Vincent Dupriez (GIRSEF, Université de Louvain) D ominique Lafontaine ( Université de Liège)

Educational expectations:influence of social background, school context and educational structures Vincent Dupriez (GIRSEF, Université de Louvain) DominiqueLafontaine (Université de Liège) ChristianMonseur (Université de Liège) MaudVan Campenhoudt (GIRSEF, Université de Louvain)

Introduction This paper is a part of a broader project about (social) inequalities of access to University education (in Belgium) Our intention was also to implement a comparative analysis in order to get a) empirical data and to b) assess the relationship between educational structures and access inequalities

Finally, this study concerns post-secondary educational expectations and not access to post-secondary educational education • Social inequalities are analysed in reference to: • Students’ social background • School composition • Institutional context (educational structures)

1. Literature review: influence of SES on (professional and educational) expectations • Until they are 11 years-old, pupils are attracted by familiar or prestigious professions, whatever their parents’ diploma (“vocational fiction”, Dumora, 1990); • Between 11 and 15: from the “possible” to the “plausible” (cf. Bourdieu): the subjective hopes adjust to the objective probabilities of success • Moderate or large effect of SES on expectations (partially) mediated by academic performance. • At the end of secondary schooling: large effect of SES on educational expectations (England, France, USA, ...)

Some authors also looked at the SES influence after controlling for academic achievement: differences in aspirations which are not explained by differences in academic achievement (Social self selection, Boudon, 1973) In France and in Belgium, a residual impact of SES is observed (over and above academic diplomas and achievement);

1. Literature review: influence of school composition • Evidence of school and class composition effect on achievement • Evidence of school/class composition influence on academic self-concept (Big Fish Little Pond Effect) (Marsh, 1991; Marsh & Hau, 2003; Trautwein & al., 2009); • BFLPE: belonging to a high performing classroom has a negative influence on student academic self concept (ASC) • Explanation by the social comparison theory: individuals compare themselves with the group (a contrast effect when comparing with “high-level” peers) • Marsh (1991) , using longitudinal data from US found that school average ability negatively affect educational aspirations.

1. Literature review: influence of school composition • Marsh and O’Hara (2010), using longitudinal data from the Youth in transition longitudinal US database (1960-1970, boys only), found: • that school-average ability at grade 10 negatively affects educational aspirations and that the effect grows over time (effect as strong as on ASC); • mean school SES had a modest positive effect on educational aspirations. • In sociology, diferentstudies on the impact of peers’ socioculturallevel on aspirations (Law, 1981; Thrupp, 1999; Frost, 2007): aspirations are higherwhenstudents attend a schoolwith a high-level of socioculturalintake • Explanation: normative influence of the group, access to information, processes of modeling …

1. Literature review: differences between school systems • Strong evidence of the relationship between educational structure (age of first tracking) and educational inequalities (Dupriez, Dumay, Vause, 2008; Hanushek & Woessmann, 2006) • Very few research about the relationship between educational structures and expectation inequalities • Buchmann & Park (2009), using PISA data from 10 countries highlightthat in highlydifferentiatedschoolsystems (earlytracking, Austria, Germany, Hungary and the Netherlands): • SES ishighlypredictive of the type of schoolstudents attend • The magnitude of SES effect on educational expectations is higher than in low differentiated countries (Australia, Canada, NZL, Spain and USA)

2. Research questions Are educational expectations related to students’ sociocultural background ? If so, are they still related after controlling for students’ proficiency? Is there an effect of average school performance after controlling for students’ background and proficiency? Is there a school social intake effect after controlling for students’ background and proficiency? Are the above-mentioned effects stronger in tracked or comprehensive systems?

3. Methodology • PISA 2003 database • 28 countries (all OECD countries, but Mexico and Turkey) • Main dependent variable=educational expectations : do students wish to attend higher education at the university level or not (level 5A and level 6 of ISCED classification)? • Independent variables: • Student-level : ESCS, gender, PISA mathematics scores (PV), PISA reading scores (PV); • School-level : ESCS mean, mathematics mean.

Statistical analyses • Logistic Regression analyses (OLS) for research questions 1 and 2, models by country; • Multilevel logistic regression analyses for research questions 3 and 4, models by country; • Correlations for question 5.

Table 1Impact of gender and SES on “university-level” educational expectations (odds ratio) • Odds ratio Significant at 0.05 ; ** : significant at 0.01 ; *** : significant at 0.001 • 1 Change per one standard deviation of the index • 2The reference category is boy

Table 2 Impact of gender and SES on expectations after controlling for academic performance • * Significant at 0.05 ; ** : significant at 0.01 ; *** : significant at 0.001

Table 3 Influence of individual characteristics and mean mathematics score per school on expectations • * Significant at 0.05 ; ** : significant at 0.01 ; *** : significant at 0.001

Table 4 Influence of mean academic performance of school (tracked systems; schools with academic tracks only) • * Significant at 0.05 ; ** : significant at 0.01 ; *** : significant at 0.001

Table 5 Influence of school social intake (mean ESCS per school) on educational expectations • * Significant at 0.05 ; ** : significant at 0.01 ; *** : significant at 0.001

4. Results • Characteristics of school systems • Correlation analyses between: • OR from previous analyses and • Age of the first selection • % of 15 year-olds attending non-academic tracks

Table 6 Stratification of education systems and expectations

Conclusions In all OECD countries, we observe a significant (and strong) relationship between SES and educational expectations, even after controlling for academic performance (social self-selection). Not only the students’ individual characteristics influence their expectations, the academic and the social composition of the school are also influential. Educational expectations are + and significantly related to school social intake and to academic composition in selective education systems (early selection and tracking). Those relationships are n.s. in comprehensive systems or even negative (BFLPE). Not only stratified systems are less equitable as far as achievement is concerned (what we knew); they also shape students’ expectations in a less equitable way.

Conclusions 5. The two latter findings are not congruent with Marsh & O’Hara (2010) and with their view that the BFLPE (mainly, a contrast effect) is observed not only for academic self-concept but also for educational aspirations. Maybe Marsh & O’Hara (2010) lacked of caution when generalizing evidence from US to all education systems. Our data are coherent with Marsh & O’Hara (2010) as far as US are concerned (negative effect of school average on expectations). From a theoretical point of view, our data confirm the value of the Dai & Rinn discussion about the non automaticity of the BFLPE. They consider that BFLPE is the sum of a contrast effect and an assimilation effect; the balance between both effects depend on the context characteristics. More generally, Buchmann& Park’s (2009) view that expectations are shaped in different ways depending on structural features of educational systems are confirmed for a larger set of countries.

References Dupriez , V., Monseur, C., Van Campenhoudt, M., & Lafontaine, D. (2012). Social Inequalities of Post-Secondary Educational Aspirations: Influence of Social Background, School Composition and Institutional Context. European Educational Research Journal, 11 (4), 504-519.

Vincent Dupriez (GIRSEF, Université de Louvain) D ominique Lafontaine ( Université de Liège)