Unleashing Nigeria's Food Security Potential for Self-Sufficiency

1. THE COMPANIONAssociation of Muslim Men in Business and the Professions 4th National Discourse Theme: UNLEASHING NIGERIA’S NATURAL POTENTIALS FOR SELF SUFFICIENCY. Date: Sunday 14th July, 20119 (11th D. Qada, 1440 AH) Venue: J. F. Ade-Ajayi Auditorium (Former Main Auditorium), University of Lagos, Akoka.

2. TOPIC: FOOD SECURITY CHALLENGES IN NIGERIA – THE WAY FORWARD By Engr. Prof.Fola LASISI, FNIAE, FASCE, FNIM, FNSE, FAEng President, the Nigerian Academy of Engineering

3. OUTLINE • INTRODUCTION • NATIONAL REVIEW • AGRICULTURAL PROGRAMMES TO THE RESQUE • SELF SUFFICIENCY STRATEGIES FOR NIGERIA • CONCLUDING REMARKS TOPIC: FOOD SECURITY CHALLENGES IN NIGERIA – THE WAY FORWARD By Engr. Prof. Fola LASISI (President, Nigerian Academy of Engineering)

4. 1. INTRODUCTION This presentation is an issue that has remained critical for ages for Nigeria is at the invitation of the leaders of the COMPANION the Association of Muslim Men in Business and the Professionals. I am most grateful for the opportunity to share my understanding of the FOOD SECURITY CHALLENGES IN NIGERIA and the WAY FORWARD. Nigeria has always considered herself as the giant of Africa with its economy becoming the largest since 2014 till now, the poverty rate in the country is alarming (Omorogiuwa et al, 2014). Not less than 70% of the Nigerian population is surviving on less than a dollar per day while food insecurity prevalence in the low income urban house - holds and rural areas respectively stands at 79% and 71%

5. “….Nigeria, blessed as it is, with abundant agro-ecological resources and diversity, has become one of the largest food importers in sub-Saharan Africa…” (Idachaba 2009). The above quotation by Nigeria’s renowned agricultural economist epitomizes the central argument of this discourse that Nigeria’s food situation is not good enough. Any system where food demand is not sufficiently marched by supply is no doubt one with looming food crisis. The reality is that Nigeria is far from being completely food secured.

6. Nigeria is a country richly blessed with abundant natural and human resources that if properly harnessed can feed its people and export the surpluses to other countries, yet it is experiencing persistent food crisis both in terms of quantity and quality. Past efforts at improving food supply through agricultural production have not been and successful as planned. The programmes that were introduced only helped to alienate the peasant farmers who are the major producers of food in Nigeria. Some of the companies that had something to do with food production include:

7. Some of the companies that had something to do with food production include: The national Grains Production Company. National Root Crops Production Companies. North-east, Western and National Livestock Production Companies. The Nigerian National Shrimp Company. The Nigerian National Fish Company.

8. HistoricalBackground The Nigeria’s land size and applied usage are as shown below. Table 1. Land in Use Land Size Percentage (%) Quantity (million Ha) Total area 100 92.4 Land area 85.9 79.4 Water bodies 14.1 13.0 Land use Agricultural land 77.8 71.9 Arable cropland 30.5 28.2 Permanent cropland 2.7 2.5 Pastureland 30.6 28.3 Forest and woodland 11.6 10.9 FADAMA 2.2 2 Other land 8.1 7.5 Source: (Ezeanyanaso et al, 2013) Disappointingly, only about 28.2 million ha of the agricultural land is actually really being cultivated

9. Nigeria is grossly an agrarian state which is reflected in the fact that over 70% of her economically active population is employed in the agriculture sector (Muhammad - Lawal, 2015). • However, due to the discovery of oil in most of the south-south region of the country, agricultural activities have been grossly limited resulting from the consequential industrialization and frequent oil spillage.

10. Also, agricultural activities in the north are sometimes plagued by extreme weather conditions such as draught and flooding during the raining season. • The south - west and south - east have over the years had a relatively balance conditions for agriculture but unfortunately, these two regions also have the highest level of education in the country and mostly seek for opportunities outside the agriculture sector. The plan here is to highlight the challenges and outline as well as reinforce the activities that can, if implemented lead Nigeria on the way to self sufficiency in food production.

11. 2. NATIONAL REVIEW • Current Situation • Progress of agricultural season: Rainfall performance to date has been near-average across most of the country. (Figure 1). Figure 1. Agricultural start of rainfall season (anomaly) Source: USGS/FEWS NET

12. NATIONAL REVIEW 2 • Pastoral conditions: Water and pasture availability are gradually increasing across the country as the rainy season becomes established. • Labour and income: In most parts of the country, agricultural wage labour is providing typical levels of income for poor households during the cultivation season. • Market supplies and household food stocks: Market availability is generally good throughout most of the country. • Economy: Macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria continue to improve. Foreign exchange reserves continue to grow as global crude oil prices increase.

13. NATIONAL REVIEW 3 • Staple food prices: Staple food prices still remain well above average in many places, attributable in part to the depreciation of the naira against regional and international currencies. • Conflict:Conflict in northeast Nigeria continues to impact millions throughout the region as fatal attacks by Boko Haram continue. • Displacement: As of May 2018, IOM identified over 1.8 million people in the northeast displaced due to ongoing conflict. • Cholera out-break:The Nigeria Center for Disease Control revealed a total of 13,009 suspected cholera cases with 116 deaths from twelve (12) States across the country between January and late June 2018.

14. NATIONAL REVIEW 4 • Humanitarian assistance: The 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan for the food security sector is 45 percent funded as of late June. Humanitarian actors provided food assistance to 2.5 million people and livelihood support to 1.2 million people

15. NATIONAL REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS • ASSUMPTIONS • The most likely scenario for June 2018 to January 2019 is based on the following national level assumptions: • Conflict in the northeast: For the purpose of this scenario, it is assumed Boko Haram related conflict in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa States will continue at levels similar to what has been seen in recent months. • Conflict in central and northwestern areas:Farmer/pastoralist conflict, particularly in central and north - western states, will intensify as the growing season peaks. Adamawa State will continue to experience both Boko Haram related conflict as well as the farmer/herder conflict.

16. NATIONAL REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS 2 • Rainfall: The rainy season is expected to progress normally in most parts of the country. • Flooding and dry spells: Seasonal flooding is expected along major floodplains across the eight hydrological areas across the country. • Cessation of the rainy season:The Nigeria meteorological agency and other international forecast agencies revealed the normal end of the rainy season in October in the northern areas and December in the southern areas. • Main agricultural season:The agricultural season is expected to progress normally. The main season harvests will start normally in September/October across the country.

17. NATIONAL REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS 3 • Transhumance and pastoral resources: Pasture conditions and water availability will continue to improve normally across the country as the rainy season progresses. • Dry season activities: Off-season activities will begin normally in December as the water recedes along major floodplains. Restrictions on the importation of rice will likely lead to increased local rice production in many areas. • Market supplies and household food stocks: Between June and September, household and market stocks will continue to deplete normally. However, the lean season will be prolonged and more severe for households in the northeast affected by the conflict.

18. NATIONAL REVIEW ASSUMPTIONS 4 • Food prices:Staple food prices will continue to rise through the lean season, which ends in September 2018, as market demand increases, and trader stocks decrease. • Livestock supply, demand, prices: Livestock supply from Niger, Chad and Cameroon will increase as the Tabaski holiday in August approaches. However, market supplies will likely be below average due to limited purchasing power from Nigerian traders. • Humanitarian assistance:The food security sector response plan was only 45 percent funded in late June. Funding constrain will likely persist through the end of the year, at the same time food security needs remain high and new displacement continues.

19. NATIONAL REVIEW Cont./Food Security outcomes • Most households across the country are engaging in typical livelihood activities for the time of the year as the 2018 rainy season becomes established. While market dependence is seasonally high, most households are able to access income normally from agricultural activities, livestock sales, and other petty trade. • Others are engaged in other unskilled labour activities or are accessing seasonal loans to access markets. Given the likely good progression of the 2018 rainfall season, household food stocks from harvests will begin to be replenished by September/October, with average to above-average production expected in most areas.

20. NATIONAL REVIEW Cont./Food Security outcomes • In Boko Haram conflict-affected areas of the northeast, livelihoods for most households remain heavily disrupted. Agricultural and other income-earning opportunities remain restricted due to the direct impacts of the conflict and by the high levels of displacement. This is exacerbated by a typical market functioning and high prices.

21. EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE NIGERIA FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK

22. 3. AGRICULTURAL PROGRAMMES TO THE RESQUE • The following is the latest FAO report warning on Food Security in Nigeria. If the recommended actions are taken, Nigeria will be out of the woods. • HUNGER is ravaging the land. Worse, there is no end in sight as the latest forecast by the Food and Agriculture Organisation strongly projects that Nigeria’s efforts to achieve zero hunger by 2030 are being seriously undermined. • Already, signs of the food deficit are visible. The United Nations, the African Development Bank and the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, have described Nigeria as the global poverty capital. May and the AfDB declare that 80 per cent of the population are living in extreme poverty.

23. However, it is not that Nigeria cannot feed its citizens, but because of poor coordination, reliance on oil income and misplacement of priorities, all efforts fall flat. • This is why the FAO lists Nigeria as “one of the 37 countries in the world in need of external food assistance.” • Similarly, farmers lack safe water for irrigation and sanitation. Because of woeful rural roads and high cost of transportation, harvests rot on the farms before getting to the city. Storage and added - value are rudimentary. This makes yam, tomato, pepper, cassava, fruits and vegetables expensive. Thus, farmers miss revenue and the people go hungry.

24. The drive by the government to mitigate the food deficit is being jeopardised by nature. Uncontrollable flooding has destroyed crops in the food-producing states. • Concurrently, the Boko Haram conflict is driving away farmers from their homes in North - East Nigeria. The effect of the attacks on food production is damaging. • All this leaves Nigeria in a desperate situation. • The former Minister of State for Agriculture, Heineken Lokpobiri, stated that Nigeria imported food annually with $22 billion. With the economy comatose, this is neither sustainable nor wise.

25. Therefore, local remedies are imperative in reversing the deficit. Among them is an integrated transport system that will enable harvests to reach their intended destinations on time. • Therefore, we need a clear road map on rural roads. With the economy looking to rebound, the MuhammaduBuhari administration should open up the rail sector to international investors. Simultaneously, this brings in foreign direct investment and aids the movement of produce and goods. • There is the need to provide quality seed. This comes through research. For now, the universities of agriculture, the research institutes and colleges of agriculture are not effective in this area. They should be revived. Government should guarantee low - priced loans

26. Furthermore, the insecurity ravaging the country demands a fresh impetus, for without curbing the Boko Haram insurgency and the Fulani herdsmen menace, it is near impossible for farming to flourish. Government should encourage ranching and deal decisively with the insurgents, and encourage the use of technology to process farm produce. • Hence, my assertion that the long known fact that in the end, agriculture in the main with improved inputs and mechanisation will clearly help Nigeria, not just to feed her population, but to help materialise the industrialisation programme.

27. 4. SELF SUFFICIENCY STRATEGIES FOR NIGERIA • Going by its definition, food security however will not be achieved by simply increasing the production of food. Even when food is sufficiently available, a poor hungry man will remain food insecure as long as he cannot afford to buy it. Hence, all four components viz.; availability, accessibility, utilization and stability must be present. • How then can food security be objectives be met in Nigeria? The panacea lies in improving agricultural productivity; enhancing science and technology; building farmers capacity; facilitating access to the market; and good governance amongst others.

28. SELF SUFFICIENCY STRATEGIES FOR NIGERIA/2 • In this case, the strategies for achieving food security are categorized into economic, social, environmental and technological strategies. • Technological Strategies • Crop rotation and diversification: • Irrigation system: • Promotion of mechanized farming system: • Agricultural biotechnology: • Environmental Strategies • Improved management of industrial effluents: • Regulation of the use of fertilizers and other agro-chemicals:

29. SELF SUFFICIENCY STRATEGIES FOR NIGERIA/3 Economic Strategies: Promoting decent employment in the agriculture sector: Promoting the non-farm economy in the rural areas: Provision of credit and incentives: Social Strategies Social networking and organized farmers cooperation: Accessible education: Provision of infrastructure:

30. 5. CONCLUDING REMARKS • The presentation has so far shown the available evidence of very serious challenges. The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the UN has made clear some of the critical actions for the best ways forward. I am here repeating the authoritative proposals. • In addition, there is the “Agricultural Subsidy” debate which many countries have long operated. Unfortunately, international bodies avoid encouraging Nigeria to have this as a primary focus. Agriculture has always been labour intensive. The young ones have long been running away for many reasons. If a well designed and religiously implemented programme of subsidy in agriculture is adopted, I am convinced the value added programmes will truly make a difference.

31. The following five quotations may be helpful • “It’s clear that agriculture, done right is the best means the world has today to simultaneously tackle food security, poverty and environmental degradation” • Irene ROSENFELD • “Innovations that are guided by small holder farmers, adapted to local circumstances, and sustainable for the economy and the environment will be necessary to ensure food security in the future” • Bill GATES

32. “Sustainable energy plus food security and healthy environment will result full employment and better future” • Phil HARDING • “Saving own planet, lifting people out of poverty, advancing economic growth, these are one and the same fight. We must connect the dots between climate change, water scarcity, energy shortages, global health, food security and women’s empowerment. solutions to one problem must be solutions for all” • Ban Ki-moon

33. It is time to change the way we think, Farmers are not they cause of Africa’s poverty; They are a potential solution, they are key to creating the future envisioned by the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals)” • Kofi ANNAN

34. I thank everyone for your love, attention and patience. Engr. Prof. Fola LASISI President, Nigerian Academy of Engineering