Precipitation Distribution in Serbia and Montenegro in 2003

1. DROUGHT IN 2003. IN SERBIA AND MONTENEGROJasminka Smailagi}, j.smailagic@hidmet.sr.gov.yuSmilja Djordjevi}, s.djordjevic@hidmet.sr.gov.yuRepublic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia

2. INTRODUCTION This paper describes territory and annual distribution of precipitation in Serbia and Montenegro in 2003. Daily data of precipitation from 28 main meteorological stations of Republic Hydrometeorologic Services were used. Percentiles were used as the statistical criteria for the dry period occurence . Results are presented in the form of tables and over the geographical charts, so it is obvious which regions in Serbia and Montenegro had precipitation below and above normal values in 2003.

3. DATA AND METHODS Most frequently used statistical parameter for precipitation is the mean value («average» or «normal») which is identical with median in the case of normal or Gauss distribution. Non-parametric methods such as fractiles give better results of precipitation analysis. Fractiles provide the information on the deviation of the amount of precipitation from the mean as critical values of precipitation at the particular stations. Critical boundaries for percentiles are as follows:

4. 1 extremely dry 2-9 very dry 10-24 dry 25-75 normal 76-90 humid 91-98 very humid > 98 extremely humid On the territory of SCG, significant deviations from the average values of the most important meteorological elements were characteristic for the major part of the year 2003 (see fig. 1,fig. 2,tab. 1 andtab. 2,).

5. Fig. 1. Annual precipitation totals in Belgrade (left)Fig. 2. Anomalies of annual mean temperature in Belgrade (right)

6. Table 1. Month precipitations and available percentiles at Main meteorological stations in SCG in 2003.

7. Table 2. Seasonal, vegetation period and annual precipitations and available percentiles at Main meteorological stations in SCG in 2003.

8. The first two months of the year, and especially February, were marked with very low air temperatures and a great number of freezing days with ice and snow cover. In March, temperatures were within normal values, but the situation was very unfavourable considering precipitation quantities, that is, precipitation amounts were extremely low in the whole country (see Figure 3). Figure 3. Precipitation amounts deficit (%) distribution in March in SCG

9. Positive deviations of mean maximum and minimum temperatures were extremely high (see fig.4). The number of tropical days was exceptionally high, from 7 to 13 in May and from 12 to 21 in June. Characteristic event was the continual duration of ten tropical days in a row in the first half of May and again in the first half of June. Total precipitation amounts in most of the country were far lower than the multiannual averages. According to the percentiles of precipitation distribution, the major part of the country was very dry in June. Figure 4. Anomalies of the mean maximum temperatures in SCG in June 2003, reference period 1961-1990

10. After the usual climate conditions in September, very rainy October followed. Total precipitation was two to four times higher than normal values. On the contrary, November was warmer than average, with precipitation deficit in the whole country (see fig. 5). According to the percentiles of precipitation distribution, it was a dry month on seven stations and very dry on one station. Figure 5. Precipitation in percent of 1961 – 1990 normal in SCG in November 2003

11. On the basis of the above, it can be concluded that weather characteristics in 2003 were extreme deviations of air temperatures from the multiannual averages in the first half of the year, high number of days in a row with high temperatures (³ 25, 30 and 35oC) in period May-August, pronounced precipitation deficit in spring and summer part of the year (see fig. 6), as well as extremely high precipitation amount in October. Figure 6. Precipitation in percent of 1961-1990 normal in SCG for the MarchAugust period in 2003

12. CONCLUSIONS According to the percentiles of precipitation distribution, the major part of the country was dry and extremely dry in spring and summer. In 2003, on the annual level and according to percentiles of precipitation distribution, on eleven observed stations dry conditions prevailed. On the rest of analyzed stations humidity conditions were normal.