How do the dots connect? Sustainable HD, Economic Recovery and CCA

1. How do the dots connect? Sustainable HD, Economic Recovery and CCA JANKI ANDHARIA, PhD Professor Jamsetji Tata Centre for Disaster Management Tata Institute of Social Sciences Mumbai, India andharia@tiss.edu jankiandharia@gmail.com

2. Structure of the presentation • The Context: nature and level of challenges • Unsustainable forms of devt: inherent tensions • Poverty, marginalisation, Ecological stress-CC • The contradiction between global processes, decisions and local impacts • Challenge of Livelihoods and survival – in normal times and post disaster • The SHD framework: Advantages • What should adaptation and Recovery mean?

3. North-South Divide Model-changing • In 1990, 80% of the world’s poor lived in stable, low-income countries; • In 2010, only 10% did, and • 66% of the world’s poor lived in middle-income countries, and 24% in fragile, low-income countries. • In 1990, G7 accounted for 66% of the world’s GDP at market exchange rates; • in 2010, G7 accounted for 50% of the world’s GDP. • External aid delivery combined with silo approach dominated global development agenda

4. Population growth • The world population is growing at 77 million people per year with two-third of the growth happening is Asia and the Pacific.

5. Global Trends • The last three decades shows an increase in the number of natural hazard events • Data (1970-2010) shows that the damages are significantly greater and rising particularly, in the last two decades as compared to earlier decades. • Most damage is from storms, earthquakes, floods • The frequency of natural disasters increased 5-fold since the 1970s, with estimated annual damages rising from $20 billion in the 1990s to $100 billion in the 2000s.

6. East Asia & the Pacific Disasters Losses in 2011 Sources: Adapted from UN OCHA 2011 with data from CRED-EMDAT; for Japan, Ministry of Finance 2012

7. Disasters and cities • Show that disasters will increase because of human activities • More people – in particular the poor – will be affected as they grow more vulnerable. • Over three-quarters of the 100 largest cities in the world are situated in locations exposed to potential serious natural hazards

8. Rapid growth of slum areas in almost all cities. • In 1990, there were nearly 715 million slum dwellers in the world. By 2000, the slum population had increased to 912 million. • Today, around 1 billion or 33 % of the world’s urban population resides in slums. • One out of every three city dwellers lives in slum conditions • Slum population will reach 1.4 billion by 2020 Deprivation reflected in slums

9. Vulnerability in Perspective: Hunger • Every five seconds a child dies because she or he is hungry Source: FAO State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 • Under-nutrition in children under the age 18 affects an estimated 350 to 400 million children Source: Global Framework for Action, 2006 • More than 70 percent of the world's 146 million underweight children under age five years live in just 10 countries, with more than 50 per cent located in South Asia alone Source: Progress for Children: A Report Card on Nutrition (No.4), UNICEF, May 2006

10. Contd.. • 524 million of the world's hungry live in South Asia - more than the populations of Australia and USA! • More than 60 percent of chronically hungry people are women • The number of chronically hungry people worldwide is growing by an average of 4 million per year at current trends Source: FAO & The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2006

11. Have definite implications for social/ economic development Most basic issues are- their impact on the poor and the links between poverty and vulnerability Therefore need to place D response in the context of global forces of development Disasters -not isolated events

12. War against Afghanistan

13. War on Iraq

14. Poverty plays a big role in keeping people vulnerable to disasters And in the same fashion, disaster keep the poor in poverty by consistently wiping out the few resources they have… OFTEN ARGUED THAT - DEVELOPMENT IS KEY TO REDUCING VULNERABILITY Focus on the Poor

15. 3 underlying drivers of risk affecting poverty and disasters • Vulnerable rural livelihoods • Poor urban and local governance • Ecosystem decline and Climate change which has a magnifying impact. The Global Assessment Report 2009

16. Ecological stress: Species Extinction AccordingThe International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) • 75% of genetic diversity of agricultural crops has been lost • 75% of the world’s fisheries are fully or over exploited • Up to 70% of the world’s known species risk extinction if the global temperatures rise by more than 3.5°C • 1/3rd of reef-building corals around the world are threatened with extinction • Over 350 million people suffer from severe water scarcity • At threat of extinction are • 1 out of 8 birds • 1 out of 4 mammals • 1 out of 4 conifers • 1 out of 3 amphibians • 6 out of 7 marine turtles #!

17. Pressures on biodiversity The rate of biodiversity loss has not been reduced because the 5 principal pressures on biodiversity are persistent, even intensifying: • Habitat loss and degradation • Climate change • Excessive nutrient load and other forms of pollution • Over-exploitation and unsustainable use • Invasive alien species The UN’s 3rd Global Biodiversity Outlook

18. CC: The North South debate • The South’s environmental concerns pertain to • air quality, water resources, land degradation, bio-diversity and habitat protection • CC makes devt difficult as it threatens resources, deepens existing problems, poses new problems and makes solutions both difficult and expensive

19. The North’s consumption patterns • Are unsustainable and driving CC • Ex.: 75 % of energy resources consumed by 25% of pop. • Who also consume more than 70 % of mineral resources, 75% of cars, 75% of newsprint, timber, etc. • These consumption patterns of the rich set a std for the global community

20. Climate change adaptation • The IPCC suggests that temperature increases above the range of 3.5 to 5.5°F (2 to 3ºC) over the next 100 years would dramatically increase the negative impacts of climate change. • More rapid climate change makes adapting to change more difficult and costly. • This is especially true for vulnerable groups (such as the poor, the very young, and older adults) and fragile ecosystems which may struggle to adapt to even small changes.

21. What global forces are at work? • What drives this form of development? • Are they local, regional, national or international? • Particularly important when speaking of recovery programmes, communities and their livelihoods? • What is the extent of control that people particularly the vulnerable, have over their economic destinies? • Recovery and CCA programmes are embedded within these very global / macro processes

22. SHDI framework: way ahead!? • Move away from event based response-to cultural specificities • Focus on human rights, dignity- deep appreciation of local knowledge, community processes • Helps examine complex linkages bet- • Disasters, CCA and Devt • Culture and science • Ecology and sustainability • Official governance and community practices • There is a multi-layered programming challenge-intensely political in nature !!

23. Thank you