The Changing Dynamics of the Global Market for the Highly-skilled

1. The Changing Dynamics of the Global Market for the Highly-skilled Andrew Wyckoff OECD Advancing Knowledge and the Knowledge Economy National Academies, Washington, D.C. 10 January 2005

3. US mean score ranks in range 24th to 28th in 41 countries. PISA: Mean mathematics scores – overall (All) OECD (2004), Learning for tomorrow’s world: First results from PISA 2003, Table 2.5c, p.356.

4. US as the benchmark

5. Competitiveness Rankings Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2004 and World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report, 2003-04

6. How could the authors of “A Nation at Risk” have gotten it so wrong?

7. Foreign PhD Students % of total enrolment, 2001 Number by host country, 2001

8. % of 1998-01 Foreign S&E US Degree Recipients with “plans to stay” in the US Source: NSF, S&E indicators, 2004

9. Stock of Highly Skilled* Immigrants in OECD Countries * Age 15+, ISCED 5/6 Source: Dumont and LeMaitre, 2004

10. Changing Dynamics of the Market • 9/11 • EU & Japan • China & India • MNEs

12. Annual Percent Change of International Student Enrolment in US Higher-education Institutions Source: IIE (2004), “Open Doors Report,” http://opendoors.iienetwork.org/

13. New Demand: the EU & Japan

14. EU Lisbon & Barcelona Goals • Lisbon 2000 • “The Union has today set itself a new strategic goal for the next decade:to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion. Barcelona 2002 [o]verall spending on R&D and innovation …should be increased with the aim of approaching 3% of GDP by 2010. Two-thirds of this new investment should come from the private sector.”

15. Additional Researchers Required to meet EC Barcelona 3% R&D Target

16. Japanese Foreign Workers w Special and/or Technical Skills Source: METI, 2003

17. New Demand: China & India

18. Number of Chinese students enrolled in tertiary education in the United States, Japan and the EU, thousands

19. Doctoral Degrees Awarded in China Source: Weiguo and Zhaohui, 2004

20. Number of researchers, thousands of FTE

21. Growth of R&D expenditure, annual average growth rate 1991-2001(based on national currencies in constant prices) Source: Schaaper, 2004

22. Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D(2002, $Bill GDP PPPs) Source: OECD, MSTI, 2004/1

23. Patent applications to the SIPO, by residence of inventors Note: Data are by priority year and are provisional. Source: OECD, Patent Database, July 2003

24. USPTO Patents by Chinese Inventors By Priority Date Source: OECD, Patent Database, December 2004

25. Policy Implications: an Initial Mapping 1. National Systems of Innovation (NSI) • Short-term: must compete in this global market • Long-term: need to increase indigenous supply • Increased global competition will make it will be more difficult for young researchers to be recognised, publish and get appointments at top-institutions (D.Hicks)

26. Policy Implications: an Initial Mapping 2. Macroeconomic Effects • Demand , Supply , then Price • Return flows will diffuse and create pressure to adopt push best practices (Saxenian) • Need for more global coordination of economic policies and data (esp. MNEs & flows of highly skilled) to guide these policies.

27. Policy Implications: an Initial Mapping 3. Extending the Global K-Network • Need to reconfigure the global knowledge network, • Tap into the “transnational technical communities” • Pivotal role of the US • Coordinating role of the IOs.