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Recent Global Crop Production Shortfalls

Recent Global Crop Production Shortfalls. Curt.Reynolds@fas.usda.gov USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Office of Global Analysis (OGA) International Production Assessment Division (IPAD).

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Recent Global Crop Production Shortfalls

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  1. Recent Global Crop Production Shortfalls Curt.Reynolds@fas.usda.gov USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)Office of Global Analysis (OGA)International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) Image Source: West, Paul C, et al, 2010. "Trading carbon for food: Global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, November 16, 2010, vol. 107, no. 46, pp.19645-19648, http://www.pnas.org/content/107/46/19645.full.pdf+html

  2. Record soybean($17.89/bu) & corn prices ($8.49/bu). 2007 price hike from low global stocks, record droughts & US corn ethanol demand 1970’s price hike Landsat-1 launched on July 23, 1972 and first predecessor WASDE report (10/14/80) released on Sept. 17, 1973.

  3. 0.2 is 73-days (0.2*365) of stocks Low stock levels raised prices. Low stocks raise prices

  4. Global Corn Production ~350 MT ~65 MT ~200 MT ~90 MT >80% corn produced in northern hemisphere 2011 Global Corn Statistics

  5. Analog year analysis (1988) and assume normal weather to end of crop season -26% yield reduction from May’s forecast Corn yield forecast from trend yield analysis by USDA/WAOB Corn yield forecast from ground sample surveys by USDA/NASS Source: USDA-WAOB (World Agriculture Outlook Board) , Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

  6. US Corn Yields May 2012 trend yield forecast = 166 bushels/acre = 10.4 tons/hectare -26% September 2012 yield estimate = 123 bushels/acre= 7.7 tons/hectare

  7. Record US Corn Production Shortfall (104 MMT)between May & September, 2012 -27%reduction in corn production forecast -72 MMT 2012 drought caused record US corn production shortfall (difference between May & September) of 104 MMT. -103.7 MMT

  8. Global Corn Production Difference 103 MT=4.08 Billion Bushels 4 BB* $7/bushel=$28 Billion lost

  9. US Ethanol Plant Locations & Construction Timeline Sources: Top-Left: USDA/FAS/OGA/IPAD Top-Right: USDA/NASS (right) http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Ethanol_Plants/U._S._Ethanol_Plants/indexBottom: RFA (Renewable Fuels Association) http://www.ethanolrfa.org/pages/statistics#A

  10. U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol and Share of Total Use Note: Projections for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

  11. U.S. Corn Exports and Share of Total Use Note: Projections for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

  12. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Stocks-to-Use Note: Projections for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

  13. U.S. Corn Price Received by Producers Note: Projections for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

  14. Global Exports: Soybean Trade Surpassed Wheat & Corn after 2002 Soybeans surpass wheat & corn.

  15. China Soybean Imports Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and PSD Online August 12, 2010 USDA/FAS/OGA

  16. Global production gains from increased yields Slight gain in global crop area

  17. Greatest gains in corn yields & global corn yields continue to increase Less yield gains in wheat and soybean, and yields beginning to flat line.

  18. US corn yields beginning to plateau near 10 tons/hectare “Green Revolution” with hybrid seeds, fertilizers, etc. has not completely arrived in Africa.

  19. Southern Africa Agro-climates for Different Seed Varieties Pannar Seed Extravaganza in South Africa with future attendance (hopefully) from FEWSNET national reps from neighboring SADC countries.

  20. How to Maximize Grain Production to Meet National Grain Demands?? Drought Prone Areas Provide hybrid seeds & fertilizers in high potential agro-climates with fertile soils. USAID-Zimbabwe now distribute input seed/fertilizer packages according to agro-climate zones.

  21. Four Corn Hybrid Series in Zimbabwe Source: Zimbabwe Seed Co. Product Manual 2010/11 USDA/FAS/OGA/IPAD

  22. USAID Paved & Opened Jube-Nimule Highway on Sept 12, 2012 (tarmac road from Juba to Kampala & Mombasa) Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/201209160278.html Tarmac roads in the south will pass through high potential agriculture regions in South Sudan and agriculture markets will greatly improve with tarmac roads from Juba to southern neighboring countries. Local market (75-km north of Juba) with most products from Kampala Main “highway” 10-km North of Juba

  23. Global Production (Area & Yield) Trends: • Record 2012 US corn production shortfall(~104 MMT) from opening MY forecast in May. • Record maximum temperature, heat waves (>95-105oF) and droughts during Northern Hemisphere summers (July/August) will greatly reduce global crop production over major grain belts. • Global stocks at record lows as demand outstrips production. • Corn demand significantly increased with US corn ethanol. • Crop yield improvements beginning to flat-line in countries with highest yields, indicating yield gains beginning to plateau. • Crop yields in Africa can increase with better seeds, fertilizers & infrastructure. • Global crop area expansion beginning to flat-line and land grab deals in Africa are increasing. USDA/FAS/OGA/IPAD

  24. Thank you! USDA/FAS/OGA/IPAD

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