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What Factors Affect Tropical Cyclogenesis?

What Factors Affect Tropical Cyclogenesis?. Earth2Class Workshop with Dr. Suzana J Camargo Originally Presented 11 Feb 2012. Tropical Cyclones…. …are huge low-pressure systems …the most powerful storms on earth …include “tropical depressions,” “tropical storms,” and “hurricanes”

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What Factors Affect Tropical Cyclogenesis?

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  1. What Factors Affect Tropical Cyclogenesis? Earth2Class Workshop with Dr. Suzana J CamargoOriginally Presented 11 Feb 2012

  2. Tropical Cyclones… • …are huge low-pressure systems • …the most powerful storms on earth • …include “tropical depressions,” “tropical storms,” and “hurricanes” • …have different names elsewhere in the world “typhoons” “wiliwilis” “OMGs” (but only in texting) (joke)

  3. Cyclones are part of Earth’s Circulation/Energy Transfer System http://rst.gsfc.nasa.gov/Sect14/atmospheric_circulation.jpg

  4. Big Ideas about Energy Transfer • Energy from the Sun travels to Earth as “Insolation” (Incoming Solar Radiation) • Amount received varies due to latitude, time of day, cloud cover, etc. • One-way flow, not a geochemical cycle http://earthfortress.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/heatrans.jpg

  5. “Earth’s Energy Budget” http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Atmosphere/images/earth_rad_budget_kiehl_trenberth_1997_big.gif

  6. What Causes Variations in Energy Absorption? Water and land do not warm up or cool down at the same rate Specific Heat (Heat Capacity) • Liquid water: 4.18 J/g-o C • Ice: 2.11 J/g-o C • Basalt: 0.84 J/g-o C • Granite: 0.79 J/g-o C

  7. Oceans can store tremendous amounts of heat energy • This energy can be transferred to the overlying atmosphere by conduction and convection

  8. The Hydrologic (Water) Cycle http://www-k12.atmos.washington.edu/k12/pilot/water_cycle/grabber2.html

  9. Latent Heat of Evaporation and Condensation • Changes of phase involve absorption and release of energy • No change in temperature occurs We can think of the energy as “hidden” “Latent” • Latent Heat of Evaporation L  G (absorbed • Latent Heat of Condensation G  L (released)

  10. What’s Needed to Create Clouds and Precipitation? • Moisture • Cooling • Condensation nucleiThe oceans provide vast amounts of water.Convection provides upward movement that results in cooling. Dust and sea salt provide suitable surfaces.

  11. Stages in Tropical Cyclogenesis Formation of a fully-develop cyclone involves three basic stages • Depressions • Storms • Hurricanes

  12. Intensity of Hurricanes Measured with the Saffir-Simpson Scale http://weather.about.com/od/imagegallery/ig/Weather-Image-of-the-Day/Saffir-Simpson-Scale.htm

  13. Atlantic/Pacific/Indian Oceans http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/climatology.php

  14. Forecasting Before Modern Observations • Galveston, 1900 http://1900storm.com/photographs/photo10.html

  15. Ship reports via radio • IF they survived, ships at sea might radio reports of storms and their locations http://teluguone.com/vinodam/wp-content/gallery/fishing-boat-caught-in-a-storm/fishing-boat-caught-in-a-storm-002.jpg

  16. Observing Hurricanes: Airplanes 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON "HURRICANE HUNTERS“Fly into and through storms to take observations and report in situ conditions

  17. Observing Hurricanes: Satellites GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites) System of 5 providing worldwide coverage http://www.goes.noaa.gov/goesfull.html

  18. Observing Hurricanes: Satellites • TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)http://trmm.gsfs.nasa.gov http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications_dir/wilma_05_n03.html

  19. TRMM images for Tropical Cyclone Jasmine

  20. TRMM Hurricanes & Typhoonshttp://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications_dir/multi_resource_tropical.html

  21. Cyclone Research • Locations • Frequency • Intensity • Statistical analyses • Patterns • New patterns that may be produce by climate change

  22. What Does the Future Hold? US Global Change Research Program www.globalchange.gov and 4th IPCC Report http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-es-13-tropical-cyclones.html call for improved climate models to predict better changes in frequency and characteristics of hurricanes and other severe weather WHAT DOES DR. CAMARGO’S RESEARCH TELL US?

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