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IAIA2007(3-8 June 2007, COEX, Korea). Global Warming, Urbanization, and Heat Waves. B.C. Choi , J. Kim, and D.G. Lee 6 June 2007 National Institute of Meteorological Research Korea Meteorological Administration. Introduction. Increased Heat Waves due to Global Warming.
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IAIA2007(3-8 June 2007, COEX, Korea) Global Warming, Urbanization, and Heat Waves B.C. Choi, J. Kim, and D.G. Lee 6 June 2007 National Institute of Meteorological Research Korea Meteorological Administration
Increased Heat Waves due to Global Warming Depend on the types of temperature increase and its variability - Increase of mean temperature - Increase of variability - Increase of both
Objectives • To understand heat waves occurrence in Korea • To study climatological characteristics of heat waves • To investigate health impacts of heat waves • To discuss the socio-economic impacts of heat waves • Data: • - Meteorological data (KMA), Daily weather chart (JMA), NCEP/CDC • Precipitation anomaly data • - Daily death data (All-caused deaths) for the major cities of • South Korea
Monthly and Yearly Distribution of Mortality 14-year monthly deaths in Seoul (1992-2004) • Large yearly variation of monthly deaths • Distinct peak in summer of 1994 due to record-breaking heat waves • Elevated monthly deaths in 2000 and 2002 • Relatively low deaths in 1992
Estimation of threshold temperature (Seoul) • important to estimate the health impact of heat waves • employing the two-phase linear regression model • threshold temperature found to be about 31 o C at Seoul • threshold temperature maybe depend on the regional climate and acclimation of inhabitants
Occurrence and duration of heat waves (Seoul) Monthly number of days when Tmax was over 31. 2 C at Seoul (1971-2000) Duration of heat waves (two consecutive days)
Comparison of regional standardized mortality • 7 Major cities of South Korea (mortality = deaths / 1 million inhabitants) • Elevated mortality in summer of 1994, especially in Seoul, Incheon, and Daegu
Precipitation Anomaly (mm) What derives record-breaking heat waves? • Closely associated with prolonged drought. • dry surface => reduced latent heat release => surface warming • reduced cloud and precipitation => strong insolation => surface heating • anticyclonic circulation => downward air motion => adiabatic heating • => Associated with regional and global climate change Precipitation Anomaly Data Courtesy: NOAA CDC
Drought Heat Waves () Precipitation () Clear Days () Soil Moisture () SFC Heating () Evaporation ()Latent Heat Release () Wild Fire * Smoke Emission () ATM Heating by Light Absorption () Cloud Cover () Incoming SW Drought and Heat Waves Hobbs et al., 1997 : Direct radiative forcing by smoke from biomass burning. Science, 275, 1777-1778.
Operational alert/warning system of heat waves US NWS: considering strength and duration of Heat Index (Excessive Heat Watch, Heat Advisory, and Excessive Heat Warning) In preparation of Heat Health Watch Warning System for major cities of US (> 0.5 million inhabitants) (2005 AMS Annual Meeting: Dr. Mark A. Tew)
Developing prediction model of air mass-based excess deaths All Excess Deaths positive Excess Deaths Shanghai model (Tan et al., IJB 2004) : Excess Deaths = -430.8 + 15.65*CDs + 11.71*AT (n=17, r=0.51) CD: consecutive days, AT: Apparent Temperature
Conclusion and Discussion • Heat waves need to be considered as one of weather-related disasters in the summer season. • There is an increase trend of occurrence of duration of heat waves in Korea. • The health impacts depend on the regional climate and acclimation of inhabitants. • Air mass-based Heat Health Watch Warning System (HHWWS) is currently under development in KMA/METRI.