LaoGai concentration camps for political • prisoners, half (25 million) of whom did not return (according to • Harry Wu, founder of the LaoGai Museum, Washington DC) • iii) More millions died in the Cultural Revolution 1966-1976.

  11. b) There are >1000 LaoGai camps in China today (says Harry Wu) with half a million to two million political prisoners. c) The CCP is profoundly corrupt at all levels. d) 90% of people living outside China today live in democracies, making China look backward, inferior, a “bottom third nation.” e) China’s leaders are often the only dictators in a room of (democratic) international leaders. f) The CCP puts its founder’s face (Mao Zedong) on its money. The opposition parties will liken this to the Europeans putting Hitler’s face on the Euro. g) The whole planet is democratizing. It will be China’s turn within about a decade, so the old party (a dictatorial party) the CCP, should go.

  12. Rest of World China Democracy (90%) Non Democracy Non Democracy (10%)

  13. China (dictatorship) USA (democracy) France (democracy) UK (democracy) South Korea (democracy) Germany (democracy) Italy (democracy) South Africa (democracy) Brazil (democracy) Japan (democracy) Argentina (democracy) Mexico (democracy) Australia (democracy) India (democracy) Poland (democracy) Canada (democracy) Russia (democracy) Turkey (democracy) Saudi Arabia (soon to be democracy) EU (democracy) The G20 Countries

  14. democrat democrat democrat democrat democrat democrat democrat democrat dictator democrat democrat Some G20 Presidents

  15. MAO STALIN HITLER 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 The 3 Great Tyrants of the 20th Century and the Number of Millions of People they Killed

  16. The Chinese government’s decision to put Mao’s face on the RMB is the moral equivalent of the Europeans putting Hitler’s face on the Euro.

  17. Measures the CCP can Use to Counter the Opposition Parties • Most Chinese care most about their living standard, China’s • economic growth, and less about the CCP’s track record. • The CCP can make a STRONG appeal to the Chinese public, • saying that the opposition parties have NO EXPERIENCE • in governing China. • So if the Chinese people vote for them, there is a risk, the world’s • highest economic growth rate risks evaporating. The CCP should • push very hard the slogan “Do you want your country run by amateurs, • and risk seeing the world’s highest economic growth rate evaporate?” • b) The CCP will need to purge vigorously its corruptors and advertize • this fact, showing the Chinese public, that the CCP is serious about • fighting the corruption in its ranks.

  18. c) To silence the critics of the CCP’s historical connection with • Mao Zedong, the CCP will need to TOTALLY DISSOCIATE • ITSELF from him, the greatest tyrant in history, in terms of the • number of people he killed. • The CCP will need to take his face off the money, change the flag, • change the party name to the Chinese Social Democratic Party (CSDP), • change the national anthem, take down Mao statues, etc, giving the • Chinese public a clear message that the CCP (now the CSDP) is a • new party with new, democratic policies. • d) The CCP will have to stop the censorship of the internet, open up • television to other countries, to allow freedom of speech. • e) The LaoGai will need to be stopped and all political prisoners • released, and compensation paid for their suffering. • Tradeunions, freedom of association, etc will be allowed. • China has 400,000 lawyers. It needs 10 million. Create Rule of Law.

  19. What happens if the CCP does not Reform? It will be pushed out of power by a growing educated middle class. Today’s China has over 100,000 public demonstrations/disputes each year, and the number increases every year. This is a pressure cooker waiting to explode. The CCP should bring in democratic reform under its own timing and control, rather than having it imposed on it by massive protest. If the CCP loses political control, there may be civil war in China, killing millions. The CCP (CSDP) can perhaps remain in power, keeping the good things of the CCP (e.g. the economic growth) and throwing out the bad things (e.g. dictatorship, laogai, corruption, etc). I.E. the same people remain in control, but as democrats, not dictators!

  20. 1950 86% Percentage of Nations that are Dictatorships 2001 37% Year 1950 2001 2040 When will the Transition to Democracy occur in China? The graph below shows that by about 2040, the whole planet will be democratic. China will democratize before the Arabs and Blacks, because it is growing so much faster economically. Percentage of Dictatorial Nations vs. Time

  21. Considering the two arguments given previously, i.e. • a) There will be enough middle class Chinese in the eastern • cities to push for democracy by about 2020. • and • The global democratic process predicts that by about 2040, • there will be no one party dictatorships left. Since China is • growing faster than the Black and Arab countries, which are still • non democratic, China will pass the “democratic threshold” • before them, i.e. before 2020, thus - • it is likely that China will be a democracy within 10-15 years, i.e. • by around 2020. • What consequences will this have for the survival of the CCP?

  22. The CCP has two main options. • a) Retire • b) Reform • a) TheRetire Option • If the CCP continues with a policy of “business as usual”, then • it is likely that a middle class based “people power” political • movement will push the CCP out of power, probably with some • violence, and the CCP will die, it will retire. • b) TheReform Option • If the CCP wants to survive China’s democratic transition, it will • need to become a democratic party itself. It will have to reform.

  23. Appealing to the CCP’s Self Interest The various democratic parties of China (currently under CCP control) should appeal to the CCP’s self interest if the CCP wants to survive China’s transition to democracy, which is likely to occur around 2020. The next generation of CCP leaders (now in their 50s) could become the leaders of a new democratic party that can advertize to the Chinese public - “Do you want your country run by amateurs, and see the world’s highest economic growth rate evaporate?” With a new party name, and new flag, purged of Mao, and corruptors, these leaders could be “old wine in new bottles”.

  24. The Importance of a “Smooth Transition” Plan for the CCP One of the major goals of the various Chinese democratic parties could be the creation of a transitological plan for the CCP (if it does not already have one). Such a plan should appeal to the self interest of the leaders of the CCP, and motivate them to reform their party into a democratic party. The alternative for these leaders is to be pushed (violently?) out of power, and probably before 2020, a mere 10 years away, given China’s economic growth rate. A smooth transition from a one-party to a multi-party system will mean less violence and less chaos for the Chinese people.

  25. c) Plan for the CCP to Survive China’s Democratic Transition • When China becomes a democratic country, that will mean • that “freedom of speech” and “rule of law” will become the norm. • i) With freedom of speech, the horrors committed by the CCP’s • founder, Mao ZeDong, will become widely known. According • to recent biographies (e.g. Chang) he killed about 70 million people, • more than Stalin/Hitler, which makes him history’s greatest tyrant. • The CCP will then have to totally dissociate itself from Mao. • It will need to take his face off the country’s money, and pull down • all portraits and statues of him. • The party will probably have to change its name, so as to give • the Chinese public the message that the party has changed its • policy. An appropriate new title would be the “Chinese Social • Democratic Party (CSDP)”.

  26. “How can the CCP stay in power after the transition to democracy?” • 1. Study the internet to find transitological plans for China. • 2. Pick the most appropriate, most realistic one. • Implement it. • If no such plan exists (hard to imagine) then :- • 1. Set a date for national elections, e.g. X years in the future. • Allow rival political parties to be formed and give them media • time to make their case.

  27. Allow freedom of the press and the internet. • Systematically purge and punish the corruptors from the CCP. • and advertise these purges, to give the public the idea that the CCP is reforming itself vigorously, to stay in power. • Make a strong case to the public that the CSDP is the only party in the country with real experience of government. “Do you want your country run by amateurs and see the world’s • highest economic growth rate evaporate?” • Bring in the rule of law, train more lawyers, make modern laws, commercial, civil, etc. Modernize the courts. • By the end of the X years, the CSDP should be a modern political party. • 9. Hold elections and bring China into the modern world.

  28. The democratization of China, will be one of the greatest political events of the 21st century. It will allow China to become a respected member of the world community. At the present time, the western democracies look upon China, as poor, dirty, corrupt, lazy, poorly educated, disorganized, and brutal, & hence is not worthy of respect. It is seen as a “third world nation”. Once China becomes a democracy, relations with the 2/3 of the countries in the world that are already democracies, will be much healthier. Democratic nations do not go to war against each other, their voting populations do not tolerate it. It is probable that the 21st century will be China’s. It will become the “USA” of the 21st century. A necessary step towards that new dominance is that it become a modern, democratic nation, respected by the other democratic nations of the world.

  29. Take Home Message CCP Leaders ! Learn the Lessons of Transitology ! If you want to stay in power after China becomes a democratic country, then create a transitological plannow for the CCP, to create a smooth transition to a democratic China, with the CCP reformed into a (social) democratic party (CSDP) If not, then the CCP will be pushed out of power by about 2020 by China’s rising middle class, as has happened all over the world. China is rapidly approaching the $6000-$8000/yr/p “democratic threshold” China’s democratic parties can help the CCP create this plan !

  30. Lemmings and Squirrels • The leaders of the CCP can be divided into two main camps – • “lemmings” • “squirrels” • Lemmings are herd animals that follow each other blindly. They • commit mass suicide by following each other blindly over the cliff. • Squirrels save nuts in the autumn. They plan ahead to survive the • harshness of the winter. • The “CCP lemmings” do not plan for the democratic revolution when • it comes. They are committing suicide. They will kill the CCP. • The “CCP squirrels” strategize for a smooth transition to democracy • by having a plan. They may even win the elections when they come.

  31. XI Jinping Future president of China 2012- ? Lemming or Squirrel? Will he preside over the CCP’s retirement or its reform?

  32. After China Democratizes China has 1.3 billion people and an average IQ of 105. Its average creativity scores are similar to the US, Europe, India, etc Once China democratizes, its sages (intellectuals) will be free to say what they think, so different from today (2013) China is three centuries behind the English speaking countries in terms of freedom of speech. Today’s China is intellectually sterile. It has won zero science Nobel Prizes. It contributes almost nothing to world culture. It is the only country not to use an alphabet. What will happen to China once it finds its voice?

  33. China, a fifth of the world population, will be preoccupied by its democratization for the next decade at least. After that, China should participate and later take the lead in the major ideologies of the 21st century, e.g. a) Globism (the formation of a fully democratic world state) b) Cosmism (the ideology in favor of building artilects) In a few decades, China will be the dominant culture on the planet, hence should be the dominant intellectual leader in the questions which will dominate the 21st century. Today’s China is an intellectual pygmy. It should be an intellectual giant. The world’s dominant culture should lead the debates of the 21st century’s dominant ideologies.

  34. Books • a) China’s Democratic Future : • How it will happen and where it will lead • Bruce GILLEY • Columbia University Press, 2004 • ISBN 0-231-13084-8 • Mao : The Unknown Story • Jung CHANG, Jon HALLIDAY, • Knopf, 2005, • ISBN 0-679-42271-4 • c) Hungry Ghosts : Mao’s Secret Famine • Jasper BECKER • Owl Books, 1998 • ISBN 0-8050-5668-8

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