Wyoming's Hathaway Scholarship Program and Workforce Outcomes

1. Wyoming’s Hathaway Scholarship Program and Workforce OutcomesPresented to: Joint Education Interim Committee, Casper, WYJune 13, 2016Presented by: Tom Gallagher, ManagerTony Glover, Workforce Information SupervisorResearch & PlanningWyoming Department of Workforce Serviceshttp://doe.state.wy.us/lmi/ Revised, Annotated, June 15, 2016

2. Research & Planninghttp://doe.state.wy.us/LMI OUR ORGANIZATION: R&P is a separate, exclusively statistical entity. WHAT WE DO: R&P collects, analyzes, and publishes timely and accurate labor market information (LMI) meeting established statistical standards. OUR CUSTOMERS: LMI makes the labor market more efficient by providing the public and the public’s representatives with the basis for informed decision making.

3. Research & Planning’s Mission: To establish an empirically based comprehensive understanding of the labor market: its constituent elements, systems integrating its components, and subsequent outcomes.

4. How Research & Planning Is Funded: • U.S. Department of Labor Contracts & Grants (Research offices in all states) • Bureau of Labor Statistics Contracts • Workforce Information Grant • Workforce Data Quality Initiative (WDQI) 3-year competitive grant -2013 Award • $722,000 • Build and populate data warehouse

5. Research & Planning’s USDOL Workforce Data Quality Initiative Grant Activity WDQI Purpose • States enable their workforce systems to be linked to existing education data systems Goals • Use longitudinal data to evaluate the performance of federally and State-supported education and job training programs • Provide user-friendly information to consumers to help them select the education and training programs that best suit their needs • Enhance knowledge about the workforce system and the impact of State workforce development programs Source: U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training, Notice of Availability of Funds and Solicitation for WDQI Grant, SGA-DFA-PY-12-07

6. Our Goal For Today is to Report On: Session Laws of Wyoming, 2008 Ch. 95 [SECTION 9. HATHAWAY STUDENT SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM LONGITUDINAL STUDY] Section 901. • A study of the long term effects of the Hathaway student scholarship program on students in Wyoming high schools using a random sampling of students • Factors to be tracked and information gathered for the study shall include but not be limited to employment, location of employment, and earnings level after leaving a post secondary education Session Laws of Wyoming, 2012 Ch. 26[EDUCATION ACCOUNTABILITY DATA SYSTEMS] Section 326. • Funds are appropriated to the department of workforce services, office of research and planning, to conduct data collection and analysis necessary for the education resource block grant model • To assist with the collection and analysis of data necessary for the long term effects of the Hathaway student scholarship program on Wyoming high school students

7. Session Laws of Wyoming, 2008 Ch. 95 [SECTION 9. HATHAWAY STUDENT SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM LONGITUDINAL STUDY] Section 901. (a) For the period commencing July 1, 2008, and ending June 30, 2010, one hundred thirty-five thousand dollars ($135,000.00) is appropriated from the school foundation program account to the department of education to conduct a study of the long term effects of the Hathaway student scholarship program on students in Wyoming high schools. Using a random sampling of students beginning grade nine (9), the study shall track the following three (3) student cohorts for at least ten (10) years after high school graduation: (i) A cohort group comprised of students beginning grade nine (9) in the school year immediately preceding the school year in which the Hathaway student scholarship program was implemented; (b) The size of the sampling under subsection (a) of this section shall be sufficiently large to enable a statistically significant sample size. Individual student information used within the study under this section shall be confidential and the department shall ensure appropriate student confidentiality measures are incorporated in the conduct of the study. (d) Factors to be tracked and information gathered for the study shall include but not be limited to: (vii) Employment, location of employment, and earnings level after leaving a post secondary education program at a college or the university. (e) On or before October 1 of each year in which the study is conducted, the department shall submit study progress reports to the joint education interim committee.

8. Session Laws of Wyoming, 2012 Ch. 26 [EDUCATION ACCOUNTABILITY DATA SYSTEMS] Section 326. (a) Based upon efforts initiated under 2003 Wyoming Session Laws,… Session Laws of Wyoming, 2008 Chapter 95, Section 901 (d) For purposes of supporting the data monitoring process within the education resource block grant model, and to support other education information data needs and analysis , up to five hundred thousand dollars ($500,000.00) is appropriated from the deferred account for the period commencing on the effective date of this section and ending June 30, 2014, to the department of workforce services, office of research and planning, to conduct data collection and analysis necessary for the education resource block grant model monitoring process is required under W.S. 21-13-309(u), and to assist with the collection and analysis of data necessary for the long term effects of the Hathaway student scholarship program on Wyoming high school students and other data collection and analysis efforts which may be required to carry out this section.

9. Consultants to R&P • Senior Methodological Advisor, Administrative Data DivisionNational Center for Education StatisticsU.S. Department of Education • Office of Workforce InvestmentEmployment and Training AdministrationU.S. Department of Labor • Assistant Commissioner for Occupational Statistics and Employment ProjectionsBureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Department of Labor • Follow-Up ManagerTexas Workforce Commission • DirectorWorkforce Data Quality Campaign • Director of Research & EvaluationJohn J. Heldrich Center for Workforce DevelopmentRutgers University • Consultant and former Executive Director The Jacob France Institute in the Merrick School of BusinessUniversity of Baltimore

10. Introduction to Report Components 1. Report Overview 2. Contingencies, Inputs, and Constraints 3. Linear Perspective on Student Outcomes in the Labor Market

11. Report Overview Methodology-How we answer the three questions: BA/BSAA/AS 1. Hathaway Effects (Preliminary) MaleFemaleMaleFemale • Employment N N N N • Location of employment N YN N • Location of earnings Y Y Y N 2. Age and Gender are factors in segmented student educational and market strategies. • Who attends postsecondary • What fields of study students pursue • Outcomes in the workplace • Migration • Earnings 3. Student education and workplace strategies can be detected early and follow discernable patterns: • Extent and patterns of workplace attachment • Financing graduation

12. How State Research Offices Track & Measure Returns on Training & Education Investments Use the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Tax record of worker earnings linked on social security numbers to training program participants. Traditional Questions addressed with UI earnings linked to training & education: • Which re-employment training programs and services are most effective in returning UI claimants to work? • Which education courses of study result in steady work and real earnings gains? • Which training programs are effective in attaining self-sufficiency for low income workers? Research & Planning’s strategy: Use the WDQI funding to answer Traditional Questions and evaluate Hathaway Scholarship outcomes.

13. R&P Has Engaged in Student Tracking, UI Re-Employment Training Programs Outcomes, and Workforce & Employment Earnings Progression for Over 20 Years Tracking University of Wyoming Graduates Into the Wyoming Work-Force, pg. 17. WYDWS R&P S. Butler 09/17/95

14. Research & Planning’s UI Wage Records & Employer Characteristic Sharing Agreements

15. WDQI Warehouse Timeline 1. 2008 Session Law Ch. 95 Sec 9-HSP Longitudinal Study 2. 2012 Session Law Ch. 26 Sec 326-Block Grant Model Monitoring HSP Longitudinal Study 3. 7/13 WDQI Data Warehouse Funding $722K 4. 1/14 WDE MOU signed 5. 2/14 WDE files arrive 6. 10/14 WCCC MOU signed 7. 4/15 WCCC first files arrive 8. 4/15 first WDE linked to wage records report published 9. 4/15 UW MOU signed 10. 1/16 UW files arrive 11. 2/16 WCCC files validated, imported into warehouse 12. 4/16 files validated, output sent to UW 13. 6/16 Hathaway Project to Joint Ed. WDQI Warehouse Design & Development 4/16 files validated, output sent to UW 4/21/16-6/2/16: R&P timeline to create report 1/16 UW files arrive Files validated, output sent to WCCC Files Validated, Output sent to WDE 10 12 1 7 5 3 6 4 11 13 ’08 Session Laws: HSP Longitudinal Study 4/15 UW MOU signed 2/14 WDE files arrive 4/15 WCCC first files arrive 7/13 WDQI Data Warehouse Funding $722K 10/14 WCCCMOU signed 1/14 WDE MOU signed 9 2/16 WCCC files validated, imported into warehouse 2 6/16 Hathaway Project to Joint Education ’12 Session Laws: BGM Monitoring Longitudinal Study 8 4/15 First WDE linked to wage records report published July 2013 June 2016 2008

16. Factors Affecting Education Outcomes • Age • Gender • Changes in the Hathaway program • Changes in educational infrastructure itself

21. Forward 1. Organize student records into graduation financing strategies. 2. Transforming graduation financing strategies into outcomes analysis. 3. Compare outcomes in the labor market for Hathaway financing to control groups who financed their graduation by other means.

22. College Financing Strategies

24. Hathaway Content Hathaway incentives are not a constant over time. Therefore, we do not expect Hathaway impact to be a constant over time. Hathaway=Scholarship Dollars + High School Success Curriculum • Scholarship dollars do not replace the same amount of tuition and other student costs over time • The proportion of students receiving each type of award (Provisional Opportunity, Opportunity, Performance, Honors) changes over time • Success Curriculum phase-in over SY 2007-2008 through SY 2010-2011 Contemporary Resource Investments and Incentives in Wyoming Education • Substantial increase in Education Block Grant Funding. Wyoming teacher salaries rose 17.3% from SY 2005-06 to SY 2006-07 • Pell Grant awards in Wyoming rose by 39.4% in Award Year 2009-10 (from 8,099 awards in 2008-09 to 11,286) and again by 26.5% in Award Year 2010-11

25. Females NRow %

27. Male Graduates N % Female Graduates N %

28. Bachelor’s Degrees Figure 4: All UW BA/BS Graduates Working in Wyoming or 11 Partner States by Financing Strategy (Control Groups)

29. Bachelor’s Degrees Figure 5: Male UW BA/BS Graduates Working in Wyoming or 11 Partner States by Financing Strategy (Control Groups)

30. Bachelor’s Degrees Figure 6: Female UW BA/BS Graduates Working in Wyoming or 11 Partner States by Financing Strategy (Control Groups)

31. Bachelor’s Degrees Figure 7: Mean Quarterly Wage of All UW BA/BS Graduates Working in Wyoming or 11 Partner States by Financing Strategy (Control Groups)

32. Bachelor’s Degrees Figure 8: Mean Quarterly Wage of Male UW BA/BS Graduates Working in Wyoming or 11 Partner States by Financing Strategy (Control Groups)

33. Bachelor’s Degrees Figure 9: Mean Quarterly Wage of Female UW BA/BS Graduates Working in Wyoming or 11 Partner States by Financing Strategy (Control Groups)

34. Associate’s Degrees Figure 10: All Wyoming Community College AA/AS Graduates Working in Wyoming or 11 Partner States by Financing Strategy (Control Groups)

35. Associate’s Degrees Figure 11: Male Wyoming Community College AA/AS Graduates Working in Wyoming or 11 Partner States by Financing Strategy (Control Groups)

36. Associate’s Degrees Figure 12: Female Wyoming Community College AA/AS Graduates Working in Wyoming or 11 Partner States by Financing Strategy (Control Groups)

37. Associate’s Degrees Figure 13: Mean Quarterly Wage of All Wyoming Community College AA/AS Graduates Working in Wyoming or 11 Partner States by Financing Strategy (Control Groups)

38. Associate’s Degrees Figure 14: Mean Quarterly Wage of Male Wyoming Community College AA/AS Graduates Working in Wyoming or 11 Partner States by Financing Strategy (Control Groups)

39. Associate’s Degrees Figure 15: Mean Quarterly Wage of Female Wyoming Community College AA/AS Graduates Working in Wyoming or 11 Partner States by Financing Strategy (Control Groups)

40. Report Recap • Hathaway impact has a positive direction for the retention of Bachelor’s, and female Bachelor’s who stay in Wyoming earn more than those who leave. However, the statistical test of Bachelor’s retention and earnings differences for females are equivocal and unconvincing. 1. Hathaway Effects • Employment • Location of employment • Location of earnings 2. Age and Gender are factors in substantially related to: • Who attends postsecondary • What fields of study students pursue • Outcomes in the workplace • Migration 3. Student education and workplace strategies can be detected early and follow discernable patterns

41. Appendix • Postsecondary Scholarship Analysis for Higher Education, High Degree/Award Status, and College Financing Strategy: 2008/09-2014/15 • (pg. A1) • WDQI Warehouse Analysis: Financial Path to Graduation for All Students in Public Education 2008/09 to 2014/15 for Wyoming. (pg. A2) • Descriptive Statistics for Wyoming Community Colleges, AA/AS Awards, and College Financing Strategies for Completion Years 2008/09 to 2014/15 (pg. A3) • Descriptive Statistics for University of Wyoming, BA/BS Awards, and College Financing Strategies for Completion Years 2008/09 to 2014/15 • (pg. A4)

42. Females TotalN %

43. WDQI Warehouse Analysis: Financial Path to Graduation for All Students in Public Education 2008/09 to 2014/15 for Wyoming.